One never know how long it will take to evacuate the broken car, clear the track of debris, then possibly repair the guardrail, before thinking about releasing the cars. It can take up to 10 laps. That's why so near the end, and when more than 75% has be run, it make sense to red flag the race and have no restart. The results are then taken 1 lap before the red flag.
OF COURSE no one can predict, with certainty, how long it will take! But you're missing the point ... that's why we have this thing called "expected value" in the science of random variables. When a safety car is deployed, teams must make a decision ... amid uncertainty ... about whether or not to pit. They must make this decision, based on the info available to them at the time. A car crashes with 5.5 laps to go. It's your call, what do you do? QUICK ... no time to waste! Do you: - Not pit, because ... who knows? Maybe this time, the safety car will be out for 12 laps! Hey, it's been known to happen! - Just wait and do nothing, see how the race plays out ... then jump in your "way back" machine, and make the call in the past, with full future knowledge. - Recognize that the expected value of the safety car interval is 4 laps, and act according to this "statistical expectation". You gotta decide!! QUICK! What do you do? (in the past few posts, i haven't even mentioned the agreement, recognized by the stewards, between the Race Director and all teams that the race would end under green, if at all possible ... this might also influence a thinking person's reasoning, about whether or not to "expect" the race to end under green or yellow).
There is also the issue of pit stop during a safety car period to consider. There are times when the pit lane is closed during that period.
Car crashes with 5.5 laps to go. The average value, the "expected value", of a safety car interval in Formula One is 4 laps (meaning, some are shorter than 4 laps ... some are longer than 4 laps ... but the average or "expected" value is 4 laps). You HAVE to bet: do you bet $100 that the race ends under green, or under yellow? You don't get to wait, to see how all the variables ultimately play out. You have to bet, now ... based on what's known to you, now. What's your bet? Is your bet changed, or even influenced, by a pre-race agreement, that the race will end under green, if at all possible?
So you won't even state your expectation? You will sit silent, and wait for the race to end before you make your call? Good thing you're not a team principal in F1 ... they have to make such calls, amid uncertainty, all the time. And this one (car crashes with 5.5 laps to go, expected safety car interval is 4 laps ... do you expect a green or yellow finish, also keeping in mind that pre-race agreement) is pretty darn easy.
All that has nothing to do with what happened at Abu Dhabi, where the race director rewrote the script and realigned the cars by interpreting the rules !
Over the last several posts, the discussion has focused on the expectation of the teams at the time of the crash, and very early in the safety car interval when the decision to pit, or not, is made (not several laps later, toward the end of the safety car period, when the unlapping decision was made). The evidence points to one simple conclusion: at THAT point in time, just after the crash and very early in the safety car interval, the expectation was that the race would finish under green. There are 2 reasons (at least) for this conclusion: the "expected value" of the safety car interval in F1 (4 laps), and the pre-race agreement between the Race Director and all teams. Why does it matter? Simple: any arguments that Mercedes didn't bring Hamilton in for fresh tires, because they expected the race to end under yellow ... are entirely unfounded. (yes, i'm talking about Abu Dhabi 2021).
No one can ever predict that a race can finish under yellow, NO ONE !! What would have happened if Latifi had crashed 4 laps from the end, or even 3 laps ? Do you still think they would have time to have a safety car period and resume under a green flag? No way ! What you refuse to admit is that Masi cut it short by over-riding the established protocol and compressing the logical chain of events. I am not the only one to think that way, and the FIA is examining it closely too, so it's far from being a foregone conclusion as you would have us to believe !
