812 VS Rumors | Page 129 | FerrariChat

812 VS Rumors

Discussion in 'F12/812' started by Frenzisko, Feb 10, 2018.

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  1. Tommy Boy

    Tommy Boy Karting

    Aug 27, 2020
    198
    Full Name:
    Thomas
    Only 299 Aperta? Not sure it makes sense to make fewer units than next Icona or LaF replacement.

    Buyer pool is bigger now than TdF, so if they make 299 units, the collectors are all over it and Aperta IMO goes to north of $2M on resale minimum
     
    Caeruleus11 likes this.
  2. Forza Scuderia

    Forza Scuderia Formula Junior

    Jan 13, 2015
    572
    Ferrari is a public company with a mandate to maximize revenue and profits for shareholders, not to maximize aftermarket profits for collectors.

    The way they go will be determined by their estimate of how many of each they can sell.

    For example, both the regular 812 SF coupe and the GTC4 Lusso were silently taken out of production due presumably to softening order books.

    The GTS order book is humming mainly because there has been no production V12 convertible available for 40 years.

    If Ferrari interpret this as overall only modest demand for V12 product then they will make the cars numbered production and price them higher.

    For example for a numbered production 812 VS they could charge DOUBLE the 812 SF or around $750k usd. For the 812 VS Aperta if it was numbered they could get even more, figure around $1-million usd.

    If both cars are ‘limited time’ versus ‘limited number’ they would only be able to charge perhaps a $150,000 +\- premium over the standard production car which would put the base of each at around $500,000 and $575,000 respectively.

    In other words if they are confident the order book for the coupe would be around 1,500 units and for the aperta around 1,000 units they may decide to go limited time production versus limited number production.

    If they have any concern whatsoever that the demand would be that high they would limit the number and raise the price to a full collector premium as outlined above, limiting each car to say 799 coupe and 499 aperta. If they did this they would probably make as much money or even more because the revenue would be the same and their cost of goods sold would obviously be dramatically lower because they are only making half the cars.
     
  3. Challenge64

    Challenge64 F1 Veteran
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Jul 28, 2004
    6,299
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    Ron
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  4. Tommy Boy

    Tommy Boy Karting

    Aug 27, 2020
    198
    Full Name:
    Thomas
    Good analysis but disagree with one thing - Ferrari do care about aftermarket profits for those who get an allocation. Because it will motivate those who do not get an allocation to buy more regular production models for future special versions. Ferrari made lots of $$$ overproducing the Pista but also pissed off important repeat buyers. I assume they would want to right the ship with the (2-10%) profile VIP class. Making the 812 GTO number limited and ensuring instant price appreciation will help with that.

    Being a public company does not mean they start acting against their own best interests. Pissing off the repeat buyers twice definitely is not in their interest.

    My guess: 799 coupes and 599/699 Aperta - US$800K for base coupe, US$850K for base Aperta. Win for them in terms of maximum $$, big win for those who get an allocation, and motivation for repeat buyers with no allocation to step up their buying.
     
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  5. BarryK

    BarryK Formula 3

    Dec 17, 2016
    1,160
    Europe
    Full Name:
    Barry K
    I agree with this thinking. They have milked the regular buyers with the Pista and may well do a true limited edition with the 812VS from the point of view of preserving brand value.

    Frankly, I don't care as long as they make it sound as good as the 599GTO, look as good as the tdf (but definitely make it handle better than the tdf), and don't get carried away with electric motors in a horsepower race!
     
