296 VS

But yes... the (v likely) recession obviously more salient

 

296 SF90 Family - no tariff on existing orders, who knows but that's what it seems like today.

 

I am still waiting to see if someone drops out. That seems to be my only shot at this point. My understanding is that my dealer’s cars are all marked out, but I don’t know if the buyers have all made deposits.

or if there is a second wave of allocations.

 

I don’t think deposits can technically be put down until the car is unveiled if the dealer is playing by the rules. But yes cars are probably already assigned.

There probably will be a second wave of allocations of the VS coupes (though less than initial amount) and there’s always the long shot of a few extra VS Spiders…

 

Coco you’re a maniac!

 

You’ll get one. I’m confident.

 

I already gave my deposit.

 

My understanding was that you needed to have one already to get the order. Not have one on order but physically have one. I had a gts on order. Got the call, bought the only brand new GTB the dealership had and ordered the VS same day. I imagine every dealership is different.

 

To fully eat the tariff (holding all else equal) revenue on US sales would have to fall by 20%.

By passing on a 10% increase to the customer (again, holding all else equal) revenue on US sales would have to fall by something like 11% (plus or minus depending on what you assume about import price relative to MSRP). If the US accounts for a little under 30% of revenue, that's something like a 3% global revenue hit.

But, of course, that's revenue, not income. And even with healthy EBIT margins of nearly 30%, that would be a 10% hit to EBIT. And, for what it's worth, RACE is down about nearly 20% from its February peak.

But the interesting thing is that Ferrari guidance is for a much smaller impact (50bps to EBIT margins). And I'm sure their estimates are better than my janky math here. So, clearly there's something I'm missing.

I'm sure they'll shift some units to other markets and ask the dealers to eat some (from their already slim margins), but I doubt that explains the difference. Anyone know how they're making this work?

 

This would explain it.

But is this true that import cost is only half of MSRP in the US? Current duties are only 2.5% I think (so would be 1.25% of sticker). Transportation costs post-customs can't be that high, and I've been told that dealer margins are pretty thin. Where does the rest of the money go? Does it get booked by Ferrari NA?

 

Any thoughts on the teaser sound ? Any leaks ?
Assured of a car deposit on April 29. Ferrari will
Determine coupe vs spider I’m told.

 

I like it. Listen with AirPods or anything better than phone speakers and to the insane upshift cracks into 4th and 5th gear.

 

add a 918 Spyder to that list

 

That would be a rough standard since I ordered my GTS three years ago and it’s on Ferrari to produce and deliver it, or not. “You can’t order the VS now because you don’t have the GTS yet that you ordered in April 2022…”

The dealer has my GTB, on the sales floor still. Would actually be a hilarious twist of events if they said I could get a VS but I had to buy my GTB back from them. The absolute absurdity of it would be that I was willing to keep it last year if they gave me an allocation under contract and the dealer refused.

 

EBITDA margin is ~38-40%. I think their magic is that increasing prices ~10% means the US consumer takes most of the additional cost. Not bad tbh

 

Yeah, not the case. Appear to not need one for some dealers. My GTB hasn’t come yet, and I asked if I officially was locked for a spider, and dealer said “when you take delivery of your gtb.”

 

I've heard the following:
Need a 296, or
Need a 296 plus 2 other Ferraris for a VSS, or
Need to have owned a 296 for more than a year before selling it plus currently own 3 Ferraris and have bought a new one in the last 2 years and have 1 or 2 incoming.
And after all of that, if your local dealer has a clientele that exceeds all of these then you are on the B or C list anyway...

Despite all this we still want that Ferrari.. its hilarious and scary at the same time.

 

I heard need to pass a DNA test as well.....might just be a rumor though.

 

Have to consider previous ownership too tho. Maybe you’ve bought 5+ brand new cars and are a higher level of client than I am
I know some one that is a TOP client and they got a 812 Comp A. Never saw them with an 812….

 

Haha it is and it isn’t! Same thing with Rolex Ap or Patek… we like these cars and their brand, simple!

 

That would be hilarious. I’m speaking from my personal experience and really we’re all just guessing. I also have everything on order, maybe that has something to do with it

 

Yeah, I was citing EBIT, not EBITDA. I figure depreciation and amortization are unaffected. (Presumably interest too, but went with what I had.)

The magic is how a 10% increase is enough to pass on the lion's share of the cost to the consumer. But if @Lukeylikey is correct that import cost is around half of MSRP, that would explain it.

 

Yep, agree.

 

Yes, always a consideration. More than 5 new cars over the years, but I’m in a market with some big ownership clients. Maybe I’m persistent

 

This is true.
Apparently it's possible to not qualify and still receive VS - until they don't. It does appear to be open to dealers selecting off of an approved list. Many brands started cracking down, flippers short holders. Ferrari if they want to keep the lines clear, should show zero tolerance.