You still don't understand the concept of "expected value" ... and the need to make split-second decisions, before the end of the race is known. The "expected value" (aka average value) of a safety car interval in F1 is 4 laps (according to Mercedes' own F1 webpage). If a car crashes with 3 laps (or less) to go, the race will be expected (at that moment) to end under yellow. If a car crashes with 5 laps (or more) to go, the race will be expected (at that moment) to end under green. Teams must make decisions, accordingly (at that same moment), well before "all the future data is in" (honestly, this concept isn't that hard to comprehend). (Again, i'm talking about decisions that teams had to make early in the safety car interval, not a decision made several laps later by the Race Director) Team principals can't simply "do nothing" ... because they don't know "for sure" what will happen. Team principals can't wait until the end of the race, and then jump in their way-back machines to change the past. At the moment Latifi crashed in Abu Dhabi (with 5.5 laps to go), the expectation was that the race would end under green, not yellow (based on the 4-lap expected safety car interval, and also based on the pre-race agreement). All teams made split-second decisions, in that same moment, based on statistical expectations for what was the highest probability of expected outcome. But i'm done explaining this simple concept, over and over. Take it away ... it's all yours
Do you guys think everyone just forgot all the incidents where Hamilton ran into other drivers when things weren't going well for him? Some of us remember Hamilton's incidents in Canada 11', Belgium 14', USGP 15', Austria 16', Spain 16', Abu Dhabi 16', to name a few, which showed how Hamilton is willing to race his teammates that won't be lapdogs. Hamilton isn't a dirty driver, but he certainly can be reckless under pressure. The dude pretty much ran into the whole field at least once in 11' and 12', and was never in jeopardy of a race ban like others have been. He's gotten the golden boy treatment from the FIA stewards ever since Spa 08', when the stewards felt the wrath of the British press when they gave him a time penalty for cutting the course. After that, the stewards knew to tread lightly when sanctioning Hamilton or the team drives for in any way. I loved Schumi's skills, but I'm not blind to the fact that he was a very dirty driver under pressure, and got away with it because of Ferrari's power at the time in the sport. Anybody that's an honest Ferrari fan knows it, and knows it taints his legacy. It would be nice if there were some Hamilton fans that could be honest and admit that he can be reckless under pressure, and that he gets away with things other drivers don't out on the track. That's why I think Ham fans despise Max (no fan of his driving before this year) so much. He's willing to race Hamilton like the latter does everybody else, and he's not afraid of the British press, or afraid to call out the the stewards special treatment of Hamilton.
I'm sure the stewards had Hamiltons good graces in mind for the Abu Dhabi GP ending. Max has been helped just as much as Hamilton, and with that ending, even moreso.
1. The race would've obviously ended with less than 5 laps remaining, but everyone paying attention knew that 5 laps was just enough time, and that's why Mercedes looked like they had seen a ghost when the incident was seen on TV, and there wasn't tons of debris to remove. 2. Masi indeed did cut the established protocol short, and that's because he had the right to do so under the sporting regs, and that was upheld by a panel of stewards and it's final. You can say it was corrupt, unfair, was robbery, manipulation, you can scream, pout, threaten to never watch again, whatever you like. It won't do anything other than further establish the fragile psychological state of Hamilton and his fans to not be over a defeat (fair or not) already. You guys realize Damon Hill and Alain Prost had their competitors literally crash them out of WDC's, and were over it quickly and without protest, right? Take lessons from them. Geeze. This **** is going to taint Ham's legacy at this point.
One decision. If you didn't see what a love affair the stewards had for Ham and Mercedes after this season, nothing will.
A point of clarification is in order ... I've argued that the average F1 safety car interval is four (4) laps ... this is, in fact, the number quoted by Mercedes on their F1 page ... and, therefore, the expectation would have been a green finish when Latifi crashed with 5~5.5 laps to go. Well, i've done some more research. Different circuits probably have different "expected" (or average) safety car intervals. Indeed ... turns out that the average safety car interval at Abu Dhabi, since 2010, isn't four (4) laps at all ... instead, it's only 3.2 laps at Abu Dhabi No doubt about it, no way to argue differently ... when Latifi crashed, all teams made the decision to pit, or not, based on the full expectation that the race would end under green, not yellow.
Easily solved by not pitting when there's a red light on. And the same would've been for anyone behind, so no time lost.
Buddies, I don’t even know why you get tired of trying to argue with people whose only concern is not reality but the fact that Hamilton did not win an eighth title. It’s their only problem, believe me!
It didn't matter what circumstances Hamilton lost, his most devoted fans were always going to be terrible sports. FFS, they've concocted vast conspiracies at the FIA for McLaren to throw the WDC to Kimi in 2007. Then there are conspiracies that Mercedes were giving him bad engines to try and sabotage his WDC run in 2016. Insane, ******* crazy stuff that would embarrass most drivers, but not Hamilton. Hell, Ham has even entertained those conspiracies at times, as well some British motorsports pundits who should damn well know better. 10 years from now people won't see Max's title with some 'asterisk next to it', they'll see how poor a sport Hamilton, Mercedes, his fan base, and the entire British press were.
I forgot about the Mclaren conspiracy! According to them, Mclaren took a loss or they would be kicked out of the championship They took 2021 new aero regs as sabotage and hand Max the title as well, and ran with it for a significant portion of the season. Only at the very end they found a new target to fixate on...
I bet you took longer than 5 seconds to think about it and didnt have two screaming brats in your ear, but nevertheless you have got the job, job applications to the FIA. Tony PS its was supposed to be a satirical question in the first place!
McLaren should've been barred from the final races of 2007. BAR got kicked out of two races for an illegal fuel cell, but McLaren were allowed to continue to compete for the drivers championship (the one the teams care about most), despite having defrauded Ferrari and lying to the FIA about it. But then, that would've ruined the suspense of the title fight obviously.
