is the bubble due to burst?

I think you're light. 80% of that debt is prime or below...
I can find the data point, but I'd bet we're closer to +50-60% of the market makeup being affected by unemployment at the moment. Sadly.

 

Then the repo business will go up!


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If this virus and its effect on the market don't pop the collector car bubble nothing will.

 

Sorry where is there a bubble? The market has been going sideways to slightly down for the last 6 years. At auctions trophy cars sell for amazing prices, great cars for great prices and mediocre cars sell for mediocre prices or don’t sell. This sounds like a mature well-functioning market to me. I think this relatively short term shock will probably bring some quick distressed sales but many cars are in strong hands. I was chatting with 3 F40 owners recently and it was clear they would not sell whether the cars halved or doubled. Will there be a few pista owners that couldn’t really afford or want the cars that will panic? I hope so, especially if the cars go to people that will really enjoy them. So I don’t see any bubble, just a mature market.

 

Fed backing auto loans now too in addition to credit cards, student loans, mortgage back securities, corporate bonds, and government bonds. They are basically trying to stop it from imploding.

As said above, the collector car market has been cooling off for a while. The very wealthy are smart with money and were likely out of this by late 2019 with the overnight bank lending crisis the Fed had to rescue in the fall.

Blue chip cars will hold value while the mass produced ones that are leased/financed regularly will be dumped.

 

The bubble isnt on the price side, it’s on the volume side. Good cars (pre 2012) are in better hands than in 09. Id love to buy the green f40 but it will never trade at 50 percent from purchase.

 

LMAO!!!!!

180 grand for an e39 m5 along with countless dime a dozen "time capsles" selling for stupid money that aren't worth a nickel during any other time period in human history and it isn't a bubble? No amount of fed money is going to stop this collector car market from imploding. Even if this economy is just in a blip. Check back into this thread next fall.

It will be a "Deusy"

 

Roma is talking about real cars. Not e39s.


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Clearly you are on a mission here, so happy to see that financial distress for others brings you such unbridled joy. The market for genuinely great cars(Enzo era Ferrari, 300 SL, Miura) will remain solid. The market for late model series produced in volume--regardless of mileage--will suffer.

 

Nope. Financial duress and recessions come and go and I don't wish financial duress on anyone. Recessions are part of life. Our country will get through it, we always do.

And yes watching this car market tank will bring me unbridled joy. My car will go down with it and I could care less. Just more fun for everyone else to have in the coming years as the speculators begin to scatter. All good things in my book. Feel free to disagree.

Like I said before if you have a warehouse with a plethora of cars that you stashed and took from the market for 5 years to make a buck, and you're now going to cry and say it isn't fair, I have no pity for you. You lost, that's life.

And enzo cars will not be immune to the downturn, they weren't last time, and they certainly weren't in 89. Yes they will hold their value and only have a slight decline. But they will also decline.

 

It is quite breathtaking to think someone would come onto a car enthusiasts forum where many members have invested hard earned dollars into a car because their passion won over financial prudence and state that the market tanking will bring you “unbridled joy”. This is particularly insensitive during a period where many will be feeling financial distress. I know many others on this forum have been disgusted by your posts in the past I will now add myself to this unfortunate group. You are a troll sir and you do not belong on this forum now or ever.

 

Roma - bradwilliams is the resident expert with no dollars at risk, ever. Whats in your stable today brad? Did you figure out a way to get short cars? This is your chance to be the Paulson of the car market!!! Make sure you dont muck this up!!!!

 

Oh please, Cry me a river. I saved and invested some of my hard earned money into my cars too, we're in the same boat. And you clearly didn't read my post. The classic car market tanking is not a big deal at all and won't make the nightly news.

Lower prices are good for everyone and gives more people the ability to buy more cars. Cheaper parts, cheaper insurance, etc.

The people that will be feeling financial duress don't care about the classic car market either. Let's have a pity party for all of the picasso owners of the world while we're at it! LOL

 

What cars do you have today?


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Late model BMWs and Mercedes are going to take a major hit. The majority of these cars are leased, and the “owners” will not exercise their options. You will see a flood of these cars hit Manheim.

Porsches will be following with Ferraris bringing up the field.

Real cars? Their owners will retire from the field. Monterey should be interesting if it is held at all.


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Does a Jensen Healey count?


