812 Market Dynamics | Page 30 | FerrariChat

812 Market Dynamics

Discussion in 'F12/812' started by 1881, May 19, 2019.

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  1. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    #726 paulchua, Dec 16, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2019
    I see you have a temp ban...while on break, let us 'break' bread together:
    @1881 in all seriousness, your thread's premise is excellent. Every car model has a market price thread on this forum. Why the negative sentiment then you may wonder?

    If you've been on Ferrarichat long enough, you'll know there are certain archetypes. Members can be price prognosticators, others price analyzers, some price manipulators, even all three!

    All with varying degrees of good to bad faith.

    I think at the core is people are trying to understand your 'reason' behind the 'reason' so to speak of your posts. There are a lot of historical price tools out there that let you follow the curve of previous regular production V12 2-seat models. While the decay curve won't be exact, they tend to be within a band.

    People I know that are about to drop $300k know within some degree that deprecation curve, I guess that's why your latest posts raise eyebrows, as it implies your interest is purely academic, that's fine as well. Let us know, and it will give context on your angle.

    If not, what is the price point you are looking to enter in? I think this will help us give some thoughts on the timeframe. I have a lot of data and am happy to provide you with a guess/opinion on how long it would take to get to your desired price of entry.

    Be well.
     
  2. noone1

    noone1 F1 Rookie
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    That's a very optimistic outlook. GBP has already given back the gains from the result and the rhetoric is not helping. They couldn't get a good Brexit deal after 3 years, so I don't see how they'll get one now. Oct house prices in London had their biggest drop in years with the uncertainty.

    I don't see a good outlook for exotics in general (can the global bull market go forever?), but the UK doesn't really look like they've done anything other than end some political stalemate.
     
  3. deltona

    deltona Formula 3

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    You make some good points but we are talking about Ferrari and specifically 812 in this thread. As others have said normal V12 depreciation seems to have resumed, that's all. Ferrari still has arguably the best product so i still expect it to fair better than other brands in a flooded market. A nicely specced early 812 at £260k is a lot of car and i don't believe it will be be sub £200k for a good couple of years yet.
     
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  4. Gh21631

    Gh21631 F1 Veteran
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    812 has no competition except people staying with their F12 or if someone moves to a different type of car. Once the initial depreciation flattens which is probably soon the drop will be more reasonable. For reference, I was just offered a 19' for $320k without negotiating. It has just over a 400k list. White with nero interior.
     
  5. Hex

    Hex Karting

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    With what mileage?
     
  6. Gh21631

    Gh21631 F1 Veteran
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    under 500 miles, basically a new car. I am thinking about it now, I am just unsure if I want one in white.
     
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  7. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3

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    Will fly now, on a 3/5 year view. Everything in our favour for first time in years. Let’s go....
     
  8. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3

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    Romans International have a very high specced blue car at good money - am sure could be bad for £250 cash
     
  9. Newjoint

    Newjoint Formula 3

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    “The sky is falling...Brexit...the bubble has burst...yada yada yada”
    If you love the car just get it and enjoy it, new, used, it doesn’t matter. A lot of miles= a lot of smiles.
    If the price is too steep then ride the depreciation curve to get one when price =. Value for you.
    The market speculators either do well or do poorly whereas the appreciators of the vehicle always do well. Life is short and it happens only once..nuf said.


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
  10. Lukeylikey

    Lukeylikey F1 Rookie
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    “Only end some political stalemate?” Turn do nothing into do something, how is that not anything? You don’t know how big this is for the UK because you mustn’t really know the UK. The three years delay was mostly about some very clever politicians thwarting the process while managing to pull off the trick of pretending to the media they were still trying to fulfil the will off the people. Now the people have had their say, they’re gone. The UK remains an excellent place to invest. There is a wall of money waiting for certainty which will now begin to come, something I can clearly see from our property business. Make up your own mind what that might do to supercar prices. There are certainly other factors which might complicate things so I’m not predicting a surge in values, I’m not a doomsayer either.
     
