True my concern though is that they made a lot of models produced between 800 and 1500 ( tdf, pista spider, monza, 812 gts, 812 vs coupe, 812 vs aperta) and all in a short period of time so the concept of limited edition has changed if they start making a new 800 pieces limited edition every year then it doesn’t mean much anymore to talk of limited edition
I would be very surprised if we do not end up with much more than 1500 812 Gts. However I do see your point!
well f12tdf is supposed to be under 800 pcs ( 799 ) and also Monza . Pista spider 1300? 812vs coupe ‘ 999 , 812 gts probably 2500? So , imho everything under 800 pcs should be a keeper if someone Can ... and if he can even more all the others “ semilimited edition “ )).. on the other hand I think that what should make something “ limited and very valuable “ is create something very unique for ex . 599 GTO and F12tdf had great sounding engine , 16m and 458 aperta the same but v8 and cabrio.. pista spider a great car but when the sound is not anymore close to the one of their predecessors became automatically “ less desiderabile “ even if is called or not “ limited “ . Ferrari’s enthusiasts follow mainly the sound not so much the performances imho . Anyway I got your point
I don’t think the 812GTS is a limited edition. That leaves the Monza 499, Speciale Aperta 499, TDF 799, Pista Spider around 700, and either 812VS or VS Targa since Ferrari will only sell you one or the other. That makes five limited edition cars in nine years from 2014 through 2023 by the time the 812VS Targa will be delivered. Thats about 4000 special Ferraris over nine years or approximately 500 per year. If Ferrari sells almost 10k cars a year wouldn’t you think at least 5% are either true collectors or enthusiasts that want to own a “special” Ferrari? Prices should remain stable for these extraordinary Ferraris and probably appreciate in the mid term. Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
I used to think similarly, but spend a little time on the 488/pista/F8 section and witness the trend. Too many of today’s buyers haven’t a clue on sound, and they dont care as long as the badge is yellow for bragging rights.
Ferrari convention is that only numbered cars are LE. Pista Spider does not qualify but Pista Piloti does.
I think we are entering a period where it could change again. When I bought our Speciale, I knew it was the right thing to do - last n/a etc. But that was not it; following the last financial crisis, cars like the CS could be bought very cheaply. I felt that would change because in a time of recession (not even recession, any period of dramatic value movement) a price movement becomes exaggerated. A few start to believe that prices will fall and try to get ahead of the curve but that creates a stampede, with most not knowing exactly why prices are falling other than “it’s the recession”. So they follow suit and prices continue to fall. I bought a CS, which I remember was quite a commitment at the time. Eventually, a few people begin to think, “wait a minute, why are these cars so cheap?” and the reverse happens. The point at which this changes for each model is, of course, only ever a function of demand and supply. So the bounce started a couple of years after and the used market started getting hot again. I figured when that happens, where can you find value? The new market. I swapped out of the CS that I bought as the 8th owner, and which I had nearly doubled my money on, into our first new Ferrari, the Speciale, which I got a late allocation for. (I paid over £140k more for a Pista Spider five years later so in that context, the Speciale was very good value). I could not have afforded the Speciale at that time without the increase in CS value. If you exclude dealer commission, the Speciale has never been worth less than what I paid for it, despite 6 years of fun with it. It proved the correct decision, but mainly because I preferred the Speciale - both cars have held value well. So, what do I think is the lesson? I believe there is always value somewhere, but to know where is the trick. Value in the context of a car enthusiast must also be counted in what you want to own and drive as well as purely financial. Prices/values are always driven by demand and supply so you have to predict the factors affecting demand and supply to even have a chance at knowing what might happen. When new car sales fall and used car prices increase, buy a new car - it will be rarer and should look good in a couple of years when you might want to sell (I was only able to buy the Speciale because people were still a bit wary of buying a new Ferrari in 2014 when I ordered it). The Buffett principle about being greedy when others are cautious and cautious when others are greedy seems sensible to me. But, he has another principle. And that is that it is inefficient to keep trading in and out of stocks because of the fees. So choose what you like and hold it long-term. This could relate to car collecting too. Over the long term, all these cars will be worth far more than the original owner paid for them. Inflation will see to that. Yet inflation has been weak and that gives us a false sense of what is really happening. Cheap money fuels the market and the economy, which in turn also fuels the market because either more people can afford a Ferrari, or feel they can afford a Ferrari. Speculators might try and trade in and out of cars as they rise and