no new gasoline car sale in 2035

Porsche have a high interest in e-fuels and start own research efforts:

https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2020/company/porsche-research-synthetic-fuels-efuels-development-22026.html

 

There is no way to discuss this without politics. (Heck, your second line went right there after your first said it wouldn’t).

 

The California executive order is not law but sure confuses things, every Ca governor since 1990 or so is term limited (to 2 four year terms), so, if re-elected Newsom would be out by 2027. There is currently a significant recall petition happening, he may not make it to end of his first term.

If you look at the total number of cars in-use in California, based on population, that would be about 12% (40m Ca. pop.) of USA total and there are about 274m cars/light trucks in-use in USA; 12% of that is about 33m cars for California (or so);

If all EV production were pointed toward California it would take years between average annual new sales and replacing the existing fleet just to get to 33m pure EV (forgetting hydrogen), but, all EV production will never be all pointed to California, so, it is unlikely 2035 could actually work.

Not to mention where is all the electricity going to come from, California cannot even sustain its existing needs (rolling blackouts due to insufficient capacity) and is increasingly reliant on neighboring states electricity production; so, unless there is a significant plan to increase electrical production the California idea of all EV by 2035 would not be possible unless its population was significantly reduced...

 

Gasoline cars are going to be here a while, with or without Califexico.

 

Every buyer of newest, latest and greatest tech automobile is biggest contributor for demise of “conventional” vehicles.

 

This is a very low concern of mine. Petrol cars will be around for a very long time. Electric cars are just as “dirty” it’s just not as directly obvious as petrol cars. Electric cars take a ton more energy to build and when they are scrapped they pollute a lot more not to mention as others have where would we get enough energy for even 25% of cars to go electric whereas a petrol cars pollution is spread over its lifetime a little more evenly. Regulations in the general US might move to no new petrol cars (albeit probably 25 years from now) but the petrol ones will be grandfathered in and with less demand for oil gas prices will stay low. Quicker they go to electric the more exotic petrol cars go up in price/demand. Remember, the emotion from an exotic petrol car like a 458 will never be able to be replicated in an electric car!


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Why is CA waiting until 2035? I say start January 1, 2021. It will be so much better for CA's environment. And think about the boost in Tesla's stock price.

BTW, CA F car owners, I'm buying at 10 cents on the dollar.

 

First I gotta say this is a dream because the ev tech has a long way to go before being able to fully replace internal combustion engines. Second I just read an article recently that some model of Porsche has cleaner “air” coming out of its exhaust pipe then the average air in Los Angeles Not counting the current cleaner then normal air they are experiencing right now due to stay at home orders. Further more most of the air pollution California experiences comes from the many ships, loaders, generators ect from the ports and there are zero public pollution studies from any of the many naval and airforce bases in the state, which I’m sure contribute a significant amount.

it’s my opinion that this is a political move. Also the news came out that it only bans the sale of new vehicles not used and isn’t a universal ban, so all old cars get to stick around though gas prices will obviously soar. Europe is phasing out use of internal combustion with a more reasonable percentage phase out plan. I honestly don’t see this sticking around in it current incarnation but likely being modified to a percentage phaseout plan. Californians have been enjoying much better air quality and this law could be as a result regardless of how feasible it is or isn’t.

It’s kinda a well known fact that internal combustion engines are on the way out, but anyone that thinks they will be completely replaced (no more internal combustion engines at all) is dreaming. They have to radically increase range and efficiency of ev vehicles before it’s even remotely feasible and more automakers will have to be manufacturing ev’s in higher numbers and types and agree on not only battery standards and safety but charging networks and as mentioned the ability to sustain the heavier load the charging will put on the electrical grid. Then they have to figure out a way to tax the electricity for highway use, and likely rates overall will increase for electricity.

just the electrical situation alone will cripple California without serious and immediate changes regarding electricity use and generation. Without doing so will make the rolling blackouts worse, the price for unreliable power higher, and the ability for its citizens to commute severely hindered. Not a good situation.

 

Can the grid handle everyone plugging in their EV?
T

 

The good thing is it's not a ban on gasoline cars made before 2035. The latest Tesla out today goes 0-60 in less than 2 seconds and 1/4 mile less than 9.

By 15 years, we will reach 'max' 0-60 acceleration. 0-60 in 1 second risks the driver greying out. I would argue around 1.5 is around the max, which we should hit in 2035. By then, performance will be gauged by track and 1/4 - 1/2 mile.

By then, electric cars will be relatively standard. I think ICE will be seen as a connoisseurs choice, similar to vinyl.
Just my own speculation.

 

I’d kindly disagree with this. If EVs become the standard, demand for oil would absolutely plummet therefore driving prices down. Yes there would be less producers so supply would come down too but likely no where near how much demand would come down.



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I don't expect any of this to affect my life in foreseeable future, if ever, but I always find it funny how many of those not even living here get their undies twisted too tight with many of the "local" decisions made here.
And please, don't give me any childish replies.

 

Of course, EVs are about politics. Wanna guess how much companies like Tesla contribute to politicians?

That said, EVs will eventually be market driven. The vast majority of car owners consider their car to be an appliance. They want it to look nice and WORK. Because an EV has far fewer parts than an ICE car, they will be more reliable. Once someone develops a quick charge method, ICE cars will be toast.

Ps There is a dark side to EVs. They need to be sealed because there is a major electrocution risk.


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Major changes always happen slower than predicted . I remember being told those boat anchor PCs were going to change the world in the early ‘90s. They eventually did - about 20 years later.

But don’t kid yourself. We’ve already passed the tipping point for alternative energy versus hydrocarbons. If you don’t believe me check out the price of XOM. Yes, oversupply plays a role, but the larger picture is demand destruction. What the stock market is saying is that even after the frackers go bust, demand is not coming back to what it was.

But, yeah, you’ll have plenty of work. Not so sure about your grandkids though.


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Doesn't matter as you can convert to E85 and make more power anyway. If you want E98/100 I guess that could be done, but E85 a lot easier to find and cheaper now and probably then, too.

 

Again, none of this is enough for personal concerns to waste much of my precious time on to worry about and since we don’t have kids/grandkids, well...
Actually glad about the latter since my generation, i.e. “boomers”, for several decades already have set a course for the future so ****** **, I’d feel sorry for leaving it to them.

 

Oil will never run out. The earth constantly makes the stuff. In fact we have so much of it, it honestly should be free. That said..the tolerance for oil will run out far before it will. However, oil will never not be needed. It will always be a huge commodity it's used in almost everything we manufacture.

 

You and I and our kids will be long gone before any kind of oil shortage ever takes place.

 

Faraday cage riot running car. Charge the exterior!!!

 

Those who follow energy markets tell me we have passed the tipping point.