812 Market Dynamics

I think you would be saying why buy an 812 GTS with such a small opening when you can have a PF with the same V12. I think these cars are aimed at different people. Besides, we might both be right. The end seems near for the 812 type car as the V12 is replaced as the Flagship (SF90 replaces) and we will have to see what comes next in for the V12 production model (if anything comes next)....

 

I did see the silver Portofino, but my eye really appreciated the Nero Daytona

Maybe this weekend would be a good time to have your wife drive you two out to Fredericksburg for lunch )in the 488(

Yes, being first owner does have additional credibility, factory pays attention to that...

If you keep the 812 any depreciation is inconsequential...I think the car that follows that 812 will take its styling cues from the Roma...count on that! And since the SF90 is the top dog, the 812 replacement might go sideways or backwards on power...(the former the factory has already alluded to; the latter is my speculation)

Also, waiting ~2 more years on the 488 (to trade on the Roma) should be the bottom of the 488 depreciation as the F8 will have been out for a while...who knows, maybe the F8 will not be as loved due to is including of GPFs...

lots to consider but, if you want the Roma (which I do not understand as it is not a convertible so is not a replacement for the AMG in that sense) being first owner on the Portofino will help in the allocation lottery

 

A lot of people got caught up into this Lusso-for-a-Pista game, but the outcomes are different than most of the previous carrot-on-a-stick purchases. It used to be that it was (worst-case) essentially a wash between the loss on Lusso-type car and the uptick in value of the Pista-type car, but at this point, the Pista market in the US isn't supporting the losses that would be taken on the Lusso...

 

No doubt the 812 is soft, but is it Lusso soft...? I can’t imagine that to be the case.

 

Trade values for a like-for-like Lusso and 812 are not that dissimilar in absolute dollar-under-MSRP terms. The 812 does slightly better and has a higher MSRP, so as a percentage, it's not as bad, but it's still not good...

 

I understand that people will take the comments of owners with "a pinch of salt" but IMHO it is genuinely a shame that depreciation seems to be tainting the 812.
IT IS A GREAT CAR.
I am the first to admit it is a more difficult car to feel comfortable in driving fast in than some others in the current and immediate past model line up but I enjoy it all the more for that.
I would trade mine for an 812 VS but not for anything else that I can see coming in the medium term.

 

Ouch on the Pista Lusso deal!

 

I don't think anyone is saying that the depreciation is necessarily "tainting the 812", but this is the "812 Market Dynamics" thread

 

Yes. Pista is maybe +50k and Lussos seems to lose $100k the first month. The sad part is that Lusso is an amazing car..

 

Simply not true. There is always a price that a car will move at. Sellers need to re-adjust their "tear up" thresholds

 

Yup watched the video. He is just one example so not representative and might have needed to get out asap. As an example, in my geo (half the size of the UK) there are 40+ 488's for sale. All between 20-40% under MSRP (2016 onwards). They move at the right price. Most McLarens are 50% of MSRP after 24 months (in my geo). Suppose it depends what you are used to.

At this level of tear up, most people will simple not chase the next car and will actually enjoy the car they have instead. Thats what I am doing.

 

That is the correct approach for sure, stop changing cars and enjoy what you have.

 

The UK market is quite aggressively hurting right now. Winter, Brexit, Election so everything is making it very negative, and because depreciation on Lusso/812/PF have been so severe buyers are holding back. It will stabilise, but the old Ferrari relative stability has gone out the window , they are now big depreciating cars , like all the others . The Lusso T is slow on the second market though, but what a great car , and will be a hidden gem when the prices stabilise. Too many of these cars were clearly sold on the basis of getting a Pista allocation. That means loads of cars no one wants. Same now with 812 , people got them to get the GTS (though go steady on that as it will not cover your losses, if any, of the coupe) or the VS (watch GTS when that is announced) now market is flooded with 812's (many markets). PF is also in the mix for similar reasons. So you have a bizarre scenario, where many of these great cars are being bought by people who don't want them, because they want a model that is yet to be launched that may or may not happen. So essentially the real demand for Ferrari is very low, at least at list prices. If Ferrari are not aware that their commercial practices are rapidly damaging their reputation as a luxury highly desired brand then there are still a few rude awakenings still to come. Which is bizarre when the product itself is exceptional. But what a great time to bag a bargain almost new Ferrari at monster discount, wonderful time for buyers.

 

Understand that.To be honest I was referring more to conversations about the car with enthusiasts.Depreciation always come up as a topic especially from those who have not driven it.

 

GTS will maybe trade at a premium for a few months, like the coupe did. Too many of them to do anything else methinks, and most of them only getting it for the VS allocation. Many markets cannot absorb that volume of V12 cars. Best thing they can do for 812 coupe is stop producing it. Everything else market wise will become clearer in 2021/2 when we learn of the new generation V12 platform (turbo/hybrid/smaller capacity higher revving whatever....or not ) . It has become the new cost of ownership if you want a new Ferrari.

Agree on SF90 , will be amazing, as ever, but a huge question when selling, more so when they announce the spider . Just not the volumes of people in the market to take that level of pricing.

 

You are 100% correct here. They will be in for a very rude awakening and within 12 months IMO.

Porsche are in a world of pain right now for exactly the same practices. Again in my geo (1/2 the size of the UK) they sold 120 GT2RS's !!!. What the.. already 10% on the market and I am sure another 10% couldn't be bothered as nothing is selling. 991.1 GT3RS's (2016) now at 40% off list. ZERO and I mean ZERO interest in the 718 GT4 and still 992 GT3RS, etc to roll through.

Some great bargains to be had across most brands !!!

 

I am looking forward to a 812GTS if they ever drop like current 812s - that is for sure.

FWIW: I seem to remember when the Ferrari F40 was iscold on the market - sounds funny today I know, but that was how it was back in the ages ;-)

 

So true with Porsche . They all got a bit greedy and flooded the market, not realising that an upside on some cars, helped cover the losses on the others and helped justify certain purchases. Also the world has changed, economically but also the market, has far many more offers for your money , so many choices, but the buyers are still the same. There is more money, but many don't like wasting it on cars. With hindsight would I buy a new 812 now, never, I do not regret getting mine new , no as it was something I wanted to do and was a dream come true. I would happily now become a buyer of distressed new car sellers , there are some great spec cars out there , and what amazing cars they are.

 

https://www.carscoops.com/2019/11/ferrari-to-slow-down-its-model-launch-rate-next-year/

 

I agree Ferrari has screwed their perfect balance we had for years.

Cars are now over the top expensive from new and they are not rare and not exceptional anymore since Ferrari launches a new one every 6 months. And if you are not a Ferrari only buyer, it's even worse as the competition is as desirable as Ferrari. I know I would consider a DBS vs a 812 or a 720s vs a F8.

And this is with a strong US market. Imagine if we get into a recession..