Six races left. What are the chances Hamilton doesn't win

Next year!

 

Mmmm, don’t count on it...

... even if I would LOVE to see this happen!

 

Let's do the maths.

If Leclerc wins the last 6 GP and takes the 6 fastest laps, he can collect 156 pts.
He already has 200 pts, so would finish with 356 pts at most.

Hamilton already has 296 pts, so only need to score 61 pts to be WDC in that scenario.
That's about 10 pts per race.

 

Why CL and not Vettel lol ? i know , just kidding

 

I think Vettel is 6 pts behind Leclerc.

 

zero percent

 

None this year, none next year.

 

So you're saying there's a chance....

Yes, it's remote. I will just hope for a strong season finish for Scuderia Ferrari, multiple podiums/wins, and high morale into the off-season. If lightning strikes, then so much the better.

And oh, if LH must win the WDC let his coronation occur after COTA, and not on the podium.

 

Crapilton would need to stuff it or be stuffed several times...and it would be nice a couple of Mercedes breakdowns...otherwise...forget it....

 

"And oh, if LH must win the WDC let his coronation occur after COTA, and not on the podium.[Nortonious]"

Agreed! I'm going to my first F1 race in Austin, will love it a lot more without that happening!

 

He's bound to win again, plus he has new tactics up his sleeves.

 

Mercedas is not going to take being beaten 3 times on the trot lightly.

 

Yes, plus they have been generous enough to let the opposition win 5 times already to please Liberty !

 

In the recent "Ferrari has the best car thread" it's been suggested Merc has possibly moved on to development for next year. It seems a reasonable thought. But I also don't think Merc wants to limp into the WCC/WDC with Ferrari netting most of the remaining wins.

Sochi will be interesting.

I know!! These new tactics just may change F1 forever!

 

One Mercedes could collapse, but two would be more than bad luck. It would be a curse or massive bans at Ferrarichat.

 

2 DNF's by ham are needed to bring us into the fight.

 

Please, no Michael Buffer at CoTA.

 

There are all kinds of combinations, but here's an interesting one if Charles wins the next 6 and has the fastest lap in each race, he would end up with 356 points. If Lewis finishes 5th in each of the remaining 6 races, he too would have 356 points Lewis would win the WDC because he has more second place finishes (3) to Charles' 2.
If it got down to the number of third place positions, Charles would win 4 to 1.
So many variations, and the possibility of DNF's but nothing is impossible!

 

I want to see Verstappen back into it

 

Unfortunately I think that all that’s happening is Merc has just taken 2020 sandbagging to a new level and time.

 

Perhaps some tangles with Max ?
Lewis is looking fairly average now that his car is no longer pre-eminent

 

I've been musing that Toto is being Macivalliean. Mercedes already knows they have the championship locked. Hamilton knows he needs to 'coast' to his 5th championship. I believe they might be purposely letting the foot off the gas (quite literally) to give Ferrari a false sense of accomplishment.
It brings me no pleasure to say this. Of course I"m happy Ferrari won the last 3, but it's just fun and games at this point.
Focus on next year, and I'll believe a 'real' resurgence is at play when they win in Australia 2020.
By the way, I hope I'm wrong.

 

It would take (4) dnfs to make it a 2-man battle (w/4 wins by Charles to LH’s dnfs)

How many dnfs does Hamilton have the last 2 years?

I think perhaps it’s more about Liberty telling Merc to lift a bit so that the fallout that seemed imminent after France would simply dissipate.

Well played, Liberty...

 

0% chance lewis doesn’t win the wdc.
Next year leclerc and ferrari might have a shot if they win 4 out of the remaining 6 races and carry that momentum forward