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  11. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Veteran
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    $80k down from MSRP on a same year car with 500 miles is major decline. Conversely a 2013 F12 was $30k+ over (ask) sticker 1.5 years after delivery with 1500 miles. Believing now that initial 812s depreciation curve not likely to flatten until 812 is after production but VS deliveries might take the next big bite out of it then. Things should not be going so quick but Ferrari has made a lot of changes and we're watching and trying to learn from it.
     
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  12. Bundy

    Bundy Formula 3

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    In 2016, we paid $405K for a 2015 TM F12 with an MSRP of $509K and about 2,000 miles. Obviously, highly spec’d examples have typically lost more money on resale. We received $290K when we sold it earlier this year with 6,500 miles. That translates to a 20% drop in 1 year and a 43% drop in 4 years.

    I’m sure it would be a rude awakening to see what our 2019 TM 812SF ($599K MSRP) would bring on resale. I’m guessing it’s dropped by at least 30% in one year. Grateful that won’t happen.

    Our 2018 488 GTB dropped 28% in one year. It’s pretty clear that the depreciation curve for 2-seat regular production models has steepened since 2013-14.
     
  13. Thecadster

    Thecadster F1 Veteran
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    Too many awesome cars chasing to few a buyers. Not sure how this improves over time given the stated objectives of all the various manufacturers. Any variety of economic retraction stateside would only serve to hasten the descent. I gain comfort knowing these two facts about my 812 that I purchased new: 1). I absolutely adore it, 2). I plan to have it forever.
     
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  14. Gh21631

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    I believe they will end up in the high 270's to low 300's soon and hold. Spec's vary quite a bit and I am sure that will have something to do with it.
     
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  15. MDEL

    MDEL F1 Rookie
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    Concerning the already referred evolution of the 812 Superfast second hand prices in the UK recently I was looking at Auto Trader where there are 32 cars announced for sale. I plotted all the prices asked in an excel sheet and reached an average price of £ 284.307. If we take the base selling price of the 812 in the UK which was £ 262.963 by the end of 2017 and add to it an average value of £ 50.000 in extras, we reach a total £ 312.963 as being the average cost of the the new 812's sold.
    I know this method isn't the most scientific but it gives an orientation that the average depreciation of the 812 in the UK was more or less 10 % since the car started being delivered.
     
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  16. mikesufka

    mikesufka F1 Veteran
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    White with Cioccolato interior would be my dream spec … :)

    MDS
     
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  17. Gianfranco341

    Gianfranco341 Karting

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    My F12 was white outside and all cioccolato inside. Gorgeous but each one you are going to meet will ask you : why white color ?
     
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  18. Bundy

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    We had a white over cioccolato FF. Loved that spec.
     
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  19. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3

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    Nice work but average 812 delivered at my dealer has been £340k they really smash you for extras
     
  20. MDEL

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    I know I was very conservative by considering that the value of the extras averages only £50k per car. However, if the real average value for the extras is like you mentioned substantially higher with the new cars costing around £340k, then the 812 depreciation value in the UK jumps to 20%.
     
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  21. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Veteran
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    IMO not a chance 812 will hold at 300's or anywhere near. No different than the F12 ultimate values only getting there much faster due to recent Ferrari production and marketing campaign and the release of the GTS, VS and whatever comes after with a V12. This does not concern those that bought to own of course. Drive it and care for it as these are special cars.
     
  22. Thecadster

    Thecadster F1 Veteran
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    I agree. No chance price stabilizes at $300. It might not even stabilize at $200.
     
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  23. Hex

    Hex Karting

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    Lol. If you wait a decade everything comes down in price.
     
  24. nads

    nads Formula Junior

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    #749 nads, Dec 20, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2019
    My read........the one big problem with the 812 in particular is that a lot of people got caught up in the hype and went TM or extreme Atelier thinking that money is no object as these cars will retain value and losses would be small on resale (if not profitable). Dealers fed on this and actively encouraged those programs inflating the average cost of these cars well beyond where a 'good spec' would come in. My 'good spec' 812 came in at £318k. When the tide turned and reality set in the panic at those inflated levels is what has exacerbated the decline.
     
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  25. deltona

    deltona Formula 3

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    Agreed, plus the fact that many of these £350k spec cars are less than tasteful to say the least.....
     
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