The whole process of electrification and timing is probably much slower than people think. Current European legislation dictates that manufacturers across the fleet need about a third of their production as EV by 2025 (for some manufacturers less). By 2030 it might be a half. No car manufacturer makes profit from selling EVs (yes, I know Tesla just did a profitable quarter). So there is no incentive for them to build more until they can get battery supply sorted out, which is a long-term infrastructure issue. Some manufacturers can delay this further by paying fines (currently cheaper for many than rushing EV models through - thereby extending the percentage of petrol cars in their fleet beyond the emissions dates). This means that it will probably be in the 2040s before manufacturers are forced to produce a zero emission fleet, if they ever are (which I personally don’t believe they ever will be). Once they are not producing petrol cars any longer it takes another 15 or so years to clear them from the vehicle parc. This in turn means there will be fuel on the forecourts for many years to come, even at the worst scenario. Unless customer demand falls so heavily in favour of EV that the market demands no petrol, possible but not likely IMV. This would certainly foreshorten things, but again, I don’t believe this will happen. So the conclusion is that petrol powered cars are still with us for a long time and may never be completely removed. In this climate a small brand with a USP in petrol cars should still be able to operate effectively. There is a further complication. EV is not that green either. And people are beginning to take notice. There is now more talk about removing or minimising car journeys altogether (likely to be a hard sell by green lobbies to the general public). But there is also the law of diminishing returns. When the lobbying battle is won with the car industry, its customers and its regulators, lobbying efforts will turn to the next thing. And the fact that you probably already know what the next thing is tells you it has already begun - possibly 30 years away from a theoretical end to petrol vehicle production. Meat. Have you noticed how wide the conversation about how polluting meat production and consumption is? This is a far bigger battle than for petrol/EV and will possibly get very dirty because this is a substitution that is harder for many people to make in their minds. With all this happening, there is enough of a timescale for a disruptive tech to arrive for cars - better than EV for both the environment and the consumer. What it is I don’t yet know but it may be something that suits brands like Ferrari better. Some sort of completely clean combustion maybe? Whatever it is, I doubt many of us will be around to see it take over unless it gets discovered pretty soon but you never know.
Also don't discount how EVs + ride sharing + autonomy will affect ICE production numbers in general. The reality is that cars are one of the most under-utilized consumer assets. They largely just sit unused 90% of the time. EV's are likely going to be the models that push ride sharing/autonomy.
And as we speak a fully loaded car with 500 miles popped up at 279 ... Looks like we'll get the much sooner
In 5 years time it will just make no sense to buy an ice car, just think 5 years back you would have ever imagined something like the taycan coming along?..... At the time nobody was really investing in EV .... Now everybody is putting billions into research.... This will drive progress exponentially and no rational buyer will choose ICE over EV as it will make no sense from a performance, pricing, tax, image (don't forget all the shaming that is starting to happen for non eco friendly activity) and financial perspective (imagine how much stepper ICE car depreciation will be if there's not going to be an second hand market)
6 weeks ago this car would have been 320.....812 are dropping massively... More to come https://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/ferrari/superfast/ferrari-812-superfast/10124759 Image Unavailable, Please Login
I will be the irrational buyer who steadfastly avoids all electric vehicles. I could care less about eco “shaming” over an ICE or any other choice that I make in life. If massive depreciation becomes the norm, my collection should grow nicely. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I think the problem here is EV has no emotion. Taycan is very expensive and that is entirely due to battery/ EV unique costs. It is more advanced than the Tesla, but if you compare the numbers, the Taycan makes the Tesla look like a good value. I think we will see ICE powered sports cars for many more years because EV just cannot make that emotional connection. But EV = cheap power. Hence, hybrid such as SF90. That is likely the way forward also for regulation/emissions reasons. I do think there is a somewhat new factor at work here- V8 is now the flagship- no longer is it simply cylinders = power = prestige in the lineup. And the younger generations want mid engine much more than front engine. I remember when they overproduced the 599 and even the 430 Scud- do you remember how it was impossible to get one and then anyone could get one? They needed to slap a GTO badge on the 599- do you remember the cries of how they sold out? Does anyone say that anymore? This happens every cycle. Sure history doesn't repeat, it rhymes, but I find much of this discussion complaining the sky is blue. The only advice that holds up over time for any physical man made object is to get what you love.
