812 VS Rumors

Thanks,

10,000 rev limit and 830PS would be good enough, even if everything else is identical to the 812SF. One minor exception, easy to remove GPFs with built-in factory ECU option, dealer settable is fine, but, that way, removal is pre-planned and the ECU will not require reprogramming or "OBDII" port blockers. If the factory will not make cars without GPF, at least they can provide an approved method for removal. And yes, GPFs do "absorb" high pitch engine sounds (i.e. short wavelengths disappear into the GPF honeycomb and do not escape), so removal is the only way 10,000 rpm is a fully audible delight!

 

Great analysis.

What is the rationale for 412 units for the Aperta? A non-Icona, MSRP less than half of Icona, produced in fewer numbers than Icona (499) - do you really think they would do that?

 

I share a yearning for everything you mention. But none of that is going to happen. Except the horsepower will be at least what you said. None of those other things will become reality on the 812 VS. And yet the car will still be massively desirable, highly sought after and coveted.

 

You’re right TB. They aren’t going to get cutesy and produce a number of units ending in 12. It’s going to be 799 and 499. The reason Ferrari does this is to symbolize Enzo’s ‘Sell one less than you could have’ philosophy.

 

Do you think there is any chance its hybrid? None of the spy shots I've seen indicate anything like that.

 

There may be a link between the fact SF sales evaporated when SF-90 was announced, but the SF comparison logic can't be used on the VS. Your question of who would want the car if... implies the car is made for the regular market - i.e the person who can afford it. It is not. The car is a repeat of the TdF and by invite only, so doubtful SF-90 comparisons enter into the eventual pricing formula or anything else.

And at several US dealers I know, the car is already creating big headaches. Every top profile client wants it, whether they have an SF-90 or not. And the dealers are in a quandry because though they can pretend Italy determines the invites, their top buyers are expecting an allocation no matter what.

All the info you post on the VS is greatly appreciated. Love the GPF insights

 

Nobody said there will be an event on Feb 12th, yes of course digitally for now!
Probably not a really prersentation as we are used to.....
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Thanks, but I was attempting to address the higher level clients in my thoughts (those seeking favor with the factory, that's them)...completely agreed, that's the "ready made" market for the 812VS (really, any car Ferrari produces, they purchase everything Ferrari creates). But that is a relatively small pool of buyers and even at '799 and 499' that could be too many cars, I think more likely 799 total (coupes and aperta) sort of like the Monza SP1/SP2, no set number of for either but a maximum pool of 499. And a seriously high base price, probably close to $1m.

If the 812VS is numbered, yes, by invite, the ready made list of buyers are "all in".

As for being hybrid, true enough, no test mules have shown any signs of electrification, but it would be a way to showcase what Ferrari can do and would set the stage (like rear-steering from the Tdf became part of the 812SF) for whatever model replaces the 812 family. Hybrid would also be a way to open the orders to all instead of numbered, specifically by attracting a larger group of buyers (again reflecting on what happened with the 812SF order book with the SF90 reveal) but at a lower base price. Selling 3000 at 500 base is nearly 2x the revenue of selling 799 at $1m base...and quite a lot more at a higher base.

The oddest appendage of the test mules is the rear exhaust 'boxes', always oversized, why? Just a distraction or is there something happening there? Extra cooling for an electric motor at the transmission (which is mounted at the rear of the car)? There was that one track video with odd mechanical sounds.



But, given all the odds and speculations, most likely numbered and a very high base price, that's the playing it safe prediction

 

On 799 and 499 being too many units - I just don't see that. I think any number around 499 gets super oversubscribed. Especially if it's half the price of an Icona. Even at 799 it is going to be way oversubscribed. There are so many people who want this car.

I wish the guys from Switzerland and Italy would chime in

Agreed on the weird oversized box - I've always thought it was a camouflage for something else. Can't wait for the unveiling.

Also agree that the safe bet is on numbered and very high base. I can't see this under US$700K.

 

799 coupes is the most you can make and still plausibly position as exclusive. 499 additional units of the convertible is the most you can make and still position it as the ‘ultra exclusive’ reward to the absolute most favored or prolific customers. And as a public company they are going to optimize for profits by making 799 + 499 instead of 799 combined. And yes even with 1,298 pieces total it will still be dramatically oversubscribed. That’s for the entire planet. They could sell more than that just in the U.S. Easily. In about 5 minutes. And that’s at $750k+ which is what it’s going to be. All day long.

In terms of the ‘odd boxes’ around the exhaust, I don’t believe this is anything more than a simple repositioning, reshaping and resizing of the molded exhaust pipe surround in order to accommodate the extra flared out ‘competitizione’ bodywork anticipated. This car is tipped to have even more aggressive and race car extreme styling than the F12 TDF.

I agree that on some of the test mule videos ... there is a peculiar extra layer of ... something ... emanating from the engine. It almost sounds like a mini turbine whining at extremely high rpms.

Pretty damn sure it’s not a turbo or hybrid. But what is it? I really hope it’s ... nothing ... and that it’s just a testing anomaly. If it’s something ... what could it be?

 

Just a pure guess... What could also happen is that, like for the Monza, there will be a total pool of X units (say 812, Monza was 499 total) and clients can choose between coupe or drop top (SP1 or SP2). In the end Ferrari will say how many were produced of each; or not. This, instead of a plaque in the car saying “one of 799“ it may only say “limited edition” like it does in the SP1 and SP2... We shall see...