fall but you need to know exactly what you are doing, in fine detail, to repeatedly make that work - most don’t know nearly enough to make that work (including me). I remember last time some people had terrific headaches...big, big numbers. I think inflation, to some degree, must come over the next decade. That will give an automatic improvement to collectible car values, assuming other factors don’t change. Will it be as much as historically we have seen? Not sure about that, governments can’t really afford that because of debt levels. But can they help it? Interest rates are already ultra-low. If inflation does come, manufacturers will likely have to adjust for lower volumes but also higher prices. This will change their business model and both will change the way used cars are valued. In the end, using what people loved about cars historically is not a good predictor of what will be collectible in the future. Held for long enough, all cars will be worth more than we pay for them. When people are shouting “doom!” it’s a good time to think about doing the opposite of what they are doing. Lack of supply always helps demand but don’t forget that future (not present) demand for the product must also be considered. The best appreciation examples often come from cars that were poorly received (so didn’t sell many when new) and became icons afterwards. A 964RS is a great example of this. So is a McLaren F1. Both cars that struggled to sell and were therefore built in small numbers but are now worth much more. Right now it feels like new cars are under pressure and some used cars are seeing comparative growth in value. Ferrari are usually the exception but even they, last year, produced significantly less than the year before. I bet there are fewer F8’s built in 2020 than will be demand for them used in 2022 (post COVID and maybe more confident economy). People have said the F8 will drop like a stone but that is based on their opinion of the car and disappointment that Ferrari did a 3rd iteration on that platform. It might just do better than expected, at least for a year or so. It is so hard to know which of 599 GTO, TDF or 812 VS will long-term do better. How many were built v what our children will think of them when they can afford them will determine that. Plus whatever else competes for their disposable income. How can we know all that?! None of these can be considered as only financial investments - even if you don’t drive them, you have to enjoy owning and looking at them and consider that part of the value their purchase gives to you. As a financial investment, what chance have any of us of really predicting which is good? If you love the GTO, you could probably buy it when used prices are comparatively weaker and not do too badly with it. If you don’t love it, what’s the point? I guess 812 VS is safe for a while because it seems quite over-subscribed. Knowing where it will settle in relation to the others is a bit harder but if you are a long-term keeper it shouldn’t matter. If you’re a very long-term keeper you have to do well out of it, don’t you? It’s 90 percent certain...! As a post-script, if I were a betting man, I would guess GTO will always be weaker than TDF. Mostly because TDF is so beautiful. 812 VS? Who knows.
As always you are a great source of inspiration. Thanks for putting other complex people’s thoughts into simple words. I can’t agree with you more
I have been following TDF prices and secondary inventory/availability for some time now during all the hype built up around the launch of the 812 Comp. and Comp. Aperta. More recently I have started to observe that tdf inventory has been diminishing substantially, although I don't really see if there ahs been movement also in the price. Not sure if this is just random, or if the launch of the 812C has pushed interest towards the tdf generally or for people who didn't get an 812C allocation? Any insights?
I was at my F dealer this week with the TDF and they commented on the same, inventory is moving in advance of 812 Comp wich is expected to trade secondary market at $1.4M+, and the visuals have been perceived as less than expected. They asked if I wanted to sell mine.
Thanks for the color - so you think its a buy now as prices will go up? Not sure I see the 812 Comp going to 1.4M but if it did would it drag the tdf and GTO up with it?
When the TDF came out, first ones were offered at $1.2m. Today the market is just way way hotter than then so i would not be surprised to see some going for $1.4m. On top of that, the 812C is supposed to be the last non hybrid V12 VS is it not?
IDK on prices but history would say yes. I know one private party who is receiving the 812 Comp who has indicated $1.6M is the upper range (if/when someone can sell). This is pulling out the supply and increasing prices, marginally.
Here in the UK a couple sold recently and prices have bounced back a bit vs where it was a few months ago. It is also rarer than the 812C. It seems prices are firming up.
I have a feeling the 812 have pushed interest in the tdf on visuals, it has a more classic line, better sound and more raw while being rarer. My view they will go up
I agree I think younger buyers want the newest and fastest. I want them to hear me a mile away.....My Lusso is not the prettiest car I’ve owned. Far from it....but the best sounding. By a huge margin....Sound is everything in my book.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
