Due to electric future, better leasing than buying gasoline cars? | FerrariChat

Due to electric future, better leasing than buying gasoline cars?

Discussion in 'Ferrari Discussion (not model specific)' started by Sunshine1, Nov 4, 2019.

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  1. Sunshine1

    Sunshine1 F1 Veteran
    Silver Subscribed

    Jan 22, 2011
    7,760
    Miami
    Being a car lover (in my 50s) and owner of some nice cars over the years, I realize that electrification is coming and will replace gasoline cars over the next 20 or 30 years. I do not like it for the lack of pleasures it will mean: no more engine symphonies, bland designs for the most part (so far), less driving experiences, strong but "fake" performances (going fast due to a battery is absolutely not the same as with an engine, it's like having a watch powered by a battery instead of a mechanical watch), silence, computers controlling everything, etc...). But it's coming.

    Which means that starting soon, depreciation for gasoline cars should accelerate because more and more people will buy electric cars in the future (lowering the resale value of gasoline cars).

    When do you think this cycle will start happening? I always owned my cars but when it comes time to change my Maserati next year, may be it will be better to start leasing.

    What do you think (buying vs leasing gasoline cars in the next years in a world where electric cars will become more mainstream)?
     
    Themaven likes this.
  2. Steve Magnusson

    Steve Magnusson Two Time F1 World Champ
    Lifetime Rossa

    Jan 11, 2001
    25,038
    30°30'40" N 97°35'41" W (Texas)
    Full Name:
    Steve Magnusson
    Never in your lifetime, if ever. Expensive BEVs will remain a guilt purchase of the faux-green rich who live in denial about where money comes from. BEVs aren't an alternative to using fossil fuel -- they are a more inefficient way to use fossil fuel. Every process to make, maintain, and use BEVs uses a lot of fossil fuel. Additionally, BEVs are like wind power -- we can absorb ~10% of using something more inefficient for faux-green feelgoodism, but the cost just to have an electrical system that could support all transportation being BEV is incredibly HUGE. Makes Warren's Medicare-for-All look practical...
     
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  3. Jaguar36

    Jaguar36 Formula Junior

    Nov 8, 2010
    834
    Cherry Hill, NJ
    There seems to be alot of threads lately harping on the end of gas cars here, but its not happening any time soon. So far only Tesla has come out with a compelling EV that sells in a significant number. The traditional automakers are all supposedly working on it, and hopefully they really are, but so far we've only seen half-assed attempts like the E-Tron and iPace or the ridiculously overpriced Taycan. I think alot of this is an unwillingness to really do a ground up EV design, a lack of understanding of how EVs work in the real world, and just a general lack of commitment. In addition if all of the automakers R&D efforts are actually focusing on EVs (which I don't buy despite what they say) then future gas cars won't be as compelling and depreciation of gas cars will actually get better.

    Eventually I can imagine that EVs will cause gas cars to be worth less, but I think we are talking somewhere in the 2030s or even the 2040s.

    I also think you are incorrect in your evaluation of EVs, or at least your perceived evaluation of gas powered cars. Bland designs has nothing to do with the powertrain. I also think that the Model S is a far more coherent and elegant design than some of the gas cars coming out today, particularly overdone cars like the SF90. Same thing with driving experience, unless you are talking about niche lightweight cars like a 488 or a Alfa 4C. As for being fake, what about all the fakery in gas powered cars these days? Fake engine noise is becoming the norm rather than the exception, and I suspect with the GPF being introduced that trend will accelerate. Computers control everything about a modern gas car as well, from the engine, to the transmission, to the steering, there is a computer in between the tires and you and every step.

    You're also missing alot of the advantages of an EV. The ability to stealthily launch the car in 2.5s from a red light without worrying about every cop for a mile around hearing you. Not having to deal with gas stations on a weekly basis (or stale gas if you don't drive all winter). Having significantly reduced maintenance.
     
    dodici likes this.
  4. A348W

    A348W Formula 3

    Jun 28, 2017
    1,741
    North Wiltshire, UK
    EV is part of the solution, not THE solution.

    I seriously doubt they will replace ice in my lifetime, and I’m the same age as the OP.

    hydrids are just being found out for the con that they are here in the UK, as the first big tranch of lease ones come through the system and people realising that other than the tax brakes there is no benefit to owning one as the actual fuel economy is rubbish. As lease companies find people don’t want to buy them back or get another one.

    as with diesels here in the the UK, I fully suspect electric will be found out not to be as environmentally friendly as first thought (by our dim witted politicians and dimmer press). Little details such as strip mining cobalt, lithium mines and minor details such as environmental impact of recycling batteries at end of life! But as all that happens in other countries, it obviously doesn’t have an impact on the environment!!!!

    I seriously wouldn’t worry about it! Personally I’d be far more worried about cost of ownership of an electric vehicle...what’s the guarantee on the batteries and what’s the cost to replace them? Tesla sales man refused to tell me. Says it all in my book!

    Besides, hydrogen vehicles will be here soon enough!
     
