the F40 is undervalued

So, after reading the recent threads, I decided to look at a few emails I have received from the so called experts and brokers who frequently post on this site..
This is going back 4 years... it just makes you laugh how wrong these so called experts are... As I have alway said.. buy what you like and buy the best and enjoy.. the rest is in the rear view mirror...

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Well that is a pretty straight response and I tend to believe him. I actually think these prices being discussed are stupid and are showing dangerous signs. There are so many uneducated buyers making mistakes and buying purely based on the press surrounding classic cars.

All your cars owe you very well indeed so you have not a worry in the world but they guys paying £1m for F40's will soon get a shock. We have to remember that a lot of cars are fashion, market and fx related. US auctions have set the standard for prices but with Sterling making huge gains in recent months I think we will see many no sale at Pebble Beach this year.

The momentum cannot continue and property will return to being a wiser and safer place for your money. You can at least rent the bloody thing out!!

Who told you that XXXXX £1m for their car?
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The above is from 4 years ago... Clueless are these people

 

They 100 % got a shock when they can now sell them for 3.5 million... in 5 years these will be 5 million and the same will be written.

 

To be fair, 4 years ago, no one knew COVID was coming, along with the trillions of new dollars appearing out of thin air.

That said, fortune favours the bold.

 

That’s true, but no one not even so called professional’s can either.. the printing started in 2009.. so Covid in my view made no difference.. it’s only been certain cars that have increased most have stayed flat or moved down.. most pre 1970 Ferrari’s

 

It’s understanding the market which is the art.

 

People told me to buy at 700 before they went to 400… At 400 they told me to sell and then they told me to sell again at 1.2

 

Now the added increasing upward pressure of all the "calls" for no more, definitely affected current and future production, classics will continue to feel upward pressure as there will be nothing to look forward too...
https://ww2.motorists.org/blog/there-will-be-no-cars-elimination-of-personal-cars/

 

Nobody can predict where speculation could move prices for classic cars - but pretending to provide rational analysis is pointless IMHO.
Horse carriages are long gone and - except for maybe very specific cases I'm not aware of, since like most people I do not care - nobody is paying millions to add them to private collections.
Regarding the F40, I still cannot understand why people pay the price of three 365 GTB/4 to get one F40 (although I understand most people would not want to have three different 365 GTB/4).

 

The horseless and horse carriage example is an irrelevant one but thanks for trying to make it

 

Agreed, either that or a new thread, let me think...

This clearly is one of the reasons F40 values have increased, but we should also remember that a rising tide raises all ships so values of 288 GTOs, F50s, Enzos etc and many more makes & models besides have increased as well, not just F40s, for example F50s have done better.

Certainly not me, but pray tell, just who are all these experts and brokers who frequently post on this site? Those notes don't sound like anyone who posts here regularly.

And I was right, in fact for the next year there weren't any significant changes in the F40's values https://www.classic.com/m/ferrari/f40?page=2

You can hide your head in the sand and have your view all you like, but the indisputable fact remains that it is universally accepted that the trillions of new dollars supplied into the hands of the already affluent over the covid period has increased prices of Ferrari Supercars and so many other collectibles besides. We have had half-a-dozen clients start entire Ferrari Supercar collections since Covid, and they've openly shared that Covid was the reason it was at all possible.

Good points, they made @ 1,311 F40s which is quite significant and similar to Ferrari Daytona production numbers, and whilst F40s'll probably be worth more than Daytonas because of their Supercar status, I can see them being worth just 2x a Daytona again at some point, the production numbers are the clue why that's possible, having followed the classic & supercar market for 35 years, I know nothing's impossible.

 

No head in the Sand over here in the UK, thats more of a Californian pass time, with all those beautiful beaches.. The smart and educated money bought from 2008 when QE started.. Covid might have in your view pushed it further but the train went a long time ago.

 

Because 365bb are top heavy, very heavy, not a supercar, and other things besides. If they were top collector items for Ferrari guys they would be $2m but there are reasons they are not. Great cars tho.

 

Joe, how can you even compare a Daytona and an F40 to derive a possible value trend? The F40 is vastly more significant than most any modern post 60’ Ferraris. There’s probably 250 cars max in the USA.

