The Dark side of EVs starts to be revealed (but don't tell anybody...) | Page 2 | FerrariChat

The Dark side of EVs starts to be revealed (but don't tell anybody...)

Discussion in 'Technology' started by bitzman, Feb 12, 2023.

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  1. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,242
    Austin TX
    #26 JTSE30, Mar 17, 2023
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2023
  2. Nurburgringer

    Nurburgringer F1 World Champ

    Jan 3, 2009
    11,031
    Texass
    #27 Nurburgringer, Mar 18, 2023
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2023
    You're actually still blaming the disastrous TX blackout of 2021 on renewables?!
    That SNAFU has been unequivocally proven to be a direct result of natural gas companies unwittingly shutting off the supply to pipeline compression and power generating stations because they weren't on a "critical" list.
    Plus, virtually nothing was done to winterize nat gas infrastructure even though similar freezes had happened before (2011 I believe?).
    https://www.texastribune.org/2021/03/18/texas-winter-storm-blackouts-paperwork/

    “In my opinion, if we had kept the supply [of natural gas] on, we would’ve had minor disruptions,” James Cisarik, chairman of the Texas Energy Reliability Council, told legislators. “[Texas] has all the assets, we just have to make sure we evaluate every link in that chain to keep it going.”

    The failures were years in the making: There is no requirement for natural gas and other companies that operate crucial parts of the grid to register as “critical.” And a trend toward electrifying key components of the state’s natural gas infrastructure in recent decades, plus the lack of a single agency to oversee all parts of the electric delivery system, created what Kenneth Medlock, a fellow in energy and resource economics at the Rice University’s Baker Institute, called a “single point of failure” — one that state regulators were blind to.

    “That’s a failure of regulation,” said Medlock, who is also the senior director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice. “That's all it is. It's relatively simple.”


    Drop in wind power at the storm's peak was ~10% of the loss in thermal i.e. natural gas fired generation:
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    Bottom line is that EVs or no EVs we absolutely need to strengthen the country's power grid AND be smarter about how we use electricity.
     
    peterp likes this.
  3. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,242
    Austin TX

    Yes, I am, indirectly, because had the focus been on creating new, stable power generation rather than building up to nearly 30% of capacity using unreliable, intermittent sources (i.e. wind and solar) along with sufficient natural gas distribution (i.e. pipelines) we would of never had any any blackouts in 2011 or 2021.

    So, indirectly, the over reliance on "boutique" power generation (i.e. 'useless' because it is not stable, reliable, cannot be predicted due to being intermittent) rather than building out capacity using predictable and reliable sources, has resulted in this mess.

    Yes, gas supplies were a problem, but not why you think (see below), private customers were favored due to insufficient capacity flows, this resulted in shutting down of gas fired plants which lead to further distribution problems due to lack of power to move gas through the system, creating a cascading effect.

    And most of the coal-fired plants that had issues in 2021 were newer constructions and more related to all the new technology being used regarding plant emissions that is not sorted out yet.

    Again, had the money been spent building (mostly) wind power was instead used for building out more reliable, predictable generation we would be in a much better place.

    Thankfully that is happening:
    https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50436

    background on blackouts and current power generation:

    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/05/texas-gov-knew-of-natural-gas-shortages-days-before-blackout-blamed-wind-anyway/

    https://www.texastribune.org/2011/02/03/the-rolling-chain-of-events-behind-texas-blackouts/

    https://comptroller.texas.gov/economy/fiscal-notes/2022/sep/energy.php

    ERCOT’s breakdown of energy use by fuel source in 2021 consisted of 61 percent fossil fuel sources, 28 percent wind and solar sources and the remainder from a combination of other sources
     
  4. Nurburgringer

    Nurburgringer F1 World Champ

    Jan 3, 2009
    11,031
    Texass
    no offense but that's a load of horse ****.
    TX had and has plenty of "reliable, predictable" nat gas power generation to avoid the type of widespread, days-long blackouts we had 2011 and 2021 it was just grossly mismanaged.

    "private customers were favored due to insufficient capacity flows"
    yeah insufficient capacity flows because gas suppliers hadn't filled out a form to classify themselves as "critical", so they were shut down and ~26GWe of gas turbine generators got no fuel.
    Plus, some wells froze because their owners favored a few extra bucks profit over basic winterization measures (anti-icing for combustion inlet filters, heat tracing, etc).

    And THEN during the crisis the PUTC had the balls to gouge customers with outrageous power bills.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/texas-power-court-prices-idAFL1N35P32Z
     
    peterp likes this.
  5. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,242
    Austin TX
    So, in summary, we agree that at least 40% of the population has no consistent ability to charge an EV overnight and never will. Thus, EVs are a non-starter for those same persons (without mentioning any of the other problems with EVs).
     
  6. Nurburgringer

    Nurburgringer F1 World Champ

    Jan 3, 2009
    11,031
    Texass
    Well we don't agree on the numbers, but I would like to find common ground so if you say ~60% of the population can right now charge at home that's ~9M out of 15M cars currently sold annually which should be EVs, agree? :)


    BTW despite my enthusiams for renewables I do still support TX oil and gas ;)
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    and hey even though Houston is cloudy today we're still on pace to exceed 50% of power demand from wind and solar!
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  7. Innovativethinker

    Innovativethinker F1 Veteran
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    Aug 8, 2009
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    Mark Smith
    i thought the Tesla home chargers require 50 amp service?

    https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/en_CA/CA-EN_NEMA_14-50_Installation_Guide.pdf
     
  8. Nurburgringer

    Nurburgringer F1 World Champ

    Jan 3, 2009
    11,031
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    per the specs that's a 32A charger, so 50A breaker is recommended.
    Faster charging than my 24A charger, which I ran to a 40A breaker.
    Appropriate charger power depends on how fast you need to charge, and how big a battery you have. Long range Model 3 has about twice the battery capacity as my i3, which we only charge overnight 1-2 times per week.
     