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it would be great if in germany on the autobahn only not financed cars may drive. then there is again high speed possible and the lines are not blocked by the financed cars

great car and I still have mine

 

Unfortunately, @Bradwilliams has a long history of wishing financial misfortune on others. Theoretically, it's not trolling as it's his sincere wish. At first, he tried to say it's due to speculators 'pricing him out' of cars, but when asked which cars, he time and again wasn't able to name them, of course, it was exposed as pure schadenfreude. Some folks are just like that. At least more members know his character is that he delights in other's pain. All the odder since this is not a zero-sum game.

 

I mean, you have folks that are happy for others' fortune, and then you have @Bradwilliams. At least nowadays, he's honest about wishing ruin on others. Most psychopath/sociopaths 'charm' or hide their lack of empathy. Remember how surprised I was of his behavior, @ttforcefed? I even asked you if there really was a way to 'short' the collectible market? I mean why else would you ever wish misfortune on others if it's no skin off your back?

Sadly, he's admitted himself many times that he's the only motive is to see folks hurt.

@roma1280, scary actually when we encounter somebody that fully admits this huh?

 

At first, I wasn't offended with @Bradwilliams because I assumed the reason for his bearish take as he had an interest in a vintage car that he was priced out of.

This made sense, like say you wanted a car that was un-obtainable at current market values. You want prices to go down so you can buy your dream.

But what myself and many other Fchatters quickly found out was he wasn't interested in *any* car at *any* price. This was exposed when asked point-blank what car, in particular, he wasn't interested in seeing go down in price so he can jump in.

@Bradwilliams had no answer and divulged his interest is in seeing *all* cars go down so that folks that are collectors and/or investors burn.

I thought this was odd and quite frankly deplorable. Why wish misfortune on any cohort if it had no bearing on your own situation?

@Bradwilliams mentioned above Picasso. I'm not a Picasso collector, I don't plan to buy a Picasso, and whether the price goes up or down has no affect on me. So why would I wish harm on those that do collect Picasso?

Even sadder, especially if I were to conspicuously broadcast this in a Picasso collector forum!

 

Maybe seven years after the thread was started, we will finally get some kind of massive, sudden downward movement in the market.

If you keep at it long enough, eventually any prediction can be right.

 

Markets go up and down...history repeats.

However...look at the gigantic sums of money being created at this moment...money that did not exist yesterday...print print print...

Do we still value the dollar, euro, Swiss franc in the same way as before this crisis? Will a loaf of bread still cost the same....I don't think so.

Having money on the bank may not be the best strategy....

Buying a high end limited production Ferrari may be a safe hedge against devaluation of dollar bills. It may be wise to spread your investments accros different asset classes. Some will do good...some will go bad..

I still see the market for high end limited production Ferraris to remain strong. Too much rich people in the world today that need to allocate some of their money in 'safe' investments.

 

We only lose money if we sell our cars during the dip. It doesn't have three wheels or 11 cylinders today because the market may have dropped. You can't walk in your garage and admire your Amazon stock. With all the misery going on around us let's not let the monetary aspect of our hobby obscure the joy of owning a beautiful machine. Enjoy your cars and stay safe.

 

For speculators, I agree it’ll hurt, as time is of the essence when flipping cars. However, to someone’s earlier point, I doubt many speculators spend time on a forum by/for enthusiasts.

Personally, I just want a nice manual 360 or 550 to enjoy and this may be the only occasion where I’ll be able to get one without stretching myself. Patience is key!

 

How about some data points?

Data:
2015, bought my first Ferrari, making a childhood dream come true. F550 for 65k Euros. Prices literally exploded a couple of weeks later.
2016, doubled-down by buying a beautiful F599 for 130k Euros. I traded in my F550, valued at 100k.
2018, moved out of Germany and decided, after quite some hesitation, to put up the F599 for sale in Germany at a reputable dealer. Initial asking price 139k Euros. (Contemplated buying a California, but did end up not)
2020, after almost 2 years and 2-3 asking price lowerings, F599 sells for 80k Euros.

Opinion:
I could have not sold for 80k, I was in no particular rush. I sold because I am convinced that the downhill trend in EU for exotic-but-not-crazy-exotic cars will continue. If I waited for another year, it would be 65k. The next goldrush for these cars is probably another 7-10 years out. I did not want to wait that long. I will be back in the market at some point, hopefully in time before that goldrush.