    KenU likes this.
  6. Forza Scuderia

    Forza Scuderia Formula Junior

    Jan 13, 2015
    572
    Here’s what YOU are missing. The best thing about getting an allocation for a VS car is that you can choose the colors and detail spec yourself. Either at the dealer level or through Atelier or Tailor Made. This is valuable even if you are not a collector but even more so if you are. That is the value of an allocation. Plus not having to pay up in the aftermarket for something that isn’t even the exact spec you wanted. That’s what’s important to a sincere customer who is a genuine enthusiast and supporter of the brand. Ferrari gives not one whit about customers who want to flip cars in the aftermarket and make the profit that THEY could have made. Allocation for a VS is about rewarding their best and deepest customers. Their most die-hard fans. And yes good customers who buy a good amount of cars because they want them and love them and love the brand. It’s not about rewarding people who bought a bunch of cars they didn’t want in order to get a limited number car so they can flip it. Ferrari is not worried about offending those customers because they are not truly in love with the brand, they are just trying to game the company and profiteer by losing a little bit on a few cars and then making a big wallop on the one and then doing it again. All this does is flood the market with more used cars and the only one who achieves outsize gain is this bad acting customer. Ferrari wants VS cars in strong hands who deserve them. Nobody should be buying cars from the factory because they are seeking to make a profit on a future allocation. I’m sure Ferrari doesn’t care at all if these people get miffed by their little scheme getting foiled because Ferrari sold as many cars as they could. Nor should they. Customers playing that game get what they deserve.
     
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  7. LVP488

    LVP488 F1 Rookie

    Jan 21, 2017
    4,839
    France
    This seems a little idealistic to me. The real question for Ferrari is to maximise profit, they cannot afford to select the philosophy of their customers. So they have to balance the pros and cons of their strategies, they most probably do not want to limit their customer base neither to die-hard enthusiasts nor to cold-blooded flippers. They need to attract enough in both categories, and that's probably a difficult marketing exercise for them.
     
  8. BarryK

    BarryK Formula 3

    Dec 17, 2016
    1,160
    Europe
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    Barry K
    Anyone who thinks the old game where Ferrari gifted you a big instant profit on a VS (for whatever reason) is smoking dope. In the post-IPO world, shareholders get the last penny, not the old favourite/loyal customers. So whatever the production numbers are, you can be sure that the VS will be priced accordingly. I think anything limited like sub-1000 pieces will be $700k which is where the previous VS, the F12tdf, is currently. Or they could open the production up more and price it at $500k. Eiherway, I doubt there is big money to be made instantly like it used to be.

    As for the value of an allocation, like the Pista, plenty wanted an allocation to spec their own car, but the secondary market doesn't care, resulting in a big shock for those who thought they were on to a winner.

    I think it is now just a case of buying the car if you want it, and can afford the price of entry/depreciation.
     
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  9. JagShergill

    JagShergill Formula 3

    Dec 31, 2014
    1,661
    England
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    Jag shergill
    Lots of fun speculation - as it should be ! !
    In summary I believe ( imho )
    - lists from factory already distributed at different dealers but different times due to different territory priorities / practicalities
    -812 coupes ( £450k-£500 base) and 299-499 Apertas ( £600k-£700k) numbers still to be determined by factory themselves -
    - launch , or at bare minimum ‘leaked ‘ photos / specs By feb14th latest
    -2 launch cars will include a Bianco or a Giallo
    - 880 bhp
    - rear elements showing muscular more aggressive form with some 1off omologata features -
    stricter allocation criteria than tdf
    - trick active aero
    - penultimate V12 na/non assisted
    - etc etc ... is hoping for a kickass TDF++
    All guesstimates with a mix of listening to theses chats and some eductated conversations ....
     
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  10. Thecadster

    Thecadster F1 Veteran
    Rossa Subscribed

    Apr 27, 2017
    6,705
    I would happily pay the depreciation cost if I they produced enough for me to be allocated one. This might not be a popular opinion, but I wish they would price it at $600-$700, just over the SF90, and then crank out enough for the plebe’s like me to have a shot. I think long-term the car will perform in the secondary market, even if they stretched out a little on production. It will have no real equal, assuming they sprinkle it with the usual Ferrari magic dust.
     
