Whom will win the Aus Election? | Page 17 | FerrariChat

Whom will win the Aus Election?

Discussion in 'Australia' started by Steve355F1, Apr 18, 2022.

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?

Whom will win the Aus Election?

  1. Coalition

    7 vote(s)
    38.9%

  2. Labor / Greens / Fake Independents

    2 vote(s)
    11.1%

  3. Moretti

    9 vote(s)
    50.0%
Multiple votes are allowed.
Page 17 of 26
  1. knocker

    knocker F1 World Champ
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    #401 knocker, May 26, 2022
    Post of the year so far for me, very well said.
     
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  2. kerrari

    kerrari Two Time F1 World Champ
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    #402 kerrari, May 26, 2022
    It’s simple maths, not opinion - last time, only 59 seats had any chance to vote ON, this time 149 seats had the option - clearly few were interested.
     
  3. kerrari

    kerrari Two Time F1 World Champ
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    #403 kerrari, May 26, 2022
    Too many people will be embarrassed... interestingly, LNP is much more dependent on donations than ALP because ALP has a guaranteed income stream from the Unions; also Qld ALP benefited from someone in the 50s who set them up with a pretty impressive real estate portfolio which is guaranteed income (I don’t know if the other states are similarly well off).
     
  4. Steve355F1

    Steve355F1 F1 World Champ
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    #404 Steve355F1, May 26, 2022
    4.85% of Australians is not really “few” being interested.
    Add on the 4.09% of UAP and 1.68% Lib Dems and you’re talking about the same numbers as voted Green.

    Which proves my point that the conservative vote has scattered. Those 10+% of voters should be voting Liberal, and then these minor parties wouldn’t exist.
     
  5. kerrari

    kerrari Two Time F1 World Champ
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    #405 kerrari, May 26, 2022
    Interesting point but of course you also forget that the “Liberal” party is actually a coalition of 4 parties (Lib, QLD LNP, National Party and Country Nationals). When you go to the full breakdown of party votes:
    https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-27966-NAT.htm

    You would realise that the National share of the vote is therefore around the same as UAP (4.08/4.09) not mention Greens is about equal to actual Libs (11.73 / 11.31). All of Lib coalition plus ON and UAP comes to 33% while ALP as a standalone party is on 32.77%.
    You are quite correct that the conservative vote has fractured but instead of proclaiming the breakaways “should” :rolleyes: be voting Liberal, perhaps have a long cool think about why they are NOT.
     
  6. Steve355F1

    Steve355F1 F1 World Champ
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    #406 Steve355F1, May 26, 2022
    I'm looking at exactly the same numbers you are, but somehow we appear to be seeing different things.

    You say that "Greens is about equal to actual Libs", yet the numbers show the Liberal Party getting 24.06% of the primary vote - more than double the Greens 11.73%.
    If you then add the LNP, Nationals, and the CLP (which make up the official Coalition) you get 36.16%, yet you say that "all of the Lib coalition plus ON and UAP comes to 33%". How do you work that out?

    That 36.16% of primary votes to the Coalition is also higher than Labor's primary vote of 32.76%, by the way.

    If you actually add ON, UAP, and the Lib Dems to the Coalition vote you get 46.78%, not the 33% you claim.

    And 46.78% is higher than Labor + Greens (the unofficial coalition) at 44.49%.

    I've already said why I think the conservative vote has fractured, and I believe the numbers and history agree with me.
     
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  7. moretti

    moretti Five Time F1 World Champ
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    #407 moretti, May 27, 2022
    Whom won ?

    Asking for my dead parents that voted for Labor :p
     
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  8. kerrari

    kerrari Two Time F1 World Champ
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    #408 kerrari, May 27, 2022
    Yep, primary vote of the 4 PARTIES that combine to count as Liberal have primary higher vote than single Labor party, but we have preferential voting in Aus and the 2 part preferred single ALP vote won the day. I don’t attribute Lib Dems to either side. If we had single party highest vote it would be no contest - ALP 32.77% Lib 24.07% .
     
  9. Steve355F1

    Steve355F1 F1 World Champ
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    #409 Steve355F1, May 27, 2022
    Karen, you're being more than a little disingenuous with that post.

    Trying to pretend that there's something in the fact that 4 parties make up the Coalition is, well, so what?

    If I lived in QLD could I vote for the Liberal Party? No. I have to vote for the LNP.
    What about in the NT? No, I have to vote for the CLP. And so on.
    At least the Coalition is honest enough to be a genuine, up front coalition.
    Not like Labor, The Greens, and the fake independents, who pretend that they're not a coalition when we all know that they are.