  5. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,242
    Austin TX
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/859950/vehicles-in-operation-by-quarter-united-states/

    Currently over 250 million cars in the USA right now (link above - it also includes other vehicle types)

    About 2 million electric cars made globally in 2018:

    https://www.iea.org/publications/reports/globalevoutlook2019/

    It is very unclear

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-batteries/vw-to-deepen-alliances-with-battery-suppliers-for-electric-push-idUSKCN1U30I8

    how EV (not hybrids, but all electric) production will top 10 million per year for the foreseeable future, sure there are predictions galore but looking at the current reality, we'll need to keep an eye on it. It may not even make it to 5 million per year. Never mind they are mostly cars only, not many SUVs, noting that "cars" in general are in decline as crossovers and trucks/suvs gain in popularity.

    Remember, over 80 millions cars/light trucks are made (globally) every year, current EV production is 2.5% of that, until EV production can equal IC production we are many decades, if ever, from the point in time that EVs are the only vehicle type produced.

    Lots of issues to resolve, from rare earth metals mining to production of battery packs in large amounts, to charging infrastructure that works for everyone, I expect EVs will firmly remain a distant second to IC production probably forever.
     
    Themaven, Caeruleus11 and A348W like this.
  6. MalcQV

    MalcQV F1 Rookie

    Oct 11, 2004
    3,292
    Manchester, UK
    Full Name:
    Malc Holden
    I think 'exotic' or low production models will always have value regardless of power train.

    People still ride horses. Granted hay is easy to produce but as eluded to above to some degree so is alcohol.
     
  7. vincep99

    vincep99 Formula 3
    Owner Silver Subscribed

    Jun 8, 2009
    1,929
    Speaking of mechanical watches (which is all I wear): they have recently starting coming back, and not only in the high-end brands as well. We thought the wristwatch itself would be doomed due to cell phones, but both quartz and mechanical are rising in sales.

    Maybe a harbinger of cars?
     
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  8. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Jun 11, 2013
    10,860
    According to a WSJ article, EV sales should be about 8% of new vehicle sales in the US in 2030.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-china-positioned-itself-to-dominate-the-future-of-electric-cars-11572804489?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=6

    However, I remember how there were all these predictions about broadband take-up in the US by the end of the 90s and that was off by a decade. So take any prediction with a grain of salt. EV take-up could happen faster, slower, or, possibly not at all (beyond a small part of the market).
     
  9. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,242
    Austin TX
    Oh how the mighty have fallen, it wasn't 2 years ago predictions of 2030 ran from 25% to 35%, now, 8%:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2017/09/14/the-future-of-electric-vehicles-in-the-u-s-part-1-65-75-new-light-duty-vehicle-sales-by-2050/#4e76c681e289

    in the graph from the link above I think the EIA is closest to reality, flatlining at 8%:

    Image Unavailable, Please Login


    And according to this, without stimulus/discounts EVs are not selling well in Germany of all places, the "center" of the "green car universe regulations of the EU":

    https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/germany-increases-ev-incentives-stimulate-demand

    To put into perspective 3.4 million cars sold in Germany last year and this year they have not yet sold 50,000 EVs or less than 1.5% and "government handouts" required and will continue to at least 2025 to hopefully (magically) reach 10 million total EVs by 2030, that would be incredible if they reach that, completely unlikely especially as cars fall out of favor worldwide (losing out to larger sized personal vehicles).
     
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  10. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
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    Jun 11, 2013
    10,860
    Also, several years ago we were told by 2020 most vehicles would be autonomous..... we've got less than 60 days to get there!
     
  11. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,242
    Austin TX
    Without special geo-fencing containment areas, that will never happen in the existing world, too many edge cases that will never be solvable making AVs dangerous outside special/limited situations. Even the sensors are problematic, they do not function well in the real world of dirt, grease, snow, and so on. Given a properly prepared situation they appear as if they can do it, but, take them out of such an environment and they do not work.
     
  12. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Veteran
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    Feb 4, 2014
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    Maximus Decimus Meridius
    At your age in thirty years you won't be smelling too good so don't sweat it. :)
     
  13. Sunshine1

    Sunshine1 F1 Veteran
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    Jan 22, 2011
    7,760
    Miami
    Thank you for your comments. Many manufacturers (including Porsche, BMW, Mercedes, ...) are already saying that some current popular models are going to be discontinued and replaced by EVs. They are also in the process of planning and building many EVs over the years to come. So, sadly, it's coming. Like you I will keep driving my classic gas-powered cars and enjoy them. Regarding new cars, I am sticking to gas-powered vehicles too but depreciation may hit them harder in the next years (as more people buy EVs and hybrids). Therefore, after selling my 2017 Ghibli S, I leased a new 2019 Ghibli S (due to current trends, I believe less money to lose with the lease compared with buying). Cheers for a new year!
     
  14. Steve Magnusson

    Steve Magnusson Two Time F1 World Champ
    Lifetime Rossa

    Jan 11, 2001
    25,038
    30°30'40" N 97°35'41" W (Texas)
    Full Name:
    Steve Magnusson
    Right, like in 2000, civilization would greatly reduce its CO2 emissions by 2030. When it became obvious now in 2020 that that wasn't going to happen, they've moved the goalposts to civilization will greatly reduce its CO2 emissions by 2050. When it get obvious that that won't happen, civilization will greatly reduce its CO2 emissions by 2070, and so on ;). BEVs will continue to be expensive toys for the virtue-signalling rich that do nothing to reduce civilization's CO2 emissions -- resurrect me from the dead and give me an "I told you so" if I'm wrong ;)
     
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