812 Market Dynamics | Page 9 | FerrariChat

812 Market Dynamics

Discussion in 'F12/812' started by 1881, May 19, 2019.

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  1. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Veteran
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    Feb 4, 2014
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    Maximus Decimus Meridius
    And roof rack. :(
     
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  2. 1881

    1881 Karting

    Dec 21, 2016
    241
    Some interesting dynamics in the UK over the past couple of weeks

    • Since March/ April basically no cars appeared to get sold for months
    • Since June market got flooded with cars, jumping from about 15 cars to about 40 offered in a number of weeks
    • All cars basically new with less than 1000 miles
    • Prices started to drop from c. £340/350 for most cars to now about £320-330
    • Inventory started to move very recently (last 2 weeks) and now there are about 30 cars in the market
    • Dealers appear to replenishing inventory
    Seems the 812 has now found a clearing price in the UK market at 320/330 for 6-9 months old car with less than 1000 miles (at least that are the ask prices that are being negotiated)

    Given that stocks at dealers get replenished, this indicates that sales actually happen rather than cars being taken off the market (although some cars got taken off and then re-advertised)

    Anybody more insights/ anybody recently bought/ sold a car? Interested to hear other views / insights
     
  3. montpellier

    montpellier Formula Junior

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    V12 Ferrari depreciates . Almost all cars depreciate. Full market insight.
     
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  4. 1881

    1881 Karting

    Dec 21, 2016
    241
    Thanks for sharing your insights

    For some people that's enough, for some it isn't

    For the ones that enjoy the finer things in life and appreciate going beyond where the majority stops...pls share your views....there was a good discussion going few weeks ago
     
  5. montpellier

    montpellier Formula Junior

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    What exactly are you asking ? You describe the market then ask for an insight ? Insight to what ? What are you concerned about ? What has that got to do with the finer things in life.
     
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  6. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3

    Apr 2, 2012
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    Trade number is 280/300 for a good car in the UK
     
  7. mgmoore

    mgmoore Rookie

    Jul 16, 2010
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    SoCal
    I ordered an 812 because that was the car I wanted.
    I am not going to worry about if it will value up or down 15%.
    Get the car that you can and then enjoy the hell out of it....and don't look back.
     
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  8. 1881

    1881 Karting

    Dec 21, 2016
    241
    What I described is an outside in view, so it's interesting to get views from people that are in the market either buying or selling

    There is no concern per se....it's a forum for people to discuss things all things related 812....my interest (and others as well) is in how the market for 812 is evolving....the strategy of the brand is changing and that is impacting after market....price stability is a key attraction for many buyers....so it's interesting to see what's happening

    Finer things....ppl that want more than just the basics...yes cars depreciate....but there's more to that....as per above

    Appreciate if that's not of interest to you....nobody is forcing you to read our reply....just live and let live....
     
  9. 1881

    1881 Karting

    Dec 21, 2016
    241
    One can take an interest in the market dynamics regardless if one is worried or not
     
  10. 1881

    1881 Karting

    Dec 21, 2016
    241
    Remember you stated that few weeks ago and that dealers are not wanting cars....but seems that dynamic changed and dealers are replenishing stock

    I am curious to see if with the market starting to clear the margins will tighten....and it's August..so when people are going to be back from holidays there might be more demand, but at the same time we'll be approaching winter and brexit...will be interesting to see how things will evolve
     
  11. Griffon83

    Griffon83 Formula Junior

    Dec 5, 2016
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  12. 1881

    1881 Karting

    Dec 21, 2016
    241
    Yeah... At some point there we +20% of UK 812s on the market, which given it's a 1 year old car with a long (?) waiting list is quite surprising.... Seems equally in other markets there is nothing of the 'last na v12' aura
     
  13. arizonaitalian

    arizonaitalian F1 World Champ
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    #213 arizonaitalian, Aug 18, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2019
    Regular production V12 and "price stability" in the same sentence? I'm confused...

    1881 - I think the view from many reading this thread and its evolution is "what's the question"?

    Meaning...regular production V12 Ferrari's, in the Fiat and post era, have pretty much followed a common price path. Like most Ferrari's they are traded at good prices while production ramps, and then after one year from introduction, the secondary market fills, and prices start their inevitable decline. What's different about the 812?

    Anyone expecting "the last NA" thing to hold prices on cars is likely to be disappointed. Or, at best, its going to a long-time coming (perhaps like the rebound in true manual prices). But, imho, the "last NA thing", is not a thing.

    I think you are over-thinking this. 812 is following the usual path +/- (with the +/- considered to be noise level for the most part).
     
  14. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3

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    Perhaps, I think dealers in all luxury marques are super careful now and much is on SOR with the risk transferred. Also the Ferrari UK market and dealer concentration is small enough to be manipulated to a degree. There is a common interest on many fronts to create a certain impression. Try to get cash out of a dealer right now is very hard.

    I think the much anticipated and commented upon challenges from Eco, electric, young people, limited wage growth and stunted property market (no ability to remortgage) plus more stringent PCP financing guidelines (Lloyd’s getting burned on Diesel PCP) are finally biting.

    Great article in theTelegraph today reminding readers of the challenges of encouraging people to buy cars which are the same except for comfort and entertainment - in the next business cycle. I think it could go either way - current cars prized or pretty worthless, I favour the latter.
     
  15. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3

    Apr 2, 2012
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    It’s not sold out, cancellations coming in as people see the secondary market soft. To the extent it is hard to get that is caused by limited capacity and production (Monza, 812 conv etc)
     
  16. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,242
    Austin TX
    However, if the 812 is the "last of the V12s" thing (outside of hypercar and icona series), what do you think then?

