Is the watch Market imploding?

Well, the 3700 is the original and about 7500 were made but there somewhere just shy of 70,000 Nautilus form watches made by PP.

There are three ways to look at this:
1. The Cubitus' bad publicity knocked down the appeal of the Nautilus. Meaning it's no longer the flavor of the month. In which case, it still has a long way to fall.
2. The total production of Nautilus type watches cannot justify the premium. There are more than enough out there to meet demand. This suggests the market will stabilize a little lower than here.
3. The Nautilus was the greatest watch ever, there will not be anything better. In which case this is a temporary correction.

I don't have a dog in the fight, these aren't my thing (although I like PP). From my perspective, I highly doubt 3 is the case; the answer is somewhere between 1 and 2. It's a decent watch but you can buy a lot of other nice things for the current price. Remember, this watch sold new for $3,100.

To me, a 3700 Nautilus isn't the equivalent of a decent Ferrari. Just my 2 cents.

Regards,

Art S.

 

I’m hearing the green steel cubitus is trading at 3 times the msrp, so not sure that will adversely affect nautilus. Maybe the opposite.

 

Great read, Art.
Thanks.

 

I started watching with skepticism, but its actually quite a good overview of the mindset surrounding collectibles. Also some good data: I had no idea Rolex production was ~1.25M units/year, or that there were ~125 Rolex shops in China. It's not his expertise, but the comments on automobiles as collectibles are also provocative. Thanks for posting!

 

A really good deep dive!

 

Jutsn look how many 23 and 24 GT4RS are for sal with under 1k miles trying to recover the premium or some part of the premium the owner paid.
In ferrari land a scud is for sure special. But a 296, those cars are going to depreciate MC20 its going to tank. Pursongue, those will be sued 2+2 ferraris.

Gt3's, 991 991.2 992 they all really look the same, and imo 911s in general will become like harleys. Remember the big wait lists for those. Eventually everyone who wants one, has had one, the new ones are too similar to the old ones to sustain the numbers.
Or could be a 911 is like a rolex, the badge of success and everyone of a certain socio economic class has to have one always.

Even still cars unlike watches cost a lot of money to keep every year.

Ultimately though as the ev era dawns ever greater, and legislation in general intrudes theyre simply not going to be making that many new future classic cars, and global populations and wealth should increase driving prces. Whether the cost of keeping the car is justified by the price increase will be a big question mark and highly dependant on the car.

A GMD T33 at 3 mill will be a30 mill car as the Mclaren f1 was. Whether a 360 will be worth the cost to keep is another question entirely. A pista?