The restoration "cut off date"

Break even is OK, but you won't see $200k or even $100k restorations on 308s under anywhere close to current values

 

The problem will be scan tools and coding of modules to the cars. Many modules will simply not function without them being married to the car. Many of these modules are difficult to get even today. They are one time use, once coded, they cannot be used in any other car. These modules are VERY expensive, so you better be right.

There is a lot of trial and error in car restoration, especially by the backyard hobbiest. Not too many people will have the stomach to throw away 5k on a module when it wasn't needed, with no way to recoup some costs. There are MILLIONS of lines of code in these cars, all systems are integrated with each other using can networks/m.o.s.t rings, that require expensive equipment to repair and diagnose.

Not saying somebody won't take on the task, but as these cars age, less and less of the electronics will be available. Just look at the 360 ECU's, no longer available. And as far as I know repair is only for a few circuits. If you have a fried board you are dead in the water.

It will.be interesting to see.

 

There is no "fried board" on a 360 ECU.

 

I get it, the point was, there are no replacements, and repair is not easy as the board is sealed with jell-o

 

So... Politely... Respectfully... I think you are wrong.

I've made a great business if buying cars that people have multiples of what their cars value is in a restoration.

I have bought many mgbs with 40k in them.

Mgas with 60-80k in them.

Mustangs with 100k and bought them for 40k.


Tons of 1930s cars.

People do it for the love of doing it and having a perfect one. They know it's dumb.

Hell the cast majority of restomods are a losing proposition yet they are massively popular.

 

the other issue will be rogue states like cali mandating oe ecus cats etc that are NLA . An aftermarket fix may not be cali legal even if a solution exists or market will not exist to produce product if strict policy makes those products illegal.

 

Ummm...the C167 has been EOL for quite a few years now. Same for the early TriCore/Aurix parts. Probably not unobtanium, but only available through grey market brokers. FIFY... ;-)

Perhaps a greater sourcing problem for replacement semiconductors will be the integrated motor drivers, high side switches and some of the other more highly integrated functions.

As a background, I provided technical sales engineering support to the greater transportation industry for the best part of 30 years, thus was either supporting or competing with suppliers for successive generations of automotive semiconductor technology. You might say I "grew up" with the C167... ;-)

 

No issue with your difference of opinion on this.....if you can make money from people's stupid decisions I have no problem with it. Guys like Donnie stay in business for decades doing this.

 

yup! (The Donnie's of the world sometimes talk them into it and then sometimes the Donnie's of the world just get lucky and someone pours money into a project forever)

But I think it's human nature and it will never change. People will be misspending money through eternity. Lol

 

Still think going underwater on a restoration is the rare exception rather than the rule.

 

Man I don't want to seem as harping on you. I'm not. I'm genuinely curious as to why you say that. In my experience it is exceedingly rare for people to come out ahead. The rare times it happens is someone does a 3 year restoration and in that 3 years the market skyrocketed and they got lucky

So I'm not trying to pick on you and I know we can absolutely have two different perspectives... I'm just curious as to why you think that it's rare for people to be underwater on a resto?

 

I guess the people in this hobby I have interacted with are smart enough not to put more money into something than it is worth. This kind of thing comes up in conversations. It took me 9 years of saving to buy my first exotic so bent the ears of every knowledgeable person I could find in those 9 years (and in the 6 years after that to buy my second one....neither of which I could afford at current valuations). Now this is the exotic side that I'm in, seems like lots of crazy occurs with American cars of the 60s.

As you are involved in alot of transactions, maybe there are more stupid people than I give them credit for.....look how bad Americans are in financial literacy. Particularly middle class (where I miserably reside) and lower.

But I can't be all bad....after all I found you a Carrera GT at a price you didn't think they existed at the time