488 488 Prices - What Are People Really Paying?

make offers you wont know till you do,my 18 488 gtb msrp was 298k 6800 miles in like new shape sold 6 months ago for low 240s was advertised 259k it was a buy,you wont know till you make an offer

 

I sold my 488 a year or so ago for $285K as I recall. Prices dipped a little during covid and then I think everything has gone up recently due to lack of inventory and/or inflationary pressures. I'm not sure what 488's are selling for these days, but typically Ferrari dealers get very near their asking prices in my experience, unless there is a very motivated private seller behind the scenes who wants out and doesn't care. However, of the car is owned by the dealership (in other words it's not just on consignment), then usually they hold the line pretty firmly.

I think it's because they know eventually some rich guy will walk in and want the Ferrari right away and an extra $10K plus or minus won't be as important as just having the car they want. So prices they ask are usually pretty close to where they sell.

Private sales are a different story. If you check the Ferrari market letters, usually there is a spread between asking and sales prices.

Ray

 

I would agree with this - most Ferrari dealers seem to know the market, and cars sell close to asking price. At least right now certainly. They really don't want cars to sit on the floor for a long time, and get stale.

Obviously some exceptions, but even prior to COVID it would be rare to see something sit for more than 3-6 weeks.

 

perhaps the mistake is assuming that the inflation on everything is 1) temporary 2) will result in deflation.
perhaps what we are experiencing is an upward reset of values/ prices that will eventually moderate but won't deflate.
perhaps what is going to happen over this new inflation/ hyper inflation cycle (expect this to last 10 years) will cause today's 'over inflated' prices to look like a deal this time next year.
Truly strange (and interesting) times.

 

Agreed Tim, and when you factor in that Ferrari is (apparently) making BIG moves to cease development of combustion engines (full announcement of who will replace ousted CTO Michael Leiters, coming January 10...just a few weeks) the back-catalog landscape is ripe for a massive upswing in values...or at least the plateauing of current values as the new baseline.

 

For sure it’s anyones guess and lots of folks stating continued inflation versus some major financial collapse that others say is imminent. Despite the 6 month Covid blip we have been in quite a tear financially for over a decade which historically means we are due for some correction. It’s certainly possible that with inflation rates will rise and some switch will flip into major correction, people with over inflated auto debt will walk leaving banks with massive default and prices could plummet? One thing for sure is no one knows for sure and Whomever is correct in 6 months may not be correct in 12 or 18 months..

 

for example on g63 amgs there getting 100k and over from msrp and banks are leasing and financing them at 100k over msrp crazy prices

 

I know Im shocked that a bank would finance that but Ive heard that as well. Its at a smaller scale than the housing crisis banks got into in 2007/08 but maybe more numbers as there has to be more auto loans financed than homes? You could see how that type of policy could have big bad consequences if there is a correction..

 

The market for auto loans is peanuts compared to mortgages - and even more so if you are just focusing on more exotic type vehicles. There is no contagion where that could, by itself, damage the overall economy. Just too small of a market, I'd guess around 10% of the size of housing debt.....then maybe 1% of that in higher-end stuff.

But, I'd look at it another way. If there is a significant economic slow-down/correction, it's going to cause a drop in demand and the potential for a steep drop in certain asset values. All of the resulting fall-out could be very messy, especially given the large run-up we have witnessed recently.

 

Excellent topics I really enjoy these discussions keep them coming. On order '22 F8s.

 

Our approach to everything is that our mental OS (operating system) is outdated and this new inflation era is forcing an OS update. The inflationary times last a long time...expect 10 years. Assets, as in real stuff is where it's at. Cash-flowing businesses, dare I say CARS and other real assets. There is no benefit *financially* to saving cash money. It's being depreciated. Real Estate even at these seemingly nutty prices may seem like a deal in 12 months. Dont expect a deflationary real estate cycle, wont happen. Don't expect foreclosures etc even if the economy goes into a hyper inflation mode, won't happen. The Gov't controls the banks and how they service mortages. As I said before, our OS is outdated. We have always been in the 'no debt, pay off your mortgage' camp, but now it's confusing. If we can borrow at less than 4% and real estate is expected to increase in value/ inflate by 16% (Goldman, Google it) in 2022 a loan is clearly the way to go and keep your cash in play to buy MORE inflating assets. Its hard to accept that we are in a massive price reset, everything is going up and won't ever come back down. However, that appears to be the case. Buy your Ferrari etc now.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/01/12/the-big-short-falls-short-on-explaining-the-housing-collapse/

The Community Reinvestment Act of 1977. If you haven’t heard of it, I wouldn’t be surprised. I wasn’t surprised when nobody mentioned it after the housing market collapsed in 2008, and I wasn’t surprised when few noticed in 2010 when the federal banking executives proposed changes expanding the act. I was surprised, however, when The Big Short, a movie claiming to explain the housing collapse so as to prevent another one, left out not only the CRA but also any responsibility of the federal government, since the act--and the government--is the major cause of the 2008 housing collapse yet still remains a part of the U.S. Code of Laws.

(in short, banks were forced to give 'no doc' loans to persons who had no ability to make good on the paper issued; that has zero comparison to auto loans being issued over msrp, ergo, there is no Federal law mandating that activity, at least not at present)

 

subprime does not equal no-doc, and it was the 30X leverage that did the banks in.

that is an editorial, not a news article.

read carefully. that opinion of the CRA is not held widely.

 

you mean this?

https://www.frbsf.org/community-development/files/cra_lending_during_subprime_meltdown1.pdf

but, don't forget this:

https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2004/08/20040809-9.html

 

wrong forum for politics

moderators please move or delete

 

It's a non-partisan detour, mostly focused on the financial implications, so nothing too egregious. Let's just let it go from here and return to the cars.

All the best,
Andrew.

 

The CRA was the least of the problems from what was going on. Poor lending practices, poor risk management, greed on behalf of all parties (borrowers and lenders), and certainly bank leverage all played a much larger role. When Merrill Lynch did a risk analysis of the tens of billions they held in CDOs (holding various Alt-A/subprime mortgage tranches most heavily exposed to first loss rates) and figured the MOST they could lose was about $80 million, that tells you everything you need to know. The risk models really were programmed that housing would never decline heavily on a national basis.

Not the thread to debate this. And I can talk for hours on why the CRA is one of the most misguided pieces of legislation ever, but the 2008 collapse can't be pinned on it.

 

absolutely correct

 

The CRA codified these things, did it not?

 

No. The overwhelming majority of risky lending took place outside of the GSE's and had nothing to do with CRA.

 

Where do we think the market is headed?


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To the moon!

 

Hahaha


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$350K on a $325 MSRP 2019 488 Spider (White)

2000 miles

Extended warranty B to B until late 2024.

Price is what it is.