Is the watch Market imploding?

I find Chrono24 asking prices to be somewhat out of touch with reality

 

Is there a more accurate source that is easily searchable?

 

https://watchcharts.com

 

a black ceramic daytona for $23K.. if it hits sub $20K I might seriously have to think about it.

 

Or you can build a relationship with your AD and wait a while and pay $14,550

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What does build a relationship even mean? Buy undesirable watches you don't want? Only models I want are Daytona or Pepsi..

 

Depends on the AD to be honest - In 1995 I ordered and bought a SS (but quite custom) Datejust with a WG bezel - I didn't buy it to build a relationship - I just bought it because that was what I could afford. Then many years later I "got on the list" for a 116520 WD Daytona and waited a LONG TIME to finally obtain it - then many years later I "got on the list" for a Batman and got it much quicker. So perhaps that was all relationship building - But frankly I think if I walked in cold to the same AD today and simply struck up a conversation and perhaps bought a Tag or a Tudor but clearly stated I wanted a new Daytona I would "be on the list" but perhaps not as "high" on the list as an established customer.

It all comes down (and always has) to paying more and not waiting and perhaps not being the "first owner" versus waiting and paying less and being the "first owner" - No different than Ferrari's ironically enough.

To your post/point - if SS/Ceramic Daytona's drop under $20K and you can obtain one now versus many years later and enjoy it now versus many years later than the delta between $14.5K and $20Kis probably not a big deal and you have the watch now versus jumping through a bunch of hoops and waiting god knows how long.

So to me if cost and to some extent long-term value/investment is the goal then wait and pay MSRP - if more immediately ownership and enjoyment of the watch is paramount then find one through Bob's Watches, Chrono or @flat_plane_eddie on here (the ONLY person I would buy a pre-owned or secondary NIB Rolex from - WADR to Bobs and Chrono mind you) and obtain your dream watch(es) now.

Cheers

 

I don't think there is any list of any model that trades at 2 or 3x retail anymore. They are all backdoored to the gray market and or "flippers" (aka preferred customers) who buy the platinum lady date from what I've been told. Buy the crap, get the sport models..

 

At least here in Colorado that's not the case but can't speak for other areas.

Another interesting twist/factor will be the newly-announced Certified Rolex Pre-Owned Program.

This will change the options and dynamics for serious buyers significantly IMHO.

Good luck- It is a PITA that a person with the desire, interest and means can't simply go buy the watch they desire- but the chase can be half the fun

 

The market has cooled off a lot but let's just say that during the height of the pandemic I was asked a lot about what it takes to buy a Daytona at MSRP since many clients had an issue with spending 3-4x the MSRP on one. The only thing I could do is give my sources as examples since that was my only first hand experience with getting one. They would spend upwards of $200k with multiple authorized dealers (around 5-10) and even then they'd get 2, maybe 3 a year. That's a lot of money to spend to get just 1 watch. Even when the market was at its peak, at best you'd break even on the hundreds of thousands you'd spend on Datejusts and other less desirable watches and on top of that you'll have to wait 1-2 years.

For most people it's not really worth the effort especially since there's no guarantee of a timeline. The black dial variant you mentioned above is going for around the mid 20s new nowadays. Now with the market being what it is you'll probably lose 20% right away on the "undesirables" which adds up to more than the premium you'll pay getting one from the secondary market. Some people can wait but if I really wanted a watch, I can't see myself waiting 4-5 years to get one and that's my estimate on how long it'll take if you aren't a big spender at an AD or have significant history.

As far as Bob's Watches and Watchbox go, keep in mind they're big companies. That means they offer low and sell for high. Your best bet is to search for the smaller guys who have a good reputation and try to cut a deal there. I'm not sure if it's still the case now but Bob's Watches stopped buying inventory when the crash started happening around March/April and I know that even a couple of months ago they still weren't. Not sure if anything has changed in regards to that but I found that to be an interesting approach.

 

While I generally agree with your point that the correction/crash has been significant, just wanted to throw my 2 cents in that some of the numbers you gave are a bit off. To my knowledge there's not a single watch that was 50-100% over MSRP that's now selling at 50% of MSRP. Ceramic bezel Daytonas with a white dial reached a high of around 50-55 but now they're still around the high 20 to low 30s mark, not under 20.

