Maranellos are disappearing

It’s an interesting point, Alan. Lots of people predicted distressed sales by now, at the start of the pandemic. The economy has shrunk by around 15%. All those people who bought classics as investments on credit would be forced to sell.

the reality is different. Prices haven’t collapsed, including for Maranellos. As you say, nobody is selling really, which means if anything prices may be ticking up - Maranellos are disappearing again, at least the good ones.

I may be a typical case study. I have a gated 575 which I love but which I barely drove in 2020, due, as you say, to nowhere to drive to. If I wanted a fun home to home drive for a day during the sunny spring lockdown, I took my gated 430 Spider. My business has not sadly emulated yours in growing this year, but equally I have no pressure to sell, and my 575 would be one of the last things I sell in a fire sale. Would I sell it in a boom, if the price suddenly tripled- different question.

Yet I also think there has been a genuine uptick in demand. People have more time at home, less travel, are thinking more about enjoying life while it lasts. People are also aware of the looming end of the ICE era. A generation is thinking, if I don’t buy a Ferrari now, I may never have a proper one.

what I can’t explain is why more people aren’t being forced to sell, by circumstances. Surely there are classic car owners whose businesses have sadly been hit by the crisis? I just don’t see those fire sales though, otherwise I would be buying.

and finally..maybe they are not selling because it’s not a great time to sell, if I had to sell my 575 I am not sure what I would actually get. So, a slightly stagnant market, until either buyers or sellers get fire under their a**.

 

The unusual uptick in the collector car market also extends to other types of vehicles and marques during the covid era.

Complete opposite of what I expected.

 

The inevitable has been postponed as a result of the following concessions:-

Payment holidays on vehicle finance coupled with a suspension of reposessions.
Payment holidays on Mortgages.
Furlough.
Self Employed grants.
Rent holidays for businesses.
Business rate holidays for businesses.
Business Rate Grants for small businesses.
CBILS loan scheme.
BounceBack Loan scheme.
Deferment of VAT.
Deferment of Self assessment Tax.
A suspension on legally enforceable evictions.
A suspension on house repossessions.

I have never seen anything like this in my lifetime, it's unprecedented.

There are so few distressed sales in the UK as almost all of the mechanisms that would generally force the event have been suspended or the potential distressed vendor is being susbsidised by one or more of the above.

The only question is how long the above continue and how are those that are relying on them weaned off and when?

 

You'll also find this interesting and pertinent to the seeming lack of distressed selling.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/covid19/2020/11/02/reform-bankruptcy-laws-to-save-businesses-from-going-under/

 

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In case it is helpful, I found these interesting statistics that seem to indicate that 550/575 are becoming rarer. Check it out:

Love to hear your thoughts. We may be at an inflection point where this model is becoming rarer:

https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/ferrari_575m_maranello

 

That is neat data but I must not be reading it correctly looks like there are still 186 cars just fewer taxed for road use?

 

FYI, all vehicles in the UK must either be taxed or declared "off road" (SORN - statutory off road notice). So, in theory, the figure should be constant except for vehicles that have been written off or permanently exported. The data looks very suspect to me.

 

Yes, in theory, although it continues to surprise me how many Ferraris pop up out of the woodwork that have been sitting in a barn somewhere and haven't been taxed or SORNed for many years.

The figures on HowManyLeft are not accurate. They come from DVLA data but the DVLA aren't very good at correctly recording models and, indeed, all Ferrari models prior to 2003 are not distinguished at all. Or perhaps rather, to be fair, it is the data supplied to the DVLA that is at fault.

To give you some idea, at the end of 2016 I corresponded with the DVLA about 2015 registered 458 Speciales since they were an easy model to check with only a small number of relevant cars. The DVLA figures showed only 8 such cars registered in the UK. They very kindly and helpfully replied, from which it was clear that 2 cars were incorrectly recorded as 458 Speciale Apertas, 23 had no model at all (just recorded as Ferraris) and one was recorded as a Laverda motorbike!!

I haven't updated my own numbers for a few months because it takes a lot of work to match everything up, although I am in the process of doing so. However, I can confidently say there are more than 200 575 Maranellos registered in the UK (not including Superamericas) and more than 400 550 Maranellos (not including Barchettas).

 

I know a significant (in the context) number of the 69 UK RHD 575 manuals made, have been exported to Malaysia, Singapore and other APAC territories.

