Ideas to minimize depreciation/loss | FerrariChat

Ideas to minimize depreciation/loss

Discussion in 'FF/Lusso' started by ForeverCar, Sep 27, 2020.

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  1. ForeverCar

    ForeverCar Formula Junior

    Jan 20, 2017
    307
    I’m exploring purchasing a new 812 Superfast to drive for 6 to 7 months while I wait for my ordered 812 Superfast to be delivered. My objectives are having a V12 Ferrari in the garage to increase my chance of getting a 812 VS allocation and enjoy driving the 812 (by the time I take delivery of my ordered 812, it may be too late to be considered for an 812 VS allocation). I suspect this might be very costly but wanted to seek experienced inputs here as there may be other possibilities.

    If I’m lucky (weather cooperates and I can find time), I estimate ~5000 miles in the 6 to 7 months. The 2 obvious paths I came up seem very expensive,

    Path 1: Purchase outright, trade in when my car comes in. I estimate this to cost ~40% of the MSRP (depreciation & taxes) not counting tying up the capital for 6 to 7 months. There’s added risk of an even lower trade in value.

    Path 2: Lease. 3500 miles limit and I need to store the car while it sits for 6 more months after I take delivery of my ordered 812. I estimate this to cost ~50% of the MSRP.

    This might be the reality or I may not be creative enough. Please share your thoughts (feel free to PM/DM if that’s more appropriate). Does financing options exist for such a purchase?

    Thanks!
     
  2. Napoli

    Napoli Formula Junior

    Nov 18, 2017
    958
    Full Name:
    NOYB, Ray!
    I don't know how this is not blatantly obvious, but the best (and only) way to minimize depreciation/loss is to not buy the car in the first place.
     
  3. carz80am

    carz80am Formula Junior

    Sep 23, 2015
    620
    Northern Virginia/DC
    Your going to lose on the 812 you buy now and the one you having coming in. Buying a used one now will obviously minimize your loss, but the new one, your almost guaranteed to lose like 20%, depending on msrp. If you buy a new one now and get a new one in 6 months, you'll probably lose like 200k.
     
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  4. j34

    j34 Karting
    Rossa Subscribed

    Jun 13, 2019
    174
    USA
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    J
    I would think 20% is an underestimate. I love my 812 and am pretty surprised how much of a hit it’s taken and how many are on the secondary market. Probably due to SF90 and 812 GTS. I think 30% is probably realistic right now.
     
  5. wrs

    wrs F1 World Champ
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Jul 11, 2015
    11,920
    Lakeway, Texas
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    William
    Why would you think buying anything used will help you get a VS? Go read the VS thread, if you aren't a top customer with several recent cars already purchased and in your garage, you aren't likely to be offered a VS.
     
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  6. dcmetro

    dcmetro F1 Veteran

    Nov 27, 2007
    8,923
    Paris , France
    Full Name:
    Olivier
    Garage queen.
     
  7. ForeverCar

    ForeverCar Formula Junior

    Jan 20, 2017
    307
    Of course, this is very true. However, it doesn’t help with potentially getting an 812 VS allocation. But then, I also suspect it might not help that much. In addition to the driving enjoyment, I’m evaluating whether the cost of this “812 VS allocation lottery ticket” is worth it to me or not.

    The one I have coming in will be a keeper unless I get an 812 VS so I don’t mind that depreciation as much. I am estimating $200k loss for just the 812 for 6 to 7 months. :(

    Yes, I’m estimating a little over 30% with how much I plan on driving. Then add on the sales tax loss, it’ll probably be right around 40% (not including capital opportunity cost).

    Totally. It depends on how limited the 812 VS is. On one hand, I sort of doubt 2 new 812s, a new F12, and a new 488 GTB in the last 4 years is enough. Since I strictly prefer hardtop, I’m hoping for a Pista like difficulty for the 812 VS coupe with the the 812 VS Aperta being limited in numbers. This is very much buying a $200k allocation lottery ticket (with a bit of perks).

    This definitely will help. I suspect depreciation will still be very significant though from browsing the currently listed ones. I am guesstimating the miles will mean another $60k to $80k. Then I thought to myself, might as well enjoy the car if I do take this path.
     
  8. SeattleStew

    SeattleStew Formula Junior
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Apr 10, 2020
    983
    In the rain
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    Stew
    I don’t think there’s any way you can minimize loss on an 812 at the moment. I also don’t think the 812vs is going to have pista like availability. With the number of used 812s for sale, if you drive it 5000 miles in 6-7 months good luck offloading it.