The 5905P you mentioned above, I sold one new last year for somewhere in the high 70s, then they were discontinued and went up to around 100-120k and now they're in the 60-70k range. The one I sold new last year was just traded in a couple of months ago (high 60s) and I just sold it a few weeks ago for 70. $55k is a pretty low offer for that watch.

Oh and the platinum Daytona, at their peak they were around $200k but when everything was at its peak in February, they weren't quite moving like they were before. Now a new platinum Daytona is around 90-110k. Still not easy to move in this climate but if you see one for $75k I'll bet it's not new and most likely 5-10 years old.

I don't mean for my post to come across as argumentative, I do agree there's been a crash/big correction (whatever you want to call it) but at the same time I'd like to input some more realistic numbers.

 

Eddie all your comments seem very fair and very reasonable. I’m not trying to overstate it. You might absolutely be right in all the prices you’re quoting. I’m not the expert and don’t follow it that closely. It just seemed that things are going down more than just a correction. No one wants prices below MSRP and no one wants them at three times MSRP either, if we can get in that Goldilocks zone a little above msrp where everyone can have fun trading stuff around and there is a little money on the table that would be ideal.

 

• Secondary Rolex market is now a bit flooded and prices are returning to "normal" (i.e. over MSRP but not stupidly over like last year) for someone who does not want to wait and pay MSRP from an AD - It has not "imploded" - it has "corrected".
• "New" Rolex market is no different than it has always been and by no means has imploded nor will it - if anything the inverse - waits are still long and longer than 5-ish years ago for more standard models like basic Subs and GMTs
• Advent of the "Certified Rolex Pre-Owned" program may change things a bit - will wait and see. Initial pricing for "Certified" pre-owned Rolexes from ADs is significantly higher than the current secondary market.

Cheers

 

There is a very interesting article in the May 23, 2024, The Wall Street Journal* about Hodinkee and the headwinds it is facing and management missteps since its founding. Apparently there have been big layoffs, the acquisition of Crown & Caliber has essentially been a failure. At one point a shutdown was under consideration. I was personally disappointed when they stopped offering vintage watches.

*I get the print edition. I think the online article is behind a paywall, but it’s worthwhile reading if somebody is able to post it.

 

Fantastic article:

https://www.wsj.com/style/fashion/hodinkee-luxury-watches-ben-clymer-b4078322?mod=wsjhp_columnists_pos1

 

Its interesting that Hodinkee made made the WSJ. There have been discussions on this topic going for quite a while elsewhere.

 

Hodinkee is failing because of mismanagement pure and simple. It's not market specific pressures, they don't know what they want to be now, they went from a very respectable niche online watch content driven company (excellent content) to a watch reseller and lifestyle influencer company that's all over the place, sometimes more money and being bigger isn't so good.

 

True, but increasing market pressures mean that they no longer have the margin of error they had - thus exposing the issues.

Regards,
Art S.

 

I chalk it up to their hubris, opening that retail space in NYC was purely an ego driven decision.

 

I believe they didn’t have a coherent business plan when they started and it seems like they still don’t. I’m not a fan of the new and used watches that they sell. I’m more interested in vintage and that’s the main reason I started reading their site. I think they called the vintage feature Bring a Loupe. A couple of years ago they discontinued selling vintage and became a retail outlet for more and more brands. Founder Ben Clymer was a member of FerrariChat very briefly. He had a pretty nice 456 or 456M.

 

Hodinkee seems to be announcing one “sale” after another. Desperation?

 

Hodinkee is re-tooling. Did anybody else see the message sent out by the founder? It was pretty explicit. He even alluded to the WSJ article linked in #216 above. Hodinkee is selling off the watch inventory as well as other items in the shop. They’re also shutting down Crown and Caliber. It looks like they’re getting out of retailing and going back to the original concept, but how do you make any money at that? Many people have been laid off. I’m sure it can be found at Hodinkee.com What seems odd is that they’re still promoting new watches from brands that they stocked as a dealer. It may have been part of a severance or exit deal.

 

To make matters worse they still owe some dealers money so it'll be interesting to see if they pay or not. Either way, just another story of too much and too fast. I've seen a few of these over my short 15 year career but it's become easier to spot them.

 

I’ve heard that the money they spent on remote reporting from Milan, Switzerland, etc. was eyewatering.