is the bubble due to burst? | Page 155 | FerrariChat

is the bubble due to burst?

Discussion in 'Vintage Ferrari Market' started by PFSEX, Jan 18, 2013.

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  1. intrepidcva11

    intrepidcva11 F1 Rookie
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    Seth
    mebbe for avoiding Calif emissions compliance? :-(
     
  2. DWR46

    DWR46 Formula 3
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    Seth: It is all about state sales taxes. Montana titles and plates are now a very common procedure. It all started with motorhomes and avoiding the sales tax on expensive motorhomes.
     
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  3. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    This thread is about 9 years old. In that time we've seen many people proclaim here with absolute certainty - The bubble is about to burst.

    I guess 'about' has different meanings to everyone. To these folks a decade is a 'short' period of time, perhaps they are immortal vampires?

    Gooding Results

    Now, don't get me wrong, I personally think we are in a 'bubble.' Just that I'm not brash enough to proclaim I'm Nostradamus and know exactly when adjustments will happen. Many people have staked their reputations here, yeah - I'm looking at you @Bradwilliams.

    Just making sure that the bar tab is reviewed.

    Which got me wondering, how much would a 10-year short option theoretically cost? @ttforcefed ?
     
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  4. Texas Forever

    Texas Forever Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    Problem is you have to hedge against the currency. By the time you’re done, you’re back into US rates. Funny how that works.


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  5. readplays

    readplays Formula 3

    Aug 22, 2008
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    Dave Powers
    (WILL stands in a parking lot, at night. Sounds of a freeway can be heard: passing semis, car horns, car stereos, etc., as well as the buzzing glow of neon signs and fluorescent lights overhead.)

    WILL. Now.
    ...
    ...
    ...
    Now.
    ...
    ...
    ...
    Now.
    ...
    ...
    ...
    Now.
    (The noise continues.)


    [WILL played by ANDREW GARMAN in Scene One of the brilliant SAMUEL D. HUNTER'S play, A BRIGHT NEW BOISE. (All rights belong to Mr. Hunter and SAMUEL FRENCH, Publishers).]

    Come on, @paulchua !!!
    O, ye of little faith !!!
    This thing will probably burst in the next couple of days, man.
    :p:D:eek:

     
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  6. energy88

    energy88 Two Time F1 World Champ
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    Mr. Market always times mayhem for when it will damage the maximum number of people.
     
  7. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    Well said, gentlemen. While I agree that things are 'frothy,' It's people that are 'short' with no position, that holds a special position of disdain in my heart.

    It shows a lot about their character (or lack thereof.)
     
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  8. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    2004 silver cgt went for $ 1.4M on manheim today!!!!!!!!!!! bought by McLaren chicago
    if cgt is $2m retail then F40s are $4m
     
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  9. amenasce

    amenasce Three Time F1 World Champ
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    Miles?
     
  10. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    3 or 4K miles
     
  11. colombo2cam

    colombo2cam Formula Junior

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  12. Ryan S.

    Ryan S. Two Time F1 World Champ
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  13. TTR

    TTR F1 Veteran
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    And here I thought this forum section was intended to be about Vintage Ferrari Market (if there even is such a “thing”), not F40's, McLaren's, Porsche's, Stocks & Bonds, world wide Housing/RE, etc.
    OTOH, if the goal posts are shuffled enough, perhaps that bubble burst can be postponed indefinitely ?
     
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  14. ralfabco

    ralfabco Two Time F1 World Champ
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    and the Barchetta is 350K. simple pocket change :D.


    Years ago a buyer asked if he should purchase a driver F40 or a mint as-new F430. At the time the F430 was the latest 8cyl F car. We all suggested he purchase the driver F40.
     
  15. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    hmm, the thread is now 9 years and counting.

    There were a lot of folks in this thread that bashed me when I said their predictions were wrong.

    Why are they so quiet now?

    9 years is a long time to be claiming the 'burst is around the corner'

    @Bradwilliams and @Super Dave why so quiet?

    Does either of you have the humility to admit error?

    ***

    Doubt it.

    I just love how the internet is forever.
     
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  16. tbakowsky

    tbakowsky F1 World Champ
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    Sep 18, 2002
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    Nobody could have predicted CoVID would happen. This drove the collector car market to new heights along with housing. Suddenly every home owner became a millionaire and had access to huge equity in thier homes. Many of those folks bought cars and other toys to fill the void of not being able to travel etc.

    Covid is not over and the chip shortage is still a thing. Many factors have led to this current state of affairs.
     
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  17. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
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    Covid happened 9 years ago?

    wow. I must have missed it.

    Generally, when I have the chutzpah to make short-term financial predictions, I don't expect folks to give me +/- a decade margin of error.

    You might have a more accommodating range.
     
  18. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
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    The very first post in this thread asked if $400k for a Dino was sustainable. Well, I guess the answer is "yes" because, while there is a range, it seems like $400k will still buy you a pretty nice one. Maybe a bit less, maybe a bit more, but pretty close.
     
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  19. Gh21631

    Gh21631 F1 Veteran
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    No one could have predicted that a world epidemic would cause the rise in luxury goods in general.
     
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  20. Texas Forever

    Texas Forever Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    What is the cost of full boat restoration of a Dino?
     
  21. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    I wld guess 150 to 200k ontop of the donor
     
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  22. ralfabco

    ralfabco Two Time F1 World Champ
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    250/300K for a full nut and bolt Countach restoration.

    The Countach does not have a rust problem.
     
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  23. TTR

    TTR F1 Veteran
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    Goes to show there are restorations and then there are restorations.
    Despite the general appearance of final product, one may not be same or have much in common with the other.
    All one has to do is choose accordingly.

    OTOH, what is a "full boat restoration" anyway ?
     
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  24. Texas Forever

    Texas Forever Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    So $400k is not unreasonable.


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  25. Texas Forever

    Texas Forever Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    Let’s say 2+. The car is still drivable.


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