  11. George330

    George330 Formula 3

    Oct 19, 2009
    1,342
    Switzerland
    Full Name:
    George
    I don’t think they will price the car above the SF90
    Also it is absolutely true that many top clients are not happy about the Pista situation. This car will be a good buy for those who get it. It is wrong to believe that Ferrari do not want their top clients to make money from the limited cars. If they make every Ferrari a depreciating asset they will get FAR fewer serial buyers


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
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  12. ilcapodizurigo

    ilcapodizurigo Karting

    Oct 16, 2019
    192
    Los Angeles
    Full Name:
    John Meier
    Why the heck is everyone thinking that "time limited" is relevant? Stop buying into the sleazy sales guy talk. They said the same for the 812 GTS. What does that even mean - jack shi*... Think of it, 812SF discontinued, GTC4Lusso (V12) discontinued, Monzas will soon be done. So the entire V12 factory line is dedicated to pumping out a ton of 812 GTS. Production stop for 812 GTS will be well into 2022 (long time). Meaning - not exclusive hence forget the entire time limited. Doesn't mean anything.
     
  13. day355

    day355 Formula 3

    Jun 25, 2006
    2,058
    Which the exception of the FUV, which will be the last ?;)
     
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  14. ilcapodizurigo

    ilcapodizurigo Karting

    Oct 16, 2019
    192
    Los Angeles
    Full Name:
    John Meier
    Totally agree! The only point in getting an allocation is to spec it. Check F12TDFs up for sale today. The ones on the market are either red or yellow with tasteless contrast stitching etc. etc. No offense, but if you ordered an F12TDF in rosso corsa with a black interior & yellow stitching - you don’t really get it (IMO). The pretty ones on the other hand will never hit the market; or almost never do. Secondly, I agree the cars should be reserved for the real top clients. However, I find that Ferrari still has not managed to evaluate its VVIP customers well enough. I still think, with the TDF, which was a hard car to get, a large portion of the folks who got an allocation were not real Ferraristis. Many were car dealers who simply bought many in the past and sold them. These cars should end up with collectors who drive them, appreciate them and love them for what they are & stand for over many years. Not with some nouveau-riche Lamborghini clientele pricks, who flip them the minute they get their hands on it. Surely, you can’t avoid people from doing so, but at least be sure that 95% of the clients you select are sure not to! With the TDF I’d say that only around 50% of the “799” were allocated to real top clients. The rest - who knows... Regarding the future, I don’t believe these discussions will happen for the 812VS replacement nor for anything else past this. Even if it’ll be a hybrid/assisted 4.0L V12 it will not be the same! By the time the 812VS successor will be designed we’ll be approaching some ridiculous EU 2030 plan packed with regulations - there is no way they’ll be able to produce N/A 6.5L V12 engines. This is it my friends. Hoping everyone who deserves one will get an allocation. Almost certain the presentation will take place at the rescheduled Finali Mondiali beginning of March. Criteria will be announced in mid February. Looking forward to further great convos on here. -Sempre Ferrari
     
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  15. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3

    Apr 2, 2012
    2,064
    England
    Full Name:
    Scraggy
    What’s free, it has to be paid back ?
     
  16. Tommy Boy

    Tommy Boy Karting

    Aug 27, 2020
    198
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    Thomas
    Forza, you seem a tad upset. No need to get aggressive or shout with all caps. We all are more or less on the same team.

    I agreed with most of your original analysis but have no idea where you're going with your follow up.

    1. Is Ferrari well served or not by limiting numbers of VS? I am arguing they are, and should limit the numbers in order to preserve brand value.
    2. Is it ok to piss off repeat buyers? I am saying they definitely can not repeat the Pista experience. Pista buyers were super excited to get a 488 VS and may have bought an extra Lusso or Portofino to qualify. When the VS was over-produced, many of those buyers were miffed.
    3. Your original point was that as a public company, all that matters is selling the max number of cars. In your follow up, you argue that people who buy multiple cars in order to get an allocation should "get what they deserve". What does that even mean?
    4. Is it ok for a repeat buyer to have extra motivation to get a somewhat rare allocation. Somewhat rare, as in TdF-level rare (not Icona). I am saying it's 100% a good thing. Are you saying that its' a bad thing because profiteering is inherently evil and bad for the brand?

    Whatever one's intent, whether it's to buy cars to impress, or to buy cars because one loves driving, or to get a GTO allocation to then flip for profit, it's all MOOT. Why? Because a Ferrari buyer who buys multiple new cars is Ferrari's most important asset.

