812 Market Dynamics

I have a 2019 with 2000 miles Nero DS1250 that was $434 MSRP that I ordered new. I think it would take $470 for me to sell it. My dealer asked if I wanted to sell it but I know he's going to want a pound of flesh in commission.

 

well the dealers are pricing them 420-480k so yeah you're not wrong in asking 470

 

In the UK the best F12b seem to be creeping back towards GBP 200k whilst I was offered a low mileage, one owner, Blu Pozzi 812 SF for GBP 220k.
This is of course not a scientific survey result and the 812 had an 'interesting' interior colour scheme. Basically a sky blue stripe through the seats and dash together with sky blue Daytona inserts. This may have accounted for the discount?

 

Probably, that sounds like an awful spec.

 

It put me off for sure

 

It’s amazing. Who would have thought 380k with red interior and 20k miles.

Red interior is polarizing as is blue in some markets and 20k miles. Kudos to the owner.


Are people buying or sitting it out ? That said the msrp for GTS is averaging more than 100k higher and that’s without the markup.


Honestly I loved my F12. Until I drove the 812. Couldn’t go back now ( unless TDF- buts that’s not back).


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Link to that car please.

 

Was with Tom Hartley Junior. No longer showing as stock, nor as recently sold.
Car was ex Anthony Bamford (multiple GTO owner)

 

It’s not just 812s, it’s everything. The cars aren’t worth more, the dollar is worth less.
(glad I got mine a year ago)

 

They turned in a hurry. I got my 2020 812 new in August 2020. My friends here in Atlanta laughed for a couple months, until all the sudden the prices did a big U-turn in our favor. And from what I’m hearing, they aren’t going anywhere but up with this being the last real 12 model, and mine is pre-GPF.

 

For sale at Ferrari of central Florida?


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Yes. GTS on the boat.

 

Your post has been edited removing the political talk. That doesn't belong in the general forums.

 

Not if you compare the exchange rates to Euro and GBP, the dollar is stronger than in past few years...

"supply side" inflation is not the result of currency dilution...

 

Quite odd, 365K for a 2018 with 6132 miles...but a clean carfax when all other 2018s are well into the 400s....could they know something we don't about that particular car?

 

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That one is 410 with apparently an accident


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Comparing relative valuation of the fiat currencies of governments that move nearly in lockstep policy-wise isn’t going to tell you anything about inflation. It’s not like there is a sudden massive shortage of used cars, there’s the same amount of used cars as there always has been. There are fewer new cars available, but has that been enough to drive the price of used cars up 20%+ in the last year? Too much liquid money searching for the same pool of tangible goods. That’s what happens when you destroy the economy with lockdowns while running the printing press on full blast. Welcome to super inflation, hope it gets better.

 

Actually…there is a massive shortage of used cars. Rental car companies have been buying up used cars to offset their inability to access new cars. They need cars to rent, and acquiring used cars is their only option.

 

That might explain base model fleet cars but not anything higher grade than a V6 Mustang. It is exactly what I said.

 

That part of post is plainly wrong. There’s far less used cars than can meet the present demand. The root causes are plentiful. Rental car fleets are buying up used cars at an unprecedented pace. The auto makes would rather sell cars to retail customers, leaving the rental car companies with no other option than to buy used cars for way too much money.

 

My dude, the value of all used cars is +20% or more over the last year. No one is renting BMW M5s or E450s or ZL1s or etc etc etc and get their value has gone up the same as everything else. Your argument of “rental company competition” plainly does not hold water. The problem is systemic in nature with inflated money supply chasing a static pool of tangible goods, devaluing the purchasing power of the money. This is Econ 101.

 

The "Econ 101" is true when you look at supply vs demand and demand is higher than supply (for cars and many other items).

But, "static pool of tangible goods" is unapparent:

For cars, the lockdowns are still occurring where the most chips are made, hence these headlines:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/04/fords-first-quarter-sales-fall-17percent-as-automaker-battles-chip-shortage.html

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/mercedes-loses-premium-sales-crown-bmw-chip-shortage-hits-deliveries

https://www.theverge.com/2022/1/4/22867285/gm-toyota-us-top-selling-automaker-chip-shortage

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2022/04/01/gm-general-motors-toyota-sales/7228752001/

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/stellantis-italy-production-fall-fifth-year-due-chip-shortages-union-says

and now with Ukraine production mostly offline, even more shortages

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2022/04/07/10752161/chip-shortage-could-worsen-amid-russia-ukraine-war-creating-further-headwinds-for-us-auto-sales/

https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-ukraine-halts-half-worlds-neon-output-chips-clouding-outlook-2022-03-11/

https://europe.autonews.com/suppliers/ukraine-parts-shortages-put-15-european-auto-output-risk-analyst-says

https://www.motorbiscuit.com/ukraine-crisis-cause-problems-car-sales/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2022/03/20/rosy-european-auto-sales-scenarios-ditched-after-russiaukraine-shock/

looks like 'money supply', at best, is a minor influence...

 

Literally none of this affects the supply of the used car market except by some buyers shifting to used from new. There is a run on tangible goods going on across all markets and asset classes. Look at the massive spike in M2 money supply. This is not rocket science. Since apparently people want to argue with what seems like an obvious conclusion, we can just go back to marveling at the rapid appreciation of these fantastic vehicles

 

Agree our multi-trillion dollar super-juiced economy certainly factors into all this....

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Well, here's how it appears the supply of used cars...

When a person goes to purchase a new car, quite often, they trade in a used car.

When there is not a suitable new car available (i.e. due to production shortages previously identified), that means the person is "trading in a used car to buy a used car since no new car is available" resulting in a net zero "gain" in used cars.

Now, that would not seem to be a problem, and you would be correct.

However, if a "new car purchaser" who is not trading in a used car attempts to buy a new car but none are available (again, production shortages) that person instead buys a used car. Turns out there is a significant number of such persons...

In summary, it is exactly due to the significant lack of suitable new cars that is causing a deficit in used car availability.

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now, if you would want to change focus from the overall car market to just exotics, you have a very different situation unfolding...

namely, EVs/hybrids are becoming the only "new car option" and for a sizable audience of exotic car purchasers, such cars are not suitable and leaving those persons to go shopping in the 'back catalog' of cars, and, in many cases because those persons were looking to acquire a new exotic car they want the most recent and maybe best examples of those pre-ev/pre-hybrid...hence the spike in prices of such cars

now, as time goes forwards this will persist especially as more and more "new exotic car purchasers" become aware of this situation and also aware they do not want an ev/hybrid...where will they go...to the back catalog

and, to get really specific, if you want an 812SF (coupe) fewer than 1,100 were made for the USA, and currently there is no replacement, you cannot order a new V12 at all from Ferrari (regular production), and if, as rumored, a new V12 (coupe) becomes available it could be 3+ years before it can be ordered, maybe 4 years...

Remember, for the 812SF coupe(not GTS), order book was closed about 2 years ago...so that plus waiting another 3 or 4 years to order is something that has never occurred Ferrari's history, no V12 (coupe) can be ordered for at least 5 years...maybe more, since there is no "new" car to order, only used/pre-owned cars can be purchased, and many current owners have no interest in selling since there is no replacement, so the current availability is about 5% production (for USA) and prices are stabling around msrp...(again, not referring to 812GTS at all)

If the presumed eventual replacement is hybrid (rumored to be and not to be...and with current chairman and CEO could easily become hybrid especially as it is further delayed and new EU regulations come into force), then there will be even more 'pressure' on the back catalog as ev/hybrid is not suitable for all which would further increase the asking prices of 812SF coupes in the USA