    Even Audi/Lamborghini is now saying they might not do a V12 hybrid and just keep the current V12 for a few more years and then go with V8 Hybrid replacement...
    https://www.caradvice.com.au/782386/2024-lamborghini-aventador-v8/
     
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  17. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
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    It depends on if the next group of buyers prizes the same things we tend to prize (V12 feel, sound, fury). They might not. If they do, all of a sudden an 812 might be seen as a bit of the way the Daytona was seen for a long time, the best iteration (among open production Ferraris).
     
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  18. kane00

    kane00 Formula Junior
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    This is spot on.

    In the "new" world order of "public" Ferrari where selling chassis (shareholders want results and numbers) the old days of buying and being able to retain value or make money is gone. Ferrari is making way too many cars (and models) and the basic principles of supply and demand are catching up.
     
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  19. montpellier

    montpellier Formula Junior

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    Even worse, you order a latest model, yet after 1 or 2 years, when it still has not arrived, they have launched a whole raft of new models. So you think , when the original car arrives, you got an old model. But there are probably a whole load of new to the brand customers who will take up any slack, so in the end as a business they can keep sailing on. Of course short memories are dangerous things and a few of us remember dealers begging us to take cars when the less committed takes runner. Plus with alternatives in the market place, and they are all producing many more vehicles in the upper segment, the customer has choice. The real issue, for all of them really, is the second and third owner. To make the business model work, you got to think of the 5 to 10 year old car. It is a very complex. business model that is for sure.

    But back to 812, the. current dip is similar to f12, which then recovered after about 18 months of cars arriving into market. 812 is more interesting due to spider, which may, or may not be like a 488 spider that gives you two cars in one so making the coupe less desirable. In 2 weeks we will know. The only saving grace for coupe will be the GPF that will mute external sounds, though rumoured that the interior, or driver experience will remain similar to pre GPF, plus the relative lack of supply of coupes, dealers already noting future allocations dropping off as the line starts to plan the move to spider, and then finally the design itself , how will it look. They still have some lightweight/faster versions to produce too, with time on production line running down. Then the final piece of the jigsaw arrives when the new generation V12 platform arrives , and whatever that will mean to the drivetrain solution (V12 NA/Turbo/Hybrid etc.etc.). As for the depreciation, well take the F12, I think my uk car listed at 270k back in 2012/13 , saw it for sale recently at over 200k . Great car that they are. F12/812 wonderful Ferrari cars, to enjoy and appreciate (emotionally) , as they are clearly getting closer to the end game of a certain technology, it is certainly not a decade away, as it is impossible to meet legislation. In that decade or so, we may all be reminiscing about the ICE , and the challenge for all of the sports/toy/luxury makers will be to define what their brand means within that context. For many "old timers" like me no matter how fast, dynamic and impressive electric can be, it is the ICE that drives my passion, and I intend to enjoy that for as long as I can, a different generation can use the electric. So go and buy your 812 , it might not be a numbered edition but of the 7.5 billion people on the planet, only 3000 (ish) will ever have one, how many zeros is that as a percentage 0.0000x% How limited do you want ? It is a privilege to drive any Ferrari, if you can afford it just do it.
     
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  20. GameMaker

    GameMaker Formula Junior
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    Nobody buying an 812 new really cares much about depreciation imho.

    You think only 3000 will be made?
     
  21. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,242
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    There will be more than 3000 "812 all variants" made, if Spider production takes off, the coupes may only just barely achieve 3000+ (worldwide), I suspect total production of the 812 (coupe, spider, VS) will be close to that of the F12. However, the number of pre-GPF cars (coupes only) will be rather limited, in the USA it appears to be less than 600-700, still a good sized number to be sure, we'll have to see the impact of the GPF, will be very interesting to see what Ferrari does.

    However, I think the more important item is 'IF' there is a "next" V12 platform, remember Michael Leiters proclaiming to fight for the V12 what if there is no future V12 platform, then, the 812 would be the last of the V12s ever made (outside of Icona/Hypercar), and then things change in a big way, very big way. I think Ferrari releasing the Monza and 812 Spider has something to do with this possibility of no more V12s ever (in regular production). After all, the 812 coupe design was not made with the idea of it being "eventually" offered as a Spider, it is being retrofitted...very important to consider when was the last time Ferrari offered a V12 Spider in regular production? Things that make me go 'hmmmmm', hedging their bets that they will never again have this opportunity so make it happen now.
     
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  22. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
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    There are parallels to the 365 GTB/4 "Daytona".

    They have replaced the front V12 2 seater as the flagship with the mid engine V8 turbo hybrid AWD. I think no matter what, if there is a successor V12 model, it very likely will be not as sporting in intent- likely to be more GT oriented.
     
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  23. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Veteran
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    Ferrari continues to offer the NA V12 and not assisted either. IMHO no one will care about the the distinction of "regular production". I know I won't because its the engine that really matters and the 812 is not a very popular car to begin with and they've been using the same chassis on the newer models. No doubt to get around $1.5-$2M for more replicants the V12 will be further improved in performance lessening the probability anyone will really care. Just my personal opinion.
     
  24. BJK

    BJK F1 Rookie

    Jul 18, 2014
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    Chris Harris, today on Twitter: While ago I thought I’d buy a new Ferrari - an 812. Usual story for such a purchase - worked hard, saved, thought I’d buy one new F car in my life, and I love the 812. But cost was insane, and so many people seemed to have one on order. Spooked - I cancelled. Very glad I did.

     
  25. Napoli

    Napoli Formula Junior

    Nov 18, 2017
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    NOYB, Ray!

    Napoli, today on FChat: "Buying one anyway."
     
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