    We can agree on that, right?
     
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  17. Forza Scuderia

    Forza Scuderia Formula Junior

    Jan 13, 2015
    572
    Respectfully, this perspective is not accurate. While ‘Limited Number Production’ means the most, ‘Limited Time Production’ still means a lot. Ask almost anyone who tried to get an allocation for the Pista Spider. Limited time production is significant. For example, the Regular Production Ferrari 458 was produced for 5 model years in numbers exceeding 12,000 units. By contrast, The Limited Time Production 488 Pista Coupe was made for only two years in about 3,500 units. Nobody who wanted a regular production 458 didn’t ultimately get one. Many people who wanted a 488 Pista Coupe didn’t get one. And a far higher number of people who wanted a Pista Spider were left out in the cold. Regardless of which method Ferrari chooses to produce and allocate the 812 VS Coupe and Aperta, you can be damn sure that a ton of really good Ferrari customers who wanted one won’t get one.
     
  18. Forza Scuderia

    Forza Scuderia Formula Junior

    Jan 13, 2015
    572
    #3220 Forza Scuderia, Jan 17, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2021
    Trust me I will lose zero minutes of sleep because you ‘don’t know where I’m going with my follow up.’

    For the benefit of others on here who have similar viewpoints to what you are espousing, I will address the following points:

    1. ) Ferrari determine holistically whether a model should be Number Limited or Time Limited based upon what is in their own best interest, mostly from a maximizing revenue and profits perspective while balancing it against maintaining an appropriate halo of exclusivity or difficulty in obtaining any given VS model.

    For those trying to handicap which way they are going to go with the 812 VS, let us all realize there is no perfect reference or definitive algorithm we can use. Everything with a VS is case by case. For example, 458 Speciale Coupe limited by time not number but 458 Speciale Aperta limited by number.
    F12tdf limited by number. Both Coupe and Spider version of Pista uncapped production number but limited time production. So nobody can use a blanket statement about which way Ferrari is ‘best served’ because they have done and will do either one depending on dozens of factors which are not assessable by people outside of the company. Otherwise they would make an announcement such as ‘henceforth every VS will be limited production number’ or vice versa. But of course they aren’t going to do that. Because they always want to try and gauge demand and which way they are better off from the profitability and exclusivity halo perspectives.

    2.) As I stated before, Ferrari doesn’t care if profiteering motivated repeat buyers get offended because these cynical and greedy small minded pikers can’t flip their allocated VS for a large enough profit. Let me say this more plainly. Anyone who repeat buys Ferraris with the goal of getting allocated a VS they can flip for a profit is a ridiculous scaliwag. If these people spent a tenth as much time, energy and mental calories analyzing and trading stocks they would make much more money than the paltry six figure ill-gotten gains they are getting so exercised about not realizing. By your logic, Ferrari wouldn’t even need to sell cars to individual buyers. They could just sell them to hedge funds or special purpose investment vehicles with a promise to allocate them a future numbered car. Then there wouldn’t be any available to individual flippers. Or to people who think like that. Maybe they should do that.

    3.) It’s obvious what it means but I don’t mind explaining the obvious for people. It means if people repeat buy in order to get an allocation they hope to profit from, they deserve to get Pista’d. And they have only themsleves to blame, not Ferrari.

    4.) No it’s not ok for people who repeat buy to have the motivation of profiting from VS allocations. In addition to the small minded insincere gaming of the system they are wasting years of their life toiling over ... there is the larger injustice in that every scaliwag who does this is keeping an allocation from a true enthusiast.

    On the last of your points, Ferrari does not have to concern itself with appeasing flip profit motivated customers. Not even flip profit motivated repeat customers. These type of customers do not help them build the brand. True enthusiasts and affinity motivated collectors do.
     