 

Uuuhhh ... yeah ... no. They aren’t going to offer an ad hoc ‘pick em’ from a larger pool like you outlined. It’s going to be set number of coupes. A smaller set number of convertibles. With SP1 and 2 they were either taking a seat out or putting one in depending on customer whim. Coupe versus convertible not that ‘flipping a light switch’ easy. That would drive the factory managers insane. Zero chance of what you said happening. Still love you tho bruh.

 

The very existence of the Assetto Fiorano signals there is unlikely to ever be an SF 90 VS. The Assetto Fiorano IS the ‘track day special’ that would normally be the VS. Yes I know a VS has more thingamajigs than the Assetto Fiorano has. That’s Ferrari telling you ‘Yeah this is it. We aren’t going to try and knock 200 pounds off this beast and give it more power than the 1,000 it already has. This is your track day meal or appearance of one if that’s what you want. There’s not going to be an SF 90 VS. There’s also not going to be an F8 VS. They don’t do a VS of everything and they don’t like customers being able to predict what they are going to do so when they feel it is appropriate they are going to ‘break pattern’ and these two models NOT getting a VS are two examples of exactly that.

Now ... might the SF90 power plant and platform serve as the basis for an F40 Icona?

Yes and let’s hope so.

 

Maybe 12th february online digitally launch and on march circa two weeks after real launch at Finali

 

hope so

 

Not sure what the fuss is with the GPF. Picked up my GTS yesterday with the dealer installing Forza’s Exhaust valve controller. With the valves (and roof top) open, my slightly deeper exhaust note (compared to my non-GPF 812SF and TDF) was still crackling and singing like a Ferrari V12 always has. Such a magnificent engine. BTW I was reliably informed recently that existing TDF ownership (if purchased from new) is one of the criteria for at least scoring the coupe version, and if no current TDF ownership, then the purchase of several new f cars in recent years was required. Allocation is being controlled by Ferrari HQ in Maranello, not the dealer, and the criteria may be different for each region. I don’t know anything more than that.

 

I think you’re right. The next Icona will be an F40-style car from what I hear and one has to assume it will be based on the SF90 (hopefully minus batteries and 400 kilos!)



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Finali Mondiali 2021 in November 4th to 7th， There should be news about the next generation ICONA

 

I think so. At least I have been hoping exactly that since they announced the SF-90

 

I keep seeing two numbers here. Limited to 799 and limited to 999.

I know PPG so I'll take his word for it. No idea who you are FS..sorry.

 

Thank you for your kind words.

 

It doesn’t matter who you know. Use your head man. ‘Limited to only 999 pieces’ sounds like the punchline of a bad joke. I don’t think Ferrari is going to do that. Let’s see who’s right ...

 

Don’t we wish! Unfortunately if they make an F40 Icona it’s going to have twin turbos and battery hybrid system and be a development of the complete SF90 power train. What they will do is add something else like electric turbo chargers and raise the horsepower by another 100 or so bringing the total to around 1,100. And maybe they can make it 200 pounds lighter that’s about it. Would be an awesome car. If it has a giant F40 size wing on the back then put me on the list right now!

 

So much guesswork and assumption on this thread posed as certainty. I think the only things we ‘probably’ know, are that it will be limited, per the sources on fchat who have proved reliable in the past. My own guess is 999 because it still sounds low but is more than TDF - seems as good a number as any but this or the rest of this post is not presented in any, way, shape or form as certainty.

Lots of talk about Ferrari now being quoted and all they want is maximum profit - I’m going to assume this means ‘short term’ because this is implied by the “sell as many as you can, high price as you can, forget about what customers think” view. However, I personally believe Ferrari’s intention is profit maximisation over the long term, tempered with ensuring shareholders make enough in the short term to remain supportive. If this is true, first, it is a much better idea (and I can’t think Ferrari management really want to screw up long term value for the sake of short term value. That eventually gets found out as a poor strategy that ultimately hurts long term and short term). And second, it supports the idea of moderating the approach on VS 812.

Before production is signed off, suppliers need to be contracted. If the car is going to be a big departure from 812 (most of us seem agreed on that), the number needs to be decided beforehand and preparations made. This is quite different to a normal model because whether limited by time or number, it is still limited. More pieces = lower piece cost, but also lower retail price. Someone mentioned revenue (turnover) but that is not directly relevant to profit. If the car has an unlimited production - how many could they sell, 1,500, 2,000? - and a marginal piece cost of $250k and a wholesale price to dealer of $400k, the marginal profit is obviously $150k x 2,000 or $300m. If the wholesale price was raised to $600k over 999 units and piece cost rises to $280k, marginal profit is almost $320m. I don’t know the exact cost or sales price but I do know that in the motor industry the manufacturer sells to an importer at about 50% of retail price. Therefore manufacturer marginal cost is well below 50% of retail price.

I personally doubt the logic behind Ferrari wanting to “sell as many as they can to maximise short term profit”. For a car like this, where there is a real halo effect and you can probably make as much profit by limiting the number and raising the price, at the same time making those customers who can get one feel good about it, despite the high price, why wouldn’t you? Even if you could make a financial argument that makes you a bit more by flooding the market, the long term damage to the brand is just not worth the pennies extra that you make, if you make anything at all. Selling 2,000+ at wholesale $400k seems quite a bit harder than selling 999 numbered cars at $600k wholesale, especially in this Covid marketplace. If I was a “logical Italian” planning production build, I think I would want to choose a route that feels more certain and has been tried and tested in the past. 812VS limited only by time at a similar price to SF90 when there are coupes and spiders to sell of that car, sounds too risky to me.

 

agree. I think that 812 VS coupes and 299-499 VS GTS is still an accurate estimate.