 

Quite a statement at RM tonight. A nice car with extremely low miles, but a ‘99 sans modulars and deferred maintenance, hammered at $257,600 w/ vig.

https://rmsothebys.com/en/auctions/az21/arizona/lots/r0028-2000-ferrari-550-maranello/1015219

Very few blue chip 550’s have hit the market publicly in the last 10 years here in the US - no more than 5 by my recollection - and none among the top auction houses. So this sale seems to be a milestone that represents a somebody willing to sell his blue chip 550 at a theoretical record price, a reputable auction house taking it at a strong estimate, and a buyer paying a public record on a car that is not a 10/10 example.

There has been chatter than BaT is a fantasy land that doesn’t represent the broader market, to which I have disagreed. My opinion is that there is increased demand as these cars’ ethos continue to be more attractive day by day. And as objects become en vogue, the opportunity to buy a top 5% example is valued above a linear expectation based on myriad sales among the bottom 50%, which logically comprise the majority of sales when nice cars are worth more than market price to their owners.

Furthermore, despite wealth creation at an all time high, this occurs at a time where auctions are essentially virtual and enthusiasm for cars is harder to share and be shared. Had this car been at a non-pandemic Pebble Beach with this level of liquidity available, it would have really made a splash...

 

The ultra rich building collections is a real situation right now. That 2k mile 575 recently on BaT surprised me...even more surprising was the RNM.

The market right now is fascinating.

if a guy has a collection of even more than say 4 cars....it’s hard to find time to use all them (I can’t use all of mine) so why not pay way up for a museum piece....especially for a guy that has plenty. The American Dream is being filled by many guys right now and it’s neat to watch.

I’m a Meyers Manx owner and it might have been at the same auction, “Mog” went for $90k before fees.....that’s bananas.

so many weird things going on.

 

I agree there is a slice of the buying population with an “I’m taking my profit and diversifying” psychology, but I’m not so confident it’s the only segment buying.

The public data on BaT that shows a few mega buyers vacuuming up many cars, yes. But my opinion, for what it’s worth, is that people who are legitimately building collections aren’t buying 37K mile driver-level cars. To me, the demand there is just because these modern classics are starting to galvanize themselves as more engaging, enjoyable, satisfying to own - and still far cheaper - than contemporary offerings. It’s a rising tide across the board.

There have always been wealthy guys who want Ferraris and other fun cars. 430s were $300K when they were new and economy was a wreck. I think preferences are changing and fundamental demand is shifting. In short, these days rich guys are happy to pay $150K for a driver (which is essentially what a very mediocre 992 4S lists for), and wealthy guys are happy to pay $250K+ for a blue chip.

They aren’t making svelt, sleek, three pedal, normally aspirated cars anymore - just cluttered self driving rockets that would fly if they had wings, and less and less people are inspired by them every day. These cars are limited in number and timeless. No longer being made and never will be again. This is why it’s 4 years to get a Singer or Ruf, and they’re coming in at $0.8-$1M much of time. I think the answer is right in front of us!

 

Hi,

Sorry if anyone thinks this is OT, but honestly when I saw this on my cell phone (and I am not on FB, only twitter) I was at first shocked that another Maranello had bit the dust.

pic.twitter.com/6Q5hGS7ci8

But no, once I clicked on the pic I was relieved to see that the wheel only has four bolts and the rear light suggests this was just another Bimmer (?) that hit a hard tree (beech I think) in Poland. What a relief. Carry on.

Cheers!

 

https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/1999-ferrari-550-maranello-2

It will be interesting to see what it goes for!

 

The bidder "Zippy" is buying for Targa Florio cars. He's won multiple cars that have gone straight on their website with a suitable margin.

It's always interesting to see a what level he bows out, it gives an indication of the appetite for a dealer to spend his own money on taking something into stock as opposed a SOR arrangement.

 

Algar appeared to have an "incoming" 1999 Grigio/Bordeaux with 21K miles @ $140K, but it seems it's sold before they could get pictures.

 

The US market for this era of car appears perkier than the UK at the moment. Manual 430s also. Possibly related to all of us being confined to holes in the ground ATM. Although plenty of other cars selling well here.

 

New BaT record for a 2000 14k mile example in popular spec, $176k: https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2000-ferrari-550-maranello-14/

 

@niftyfivefifty Covering Brian @EZ2SPD sale over on this thread as well. https://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/market-prices-575-manual-vs-575-f1-conversion-costs-vs-550.629834/page-7

 

Indeed it did.

 

There are a handful of guys on here that have straight up eagle eyes on what’s available!

 

Congrats! Are you local?

Between the group here, I think we've got the US covered pretty well...

 

Thank you! Not local to Philly and I'll leave lurker status and properly intro the car once it's here.

 

Excited for you and excited to hear the story when the time is right. Lotta guys "making dreams happen" lately.