Now we’re talking Daytonas and 365BBs? What? Somethings very wrong here with this discussion values aside.I can tell you next generation could care less about these two as absolute fact.

You all seem to be trying to push F40 prices down concertedly. I thought auction cars were sketchy and not indicative of overall market health? Now all of a sudden they are a whisper from god. On the way up that’s what was said, on the way down same thing.

And I am not an advocate of pure value threads BTW but the F40 was always the lagging supercar for no reason. So it was undervalued……

 

The Daytona and muscle car scene was fueled by boomers having the spare cash to buy what they always wanted when they were younger and poorer. Those guys are settling into retirement now, that market is slowly dwindling.

It is the turn of 80s stuff currently, as that generation are in their fifties with spare money to burn.

The same trend as above will catch up with such nostalgia items, but it will be another 10 years yet.

The F40 has not got better with age, it is still the same car that was trading for £100k at one point.

However the F40 is the one car to transcend into later generations, it is very much the GOAT for the upcoming wealthy car buyers who were not even born when it hit the roads.

I keep an eye on what these guys and gals aspire to, the F40 is nearly always the top of the list, no mention ever of 288/F50/Enzo/La Ferrari.

 

I missed this jewel of a prediction, I respectfully nominate you President Emeritus of the TTFMUC (Talk The F40 Market Up Club).

Pastime Paul, meanwhile we'll make do with the beaches.

True and as I said in fairness just a few posts ago, F40s will probably (always) be worth more than Daytona's because of their Supercar status.

I think it's worth pointing out here, again, that my personal feeling about the F40 market is that it's always exactly where it needs to be, it's not undervalued, and it's not overvalued, the latter an important point to also be made. For the record I'm not pessimistic about the future values of F40s, nor am I unreasonably optimistic based on any bias, agenda or crystal-balling.

I think it’s important to be impartial in any marketplace and here’s why - I've already lost a few F40 sales (I ended up selling them classic Lamborghinis, Miura & Countach instead) to the question they posed: “why is everyone trying to talk up F40 values so much?” Moral of the story, if you blatantly put out public commentary talking any market up, such as this thread was started to do, that action can have the reverse effect of diminishing returns as it makes a certain increasingly thoughtful sector of the marketplace become skeptical, as we are seeing, and therefore they decide to buy something else that doesn’t seem so hyped-up. Make sense?

No Vice President, just raw published data from public sales.

Meanwhile, next up!

The California-based Eu F40 ZFFGJ34B000089121 with 45,400 kilometers (28,210 miles) https://rmsothebys.com/en/auctions/am23/amelia-island/lots/r0035-1991-ferrari-f40/1326337

Now here is an F40 we can actually use, so I hope it does well for that reason.

Then, there's USA F40 ZFFMN34A0L0086620 with 1,236 miles
https://www.goodingco.com/lot/1990-ferrari-f40-1a/

Although he wasn’t the 1st owner, Bill Cosby is the car’s longest owner as he owned it for 20 years from 1992 to 2012 but this isn't mentioned in the auction writeup, that said it's already been suggested here a few posts ago by the President that ownership provenance should not affect value achieved one way or the other.

 

I must say President has a nice ring to it, let’s look again in 5 years to see if I’m re elected

 

Pleasure Paul, enjoy the weekend.

A more complete up-to-date picture.

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This is good raw data.

 

The graph I posted is classic.com's graph from their banner page which does contain all the price differentials, if I had included the link so you actually click on the page and expand it https://www.classic.com/m/ferrari/f40/ you'd see nothing is camouflaged, average sale $2.2m, sales count 38, dollar volume $82.3m, lowest sale $1.0m, top sale $5.5m (Ferrari factory F40 LM not a street F40), most recent $2.4m.

Not only is their data more comprehensive than the incomplete k500 graph you used, but the illustrated trajectory of classic.com's graph over the data period is more realistic than the compressed k500 graph which gives a exaggerated illusion of value increase and which you posted purely for the dedicated agenda of talking up the market - which, again, in practice creates a negative effect amongst potential buyers. I posted classic.com's graph to give people a realistic snapshot of how values have progressed by showing the real value trajectory over the past 5 years from 2018 to 2023, wherein which you'll note there was a period from early 2019 to mid 2021 when the average sale value actually decreased.

 

JIAHTHTLWS