Is the watch Market imploding?

Interesting pricing / market commentary:

 

Hodinkee has formed some sort of business association with Watches of Switzerland. The mostly self-congratulatory announcement from Ben Clymer…which left no doubt that he’s back in charge of H, by the way …isn’t clear as to what form the relationship is, but it feels like a bail-out acquisition. I don’t known how much inventory H was still stuck with after weeks of sales but I imagine part of the deal was that this would be taken over by the various WoS retailers. Some are complaining that watches purchased weeks ago still haven’t been delivered.

 

European Watch Company bought Crown and Caliber.

 

Long video but covers a lot. Luxury goods, China, watch theft, classic cars, etc. Boyle is a finance guy not a watch industry type.

 

White Panda Daytona around $25K now, I think we are close to the bottom.

 

I just bought a new 24' watch on the grey market, I looked for 4 to 6 months because I wasn't sure what I wanted. The watch I bought could not be bought for less than $45K. to $46K on Chrono or anywhere else. Watchcharts states a value well below reality so it seems it's not that accurate. Chrono's charts seem to be more accurate at least for the watches I was looking at.

https://watchcharts.com/watch_variation/1484-rolex-cosmograph-daytona-126519ln-0006/overview

 

Based on yours and my experience it makes me question the accuracy, I wonder where they get their data. My feeling is that Chrono charts more accurately.

 

It’s certainly been a correction to get used to.
The venerable Patek SS Nautilus 3700 in MHO, a great indicator, seems to keep falling from a high of $250K to the sale last week at $83K.

 

Please don’t shoot to messenger!!!

 

I'd like to pick up on of those PPs soon.

 

I think it’s an opportunity if you want it.

 

Just picked it up today

 

Yes it's a 24, brand new with stickers and papers.

I did confirm the dealers are selling watches to the grey market, this guy can get anything brand new. PP, RM, Rolex, AP, etc.

 

I've read that Patek tracks all watches. if it ends up on secondary market quickly... dealer is banned.

 

I dont know abut that, he had one in the plastic that he just sold and said he could get me another within a week or two. Pricing is insane though, some models are double msrp.

 

Well it appears as though the precious metal Daytonas will be receiving a 14% price increase from Rolex on Jan 1. Pretty substantial. Unsure if they'd implement it if it meant they watches would be sitting in cases due to the $5K increase...

 

Yeah, it's not gonna matter. If anything, it means they will go up in the secondary market as well.

 

I agree that it makes sense in terms of market price for the Au Daytona variants, but I'd argue that Ferrari is struggling with new car values because the cars are simply less compelling. A 126519 checks more watch enthusiast boxes than a 12 Cilindri does for sports car enthusiasts IMO.

Yep agreed.

 

This is true. Not for all watches but many of the popular ones. Told to me by head of Patek USA himself.