Expensive? 750 hp for £140k base, where else do you get that? Also look at BMW i3 6 year old car, but experiencing 30 pct y/y sales growth Consumer preferences are shifting SF90 is a poor attempt to play in that game.. it will be completely outshined by what is coming next few years They'll figure out the emotional part.. And with GPF etc the differential is getting smaller and smaller....911 most reviewers equally said it lacks the emotion
I don’t agree. You;re ignoring a whole raft of complication with EV production, regulation fines and ownership. If that were true manufacturers would not make petrol cars, EV prices would have to be massively increased because at the moment petrol sales subsidise EV pricing (this is not a volume issue, i.e more volume, lower price - battery production is already at scale because of cell phones etc.) There would also be extreme levels of unemployment in the European car industry. Residual values are much more problematic for battery cars - how does a finance company value a 5 year old Tesla coming off contract? If the battery needs replacing the car is basically valueless. If the performance of the battery is degraded 60% or 40% how does the consumer know and how do you value that? It is uncharted territory and very complicated. Given all the noise now for a number of years about EV you would think that sales are growing significantly but EVs are still only a very few percent.
Tangential but relevant as it relates to EV and drama Begin at 9:37, then skip to 11:27 for discussion. The future is bleak for enthusiasts, and the future is now.
It wasn't too too long ago that we were being told, by the same powers that be, that no rational buyer would/should choose petrol over diesel..........point is agendas change, nothing is permanent, 'flavour of the month' at best till the next 'must go direction' the politicians & bureaucrats dream up!
Question: How many laps on Nordschleife - Nürburgring - will Tesla be able to do without stop, or the new Porsche Taycan?
Luckily I haven’t had meat for 30 years since left home but I hate the fact that I am now seen as a virtue signaller ! As for reluctant substitution I think its gross stuff as is the industry so easy for me !
Future will remain firmly rooted in the past if these EVs succeed in replacing actual cars. At 5000+ pounds, it will never be agile or fun to drive and the 20+ minute recharge means you'll never enjoy a day driving with friends for many reasons, quite unlikely a high speed charger will be "out in the middle of nowhere" where such drives typically occur, even if there is such a charger, better hope it is not being used and there isn't a queue and your driving group doesn't include several such EVs as you would literally be there for hours. I have been in driving groups with dozens of cars and we find a larger gas station or area where there are multiple nearby stations and typically within 30minutes everyone is ready to go. With such EVs you will likely not go out with such a driving group. The complete lack of any real passion makes this an appliance, so, it's the past (automobile production) for the future enjoyment. Of course, the capacity restraints on true mass production of full EVs (such as lack of ability to make the batteries for many reasons) does mean there will certainly be a lot of non-EV options for years to come, but, hopefully non-hybrid too. Big weight is no fun especially when it cannot keep up when electric motors are turned off such as in the SF90 at 130mph (in hybrid mode). Not to mention the top speed of many of these EVs is rather low, even the Taycan cannot top 170mph, Tesla 155, SF90 less than 85mph in full EV mode. That plus the large weight gains, for fun driving the future is likely rooted in the past as it is nearly impossible to believe batteries will ever find a chemistry that allows lightweight.
Image Unavailable, Please Login But it should be fun to drive! Imagine wiggling that around! Range anxiety solved
812 has 92L tank (24.3 US gallons) and you have full power until the gas is gone, with EV when battery power gets low it starts shutting down power, all sorts of "odd" things (as compared to proper cars) affect power and you never really know what you have left, however, with a proper car the gas gauge pretty much tells you where you are no matter if it is cold, hot, you have been engaging in spirited driving, "how efficiently the battery can be used {for instance, age/number of charge cycles eventually results in degradation and charge being less and less vis-a-vis what it used to be in an EV}" etc.. https://www.myev.com/research/ev-101/electric-vehicle-battery-basics https://www.fleetcarma.com/monitoring-battery-health-matters-ev-owners/ If EVs were all that great, we would want them, instead they are not desirable from a performance minded / visceral perspective...so, they are being legislated into the mainstream oh, as for a "gas can" 1 gallon can be quickly added (less than 1 minute and 12 miles of ability to get you to a gas station) and provide energy density battery powered cars will never challenge, ever
They are desirable to many people hence the sales volumes. May not fit your profile. Performance is staggering.
Still a staggeringly low uptake on a global scale, comparatively. It may be the future but only for a relatively small percentage of the worlds population.