    I thought about trying to get an 812vs, but it looked like I would need to have bought a pista, ordered new everything in the current lineup, and then just cross my fingers. Maybe it will have pista like availability, and just simply owning an 812 will get me one. I have my doubts, but I anticipated massive depreciation hits across numerous cars with a very slim chance of getting a VS if it’s truly limited.
     
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  9. greyboxer

    greyboxer F1 World Champ

    Dec 8, 2004
    12,282
    South East
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    Jimmie
    As post #5 if the first car is used it won't count very much towards your VS possibility - also isn't the consensus that 812SF is all but done it seems strange your new-build is due in the spring ?
     
  10. ForeverCar

    ForeverCar Formula Junior

    Jan 20, 2017
    307
    It’s great to hear the different perspectives and be reminded. Sometimes, I get distracted and become too optimistic. I think you’re right. If the 812 VS is truly limited, buying this extra 812 Superfast isn’t going to materially help my chances. I would be a bit sad if the 812 VS has Pista like availability and not having an 812 in the garage gets me disqualified (I speculate having an accepted order won’t count). I am also coming to my senses that even if the 2 812s get me the 812 VS, including depreciations, the 812 VS all in would cost US$850k+. Looking at it this way, I am happy to keep the 812 Superfast.

    The first car is an incoming new 812SF arriving soon so it should count. Yes, the 812SF is practically done and I was able to secure one of the very few remaining builds! :D Of course, there’s always the possibility of getting surprised but I hope not. It required jumping through a couple of mini-hoops (lock spec and wire non-refundable deposit within 24 hours).
     
  11. Nospinzone

    Nospinzone F1 Veteran

    Jul 1, 2013
    7,348
    Weston, MA
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    Paul
    Of course you could also wait until it comes out and then buy one with 200 miles on it at a discount because that owner only wanted to get in line for the next must have Ferrari. :D
     
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  12. colonels

    colonels Formula Junior

    Aug 5, 2011
    807
    the days of getting dealer allocation for highly desirable but non-limited production ferraris is past. the company is making too many models too quickly. one used to be able to get an early allocation drive it for a year then trade it back into the dealer at MSRP and the dealer could then flip it for over MSRP. it worked for the 458 spider and similar models before. but not now. i would buy everything on the secondary market. i doubt you will get a VS allocation your way but maybe if you get it in writing from the dealer it would be worth it.
     
    ScottS likes this.
  13. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Jun 11, 2013
    10,860
    Suggest you get a nice pre-owned GTC4 Lusso or F12 to tide you over. Warning: if you get the Lusso, you won't want to give it back. So, you will have zero (realized) depreciation :)
     
  14. ForeverCar

    ForeverCar Formula Junior

    Jan 20, 2017
    307
    Good point. The downside is, I don’t get to spec it. However, I suspect I can get over the spec quickly if I get to buy one as driving it is what I enjoy most. I hope Ferrari keeps building V12s (unassisted) but keeps dangling the “this is possibly the last one”. That way, speculators will eventually leave these amazing cars alone. :p

    Having thought about it some more, I think my chances of getting an 812 VS allocation is very low if it’s limited. And buying this extra 812 SF doesn’t change much (except a big financial loss for me).

    Great ideas. I have been looking at a few that I really like. I think I can hold off scratching the V12 itch for a few more months though. I still miss my F12 (one of my all time favorites) and hoping to keep the 812 SF as long as I can! I’m totally on the same page with respect to zero (realized) depreciation. Sooner or later, I think I will end up buying an F12 in addition.
     
  15. Texas Forever

    Texas Forever Seven Time F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Apr 28, 2003
    75,395
    Texas!
    Buy a 458 for say $170k. Drive the piss out of it and sell for $150k.

    I accept MasterCard and AMEX.


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
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  16. rob lay

    rob lay Administrator
    Staff Member Admin Miami 2018 Owner

    Dec 1, 2000
    59,406
    Southlake, TX
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    Rob Lay
    I'm all about educating people on the depreciation of Ferraris, but here is something that has me scratching my head. 3 years ago I could get a decent higher mile range F12 for $210k. I turned it down thinking it was going to be hit like most 12's especially with the 812 coming out. Well, 3 years later that is still a $190k car, bad decision. I could have enjoyed a 12 for 3 years with only $20k depreciation.
     
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  17. ForeverCar

    ForeverCar Formula Junior

    Jan 20, 2017
    307
    Sound advice! I did exactly that (not the dollar amount since it was a few years ago). I think I did 1500 miles a month or around that. The 458 is incredible! At this point, I realize my preference is V12s so I’m pursuing that direction.