  9. JTSE30

    JTSE30 F1 Rookie

    Oct 1, 2004
    3,242
    Austin TX
    actually, I prefer market forces not government mandates regarding number of EVs produced (fortunately government mandates cannot force purchase)

    if the market wants EVs, the market can have EVs

    if the market wants non-EVs, the market can have non-EVs

    "room for both" you might say, with the result being the consumer has choice, as they should in my opinion, let the consumer "vote" with their money (additionally meaning no government rebates for buying an EV)
     
  10. Nurburgringer

    Nurburgringer F1 World Champ

    Jan 3, 2009
    11,031
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    Of course, "market forces", like some magical fantasy land where oil and gas and coal receive no government subsidies and the TRUE cost of fossil fuels is passed on to consumers?
    You REALLY want that?
     
  11. Nurburgringer

    Nurburgringer F1 World Champ

    Jan 3, 2009
    11,031
    Texass
    https://insideevs.com/news/658068/ev-prices-coming-close-to-gas-cars/

    "To date, most EVs have used batteries based on chemistries that use nickel and cobalt, which are not only expensive, but also come from regions with poor environmental and human rights records. However, for some time, Chinese automakers have been using a different battery chemistry—lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP), which uses no nickel or cobalt. Tesla began offering LFP-based battery packs in 2021, and now VW, Ford and other automakers are expanding their use of LFP chemistries.

    Ryan Castilloux, Managing Director at Adamas Intelligence, told the WSJ that iron-based batteries now account for almost a third of all EV batteries produced worldwide, and he expects that share to grow. Nickel-based chemistries, which offer better energy density, will continue to be preferred for some vehicle segments, but LFP, which is cheaper and more durable, is likely to become the technology of choice for lower-priced mass-market EVs."
     
  12. peterp

    peterp F1 Veteran

    Aug 31, 2002
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    Let's not forget that they also chose to isolate themselves from the national grid, which made it impossible to be helped by the national grid. Shoot yourself in the foot every way from Sunday, then blame it on wind.
     
    Nurburgringer likes this.
  13. Whisky

    Whisky Two Time F1 World Champ
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    The original Fernando
    It wasn't like that in 199x, so it doesn't count.

    I just truly cannot even imagine one or two people living in
    something larger than 5,000 sq feet, hell I'm single and am
    in 2,500 sq foot and I'm dwarfed... I have rooms I have not
    been in for months.
     
    Bas likes this.
  14. Whisky

    Whisky Two Time F1 World Champ
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    The original Fernando
    I have been on here saying for the last 5+ years there is no infrastructure to support
    even 20% EV charging.
    There are entire areas, neighborhoods, that are not wired for more than a small
    handful of 220v users.
     
    Rifledriver and Bas like this.
  15. Whisky

    Whisky Two Time F1 World Champ
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    The original Fernando
    I thought hydrogen was the next big thing?
     
  16. Whisky

    Whisky Two Time F1 World Champ
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    The original Fernando
    NOW we know where all those stolen catalytic converters are going!!!
     
  17. stretchgeneral

    stretchgeneral Formula 3
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    Brutal Facts:

    We need more mines for the minerals as noted above. Mines take 15-20 years to permit and develop. There will not be enough to meet the projected demand.

    We need more power distribution grid to handle the additional demand. Nobody is offering to pay the grid development companies to expand their grids.

    Most of the electricity that powers EVs comes from fossil fuels not renewable energy. The benefit is not as pure as advertised.

    The growth in EVs projected also create a tremendous demand for aluminum and steel. Current capacity is not enough and both are dirty industrial processes.

    Depending on how you calculate it, 200 million people in the USA live in single family homes, that is about 60% of the population. Really only folks in single family homes can charge every night. The 40% that live in multi-family homes, or that park on a street are out of luck. Yea, I know, apartments and work parking lots provide the token amount of charging stations, but.........

    EVs are a fire risk, not yet resolved by the authorities having jurisdictions (building code enforcement etc.) across the country. When they burn, it must be contained and is tough to extinguish. Water from sprinkler heads will not be a benefit. All parking garages by code must be sprinkled. But once the code folks catch up, they may bane EVs from parking in parking garages, or require specific areas with alternative fire suppression for them.

    All EVs by 2030 will not happen.
     
  18. Nospinzone

    Nospinzone F1 Veteran

    Jul 1, 2013
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    Paul
    Excellent post! I didn’t know much about where raw materials for batteries would come from. And I never even considered the fire problem, but that is so right. I’ve seen videos of Tesla fires and they are vicious.

    I will say your estimate that only 60% of single family homes can charge their EV is too high. My single family home is not easily adaptable. It would be very expensive and I’d have to have an ugly charging pillar in my front yard. I don’t think I could charge at home, and the fact that I’m retired and can’t charge at work, creates a problem.

    The only place you are wrong is saying fossil fuels will be needed create the vast amounts of electricity required. The easy solution will be for us to build 100 to 500 nuclear power stations. I know I don’t mind a nuclear reactor in my backyard, and I’m sure everyone here will also welcome one in their neighborhood. Certainly California, which is already experiencing brownouts, will spearhead the construction more nuclear power stations. :rolleyes:

    But just in case this scenario all goes to hell, I’m keeping my two V12 Ferraris! :D
     

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