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  19. Forza Scuderia

    Forza Scuderia Formula Junior

    Jan 13, 2015
    572
    I agree with you. Since this is in all likelihood the last unassisted V12 that will be produced ( outside of potentially a throwback Icona or two ) Ferrari should, from a ‘reward the larger fan base’ perspective, price it at $600k or $700k and let it rip in terms of production number. Take all comers. Anyone who places an order in the first 6 months gets one. Last chance at the Pure V12 Saloon. I hope that happens. I really do. However, while it is unpredictable, I can see 2 reasons why it may not go that way:

    1.) Demand for non-limited number front-engine V12s has historically been not as strong as Ferrari would have liked, no matter how spectacular they made the underlying car. The 812 SF coupe was $350k. Trying to get people to pay a $250k premium for a tweaked version of it without giving them the depreciation safety net of limited number production could be seen as too risky for Ferrari. If they don’t limit production they couldn’t confidently ask much more than maybe a $100k or $150k over the 812 SF. Look how much the Speciales and Pistas were priced above the base car. Less than $100k over the base car.

    2.) The F12 TDF demonstrated to Ferrari that they could get $750k for a non-hyper car if they limited its production to around 799 units. If you’re Ferrari do you fill the natural demand and supply equilibrium for a two year production run of 1,500 units at $500k or do you limit the production to half that number and charge double the price? Unfortunately the latter results in the same absolute amount of profit and dramatically higher profit margin while enhancing exclusivity even more. Oh and having to do far less work and take much less risk.

    Therefore, while it isn’t what I would want to see happen, and with the caveat that it is not possible to predict using purely logic, if I were to wager on this, my bet would be that BOTH will be limited number production as per the conclusions of the above analysis. Add in the lingering economic grey clouds from the pandemic as further reason to use the lower risk allocation and pricing strategy.

    My prediction is that BOTH versions of the 812 VS will be Limited Number Production cars as follows:

    799 Coupes
    499 Apertas

    I hope I’m wrong.
     
  20. Forza Scuderia

    Forza Scuderia Formula Junior

    Jan 13, 2015
    572
    #3222 Forza Scuderia, Jan 17, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2021
    Finally, somebody who gets it. ^ Spot on.
     
  21. Forza Scuderia

    Forza Scuderia Formula Junior

    Jan 13, 2015
    572
    #3223 Forza Scuderia, Jan 17, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2021

    To the contrary ... what is absolutely true is that Ferrari will absolutely price the 812 VS above the SF 90 ... IF it is a Limited Number Production car.

    If the car is time limited production ( 2 years or less ) but not capped at any production number ... then it will be priced below the SF 90 ... but only because Ferrari wished to avoid risking potential buyers balking at paying up more than $100k or $150k above the 812 SF without the depreciation cushion of a limited number car.

    But the fact that those two scenarios will yield a price that straddles the SF 90 ( no pun intended ) is purely coincidental.

    What the SF 90 is priced at has no bearing whatsoever on how Ferrari will decide to price the 812 VS.


    It does not matter that the SF 90 is currently the regular production top of the line up. That will not stop Ferrari from pricing a limited number 812 VS north of $750k or $1-million if they choose that production limiting protocol.

    It is also not a pure price per horsepower hierarchy which determines how much they will charge. The fact that the 812 will have less total horsepower is not going to stop Ferrari from pricing it above the SF 90, provided of course that the 812 VS is limited number production. If it’s not, that’s a different story.

    Potentially offending various cohorts of Ferrari customers who have their knickers in a bunch over some petulant reason is not going to stop Ferrari from optimizing it’s profitability while maintaining the right amount of perceived exclusivity for a VS product.


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat[/QUOTE]
     
  22. jumpinjohn

    jumpinjohn F1 Veteran
    Rossa Subscribed

    Mar 22, 2013
    6,765
    Texas
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    John
    I am not one who will get an allocation and if I did, not sure I want to pay for it-especially $700k or up. I’m ok with that. The 812 SF we purchased is exactly what we ordered. I have never made a dime on any F car purchases but have darn sure enjoyed them!

    :)


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
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  23. Forza Scuderia

    Forza Scuderia Formula Junior

    Jan 13, 2015
    572
    Someone else who gets it! ^ Awesome!
     

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