    That is dishonest.

    Can I assume that given you haven't disputed my numbers that you admit you were wrong in your previous post, and that my figures are indeed correct?
     
  10. kerrari

    kerrari Two Time F1 World Champ
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    #410 kerrari, May 27, 2022
    No - there is no coalition between ALP and Greens (or anyone else) as there is between the Liberal coalition parties; they maybe on similar pages philosophically but that is WAAAY different from a coalition.
    My assessment was not on primary vote but apportioned by seats won (Lib total: 59 so Libs (28 seats = 47% ) LNP (21 seats=36%), NAT (10 seats = 17%) across the total “Liberal” vote.
     
  11. Steve355F1

    Steve355F1 F1 World Champ
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    #411 Steve355F1, May 27, 2022
    Is that Albonomics? No wonder it makes no sense.
     
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  12. Arvin Grajau

    Arvin Grajau Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    #412 Arvin Grajau, May 27, 2022
    Last edited: May 27, 2022
    In summary :

    The Teal woman supported by Getup ARE Labor . People were conned into thinking they were independant ..Why are people so dumb!
    In my area all I witnessed was bitter old woman handing out voting cards for Ryan and wanting to argue with anyone whom came along and than went back to there ****hole homes/units and turned on the gas heater ,might I note driving home in some OHOS spewing fumes..
    Same....bitter old woman who go to the Getup organized demo's ,nothing else to do in there lives , hubby and kids ran years before .
    Ryan ex ALP member
    Steggall when did she vote LAW with the out going Government?
    Daniels ex ABC Journo .
    So for the next 3 years there vote will mean JACK due to the ALP lower house majority ...
    Just over 30% voted for the ALP before preferences .
    The Green muppets hold the balance of power in the Senate , welcome to 3 years of CONFLICT .
    Thank Christ none of us on here voted for these muppets?
    Look forward to big spending and more taxes..
     
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  13. moretti

    moretti Five Time F1 World Champ
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    #413 moretti, May 27, 2022
    Change your channel, Paul Murray is just a fat CLINT
     
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  14. Ferraridoc

    Ferraridoc F1 World Champ
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    #414 Ferraridoc, May 27, 2022
    So bitter
     
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  15. moretti

    moretti Five Time F1 World Champ
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    #415 moretti, May 27, 2022
    That's what I said didn't I ?

    He's a bitter mysogonist
     
  16. Ferraridoc

    Ferraridoc F1 World Champ
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    #416 Ferraridoc, May 27, 2022
    Based on?
     
  17. kerrari

    kerrari Two Time F1 World Champ
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    #417 kerrari, May 27, 2022
    No sense to you - clearly Albo DOES understand how electoral maths work (hint: raw percentages don’t relate directly to number of seats won).
     
  18. moretti

    moretti Five Time F1 World Champ
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    #418 moretti, May 27, 2022
    Don't you watch Fox ?

    He blamed the loss on women
     
  19. Ferraridoc

    Ferraridoc F1 World Champ
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    #419 Ferraridoc, May 27, 2022
    But, you blame EVERYTHING on women!
     
  20. 365GTC/4

    365GTC/4 Formula 3

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    #420 365GTC/4, May 27, 2022
    Isn't everything a woman's fault?
     
  21. Steve355F1

    Steve355F1 F1 World Champ
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    #421 Steve355F1, May 27, 2022
    Luck you're an architect as maths is clearly not your strong point.

    Here's what you said, in case you forgot. And every statement you made below is patently incorrect, no matter how you try to spin it now.
    If you think this makes sense and is accurate then I think I'll give up.

     
  22. moretti

    moretti Five Time F1 World Champ
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    #422 moretti, May 27, 2022
    It's their fault for kids
     
  23. Its328

    Its328 F1 Rookie

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    #423 Its328, May 28, 2022
    The good thing about being a woman would be having sex when ever you wanted, doesn't work with a guy.
    The monthly thing would be a drag though :p
     
  24. Its328

    Its328 F1 Rookie

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    #424 Its328, May 28, 2022
    I want to come back as a Barramundi and change sex in maturity.
     
  25. 365GTC/4

    365GTC/4 Formula 3

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    #425 365GTC/4, May 28, 2022
    I'm not sure if there are any, but this is for any hetero guys on here. How to understand women.

     
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