    With design firm change, I suspect the F12s will hold value relatively well. Unfortunately, for me, I like to put so many miles on that the buyer pool shrinks significantly (I do maintain my cars extremely well and practical no wear other than the miles). Still, with “high” miles, it is a smaller buyer pool.
     
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  18. Quietriot

    Quietriot Karting
    Silver Subscribed

    Oct 28, 2018
    90
    812SF will be a forevercar like your name suggests, I do think that USA was under allocated and the 812SF will retain its value. Just wait and hope you get the call much earlier than expected.
     
  19. SeattleStew

    SeattleStew Formula Junior
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    Apr 10, 2020
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    Stew
    I almost did the same thing. I offered $180k on a 458 back in April while waiting for my 812. They turned it down, so I just paid for the air freight on the 812 and got it 6-8 weeks earlier.

    I think after this wave of 812 trade ins on the GTS sell, that’s going to show how limited the 812 is in the US. With such a short production run, should be good for values stabilizing. And if it actually is the last V12, then it’s just not going to matter how many were produced, values will go up across all the V12 cars.

    In the greater Seattle area there’s something like 20 812s rolling around. Just where I keep my car there’s 4-5 of them lol. It’s a great car, I absolutely love mine
     
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  20. Wheels1

    Wheels1 F1 Rookie
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    Oct 23, 2007
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    Grant
    Did you manage get one of the 3 remaining Superfast's to be built in the end?
     
  21. ForeverCar

    ForeverCar Formula Junior

    Jan 20, 2017
    307
    That is definitely my intention as I am planning to add the 812 Superfast to my “forever” collection. It certainly would be awesome to get the car sooner than expected.

    Air freight got you the car 6 to 8 weeks sooner? That’s awesome! I am thinking about that now.

    I store my cars at the same place and seeing the beautiful 812s there help pushed me over the edge! :eek: Next time I am there, I hope to see your 812 so I can take a closer look at the PPF install.

    Shh! ;) I think I got one of them. I am hoping there will be no big surprises.
     
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  22. SeattleStew

    SeattleStew Formula Junior
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    Apr 10, 2020
    983
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    Stew
    Another fun perk to the air freight, Ferrari provided a guaranteed done date. In my case it was June 29th (it finished production June 15th). It flew July 1st, which is probably why they provided a guaranteed date since the flight was scheduled. There was another 812 that completed about the same time as mine, and the owner received it early/mid August. Mean while I had just gotten the car after PPF and countermeasures. Well worth the $16k in my opinion.

    Seeing it there is tough since I'm always out driving it :D. Nearly 3800 miles now since August 12th. I'll shoot you a message when it'll be there
     
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  23. Prancing 12

    Prancing 12 F1 Rookie
    Silver Subscribed

    May 11, 2004
    2,649
    The long way home
    I'm scratching my head with this one...

    At this late stage of the model cycle, with 812GTS' landing and VS' incoming, the depreciation on a new 812SF will be at its steepest. If you're looking to minimize depreciation, the best idea IMO would be to scrap the 812SF altogether (new and certainly an interim used car) and just pay market price on the 812VS... The overage on the 812VS is likely less than the loss you'll incur on the 812SF(s).... You might not get to spec the VS, but at this point, if you don't already know you have a car, the chances are slim you'll be getting a car anyways (despite what the dealer is willing to tell you)...
     
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  24. SeattleStew

    SeattleStew Formula Junior
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    Apr 10, 2020
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    Stew
    I would feel pretty confident in our dealer securing a build slot for him. They sell a lot of cars for Ferrari, I'd imagine they would be able to get a slot. I had a conversation asking about 812 availability, and they felt pretty good that in the US you'll still be able to order them for the next year in very small numbers.
     
  25. Il Co-Pilota

    Il Co-Pilota F1 Veteran

    May 29, 2019
    6,023
    Hopefully some place nice.
    Full Name:
    A.B
    A used 812 which has been regisered, has zero influence on your VS chances. Find a Lusso which is brand new which has not been registered yet. That will add some points as it will be both a notch in the V12 belt, but you wilk be represented in both the GT and Sportline.

    What else do you own and have purchased new? If the 812 you have coming is the first and only new car in your inventory, I don't see you being even remotely close unless it is as high volume as a regular Speciale or something.

    Without knowing, I'd say a few cars including at least one recent VS car is needed. I as everyone else don't know for sure, but a VS V12 is ushally not offered to people with only one or two new cars.

    Sent from my SM-G930F using FerrariChat.com mobile app
     
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