296 Values and Used Market

List price to list price. You are conflating data. A 458 Speciale Aperta wasn't almost 2-3x the base price of a 458 Spider.

A 2015 458 Speciale Aperta was around $50k MSRP more than 2015 458 Spider.

In period, 458 Spiders were selling for WELL OVER their MSRPs thus making the difference zero....or in many cases making it so the guy with the slightly used 458 Spider could sell and make a $50-75k profit and then roll that profit into a 458 Speciale and make a profit again. Try that now.

The 296 series cars have depreciated and Ferrari raised the prices to max retail ++ on the 296 Speciales. The spreads now make zero sense. As I said before, at best the Speciale coupes will hold value.

PS I WOULD buy a 296 Speciale Aperta...even at these prices. That is probably a safe move. We passed on our Speciale coupe spot and our dealer isnt expecting any additional Apertas to be offered to them. I couldn't let our GTS go for a coupe..felt like going in the wrong direction.

 

What country are you in? in the USA they are 100 over MSRP or more.

 

the UK, 458 spec's are way over list but Pistas aren't (excluding Piloti)

 

Similar boat - bought new 296GTS and cancelled my 296GTS spec. Few days before was going to cancel 296GTS but the dealer had warned me it could hurt receiving other limited models - all I wanted was the 12Ci Comp version.
I did this as a 100% assumption would get VS Spider - that did not happen only coupe and now I hesitant to deal with the dealer / Ferrari going forward.

 

First, kudos to those driving in winter. I do but glad to hear others do as well. Second, the winters are cold but not brutal. Third, the car is in the garage and I can start it and warm it up.

 

Now you are where I am.

 

GM Ford is eating billions in tariffs GM I believe is eating 4B by yer end.
Porsche GT3RS being delivered next week 3.5% tariff. I am slightly pissed at Ferrari for not eating at least 1/2 of tariff on VS.
Love older Ferrari's the new ones IMO you just need one as they are all very much alike. In the past people collected Ferrari''s - going forward I do not think hybrids are collectibles but for LaF and XX - very limited and very bespoke builds. F80 all the meat has been taken off the bones. My point is hybrid buyers are not collectors and at 6-700k VS unlimited production is a big ask. Same thing with my SF90 AF Spider at 770k - there is no support on the secondary market anywhere close. XX saves the day and VS does not - which was a big mistake imo - should have been more limited more aero more bespoke to save the 296 market.

 

two point above- are right on-

flipping base cars to recoup with a special version if you ever get one is a pyramid scheme that could take a lifetime. that is not an investment. that is flipping and gambling.

and yes- a speciale aperta spec that will ultimately cost 800k when a GTS costs half that used is absurd.

yes- ferrari got too greedy

 

I think you make a good point about the spread between the base model and the special model, especially given the market value of the base model. But should we compare sticker prices or market values or both? In the end, its the market value that really matters most. Heres how it plays to my mind, not saying I have the objective truth or anything, just how I see it.

We could compare the the XX model of the SF90. The base SF90 Stradale price was about 530k? (From memory, excuse any errors) and the XX coupes I think is somethng like 890k base. I think the average SF90 Stradale price has to be around 650k and the average XX coupes has to be around 1.1m. So base to base the XX is 68% of a price increase. As typically loaded its about a 24% increase. What does the Speciale look like with similar adjustments? If the base price of the 296 GTB is 346k, then a similar base price adjustment of the XX would mean the 296 Speciale coupe price should be 581k. My guess is the average GTB retails around 450k? If we apply the 24% increase for the as loaded up car then you get an estimated as loaded price of 558k. It seems the base price of the Speciale is 470k before any fees or taxes… so with about 100k of options that gets you right about where the estimate from the XX program roughly lands.

Now, my understanding is the XX coupes are trading for a very very substantial increase over MSRP- yet- the SF90 Stradale is not exactly a highly in demand model on the secondary market at the moment. This puts the spread between the base coupe and the market. Its probably too early to really know where they land but if we look at reported XX coupe sales of +1m then you are looking at a nearly doubling of the as optioned up value. On a car that costs 7 figures.

Im happy to be wrong but, I think all this reinforces my thinking, which is whats the biggest reason for the difference in valuation- is it the mechanical improvements or is it what we would call “collectability factors”.

When new 458 Spiders were going for over, but they then came down. Back in the day I could have bought a Speciale coupe for a slight discount. It seems unbelievable today.

Time will provide us with the answers, but if I am Ferrari, and I am pricing these things and I see the market values of:

458 Speciale (600k?)/ Aperta (1.2m?)

Pista (550k?) / Spider (800k?) / Piloti (900k?)

The aforementioned XX models (early days)

All the other special models

I would price the coupe, Aperta, and Piloti with some relation to those levels. So a coupe that will average out with typical options in the mid 5s doesnt seem out of place, and same for the spider which probably ends up in the mid to high 6s.

Is it expensive? Yes. Is it too far for the world of today? Only time will tell. But, I also think these models will hold value, maybe they dip down for a time, but they will also come back.

When Speciale came out, there seemed to be a decent number available; with the Pista, it really seemed like a lot were available. And values did dip. And now…???

Yes, the past is no guarantee of the future. I will say this- the 296 drives immense, so I imagining the Speciale will be even more so- and don’t forget the early reviews of the 458 Speciale were impressed but said there wasn’t that much of a difference from the base Italia… which one would you rather own today…

 

Point is, I sometimes drive with gloves on. Nothing to do with driving, just to keep my hands warm!

 

The UK is bizarro world when it comes to exotic car pricing.

Brexit did it no good (not a political statement).

 

RHD also a contributing factor, because the cars get trapped there.

 

As are all track editions -
Last 5 years everything limited esp Spiders have gone thru the roof -
Question is why - my answer hybrid, will that change like it did on Pista due to turbo - we will see,
The old purists voices get drowned out - eventually they all do well, really well.
Fast forward Ferrari is now charging 4m F80 600k VS - there is no meat left on the bone.
The fun is over on newer cars - watch the fun begin on the older - my .02

 

sf90 XX is/ was numbered....Ferrari will produce a total of 1398 SF90 XX models, with 799 SF90 XX Stradale coupes and 599 SF90 XX Spider convertibles. That is a true limited run car (even though 1398 isn't really that rare...600 or less is rare).

the 296 Speciale Coupe is not numbered and we don't know if the Aperta will be either. Based on the previous production trends Ferrari will produce 3-4000 Coupes and 400-1400 Apertas. The coupe will most likely hold value where the Aperta will most likely be worth more.

Historically, Pista vs Pista Aperta.., 458 Speciale coupe vs 458S Aperta...the Aperta was numbered. Look at the value differences. Heck 430 Scuderia vs 16m. 16ms were limited to 399 units IIRC. Scuds sell for what they cost in 2009 (300k unless super low miles) and the 16m's are 2-3x what they cost in 2009.

 

I don't know what current capacity is on the manufacturing lines, but there are way more models currently in production than in the past. That leads me to believe that there isn't nearly enough time to produce that many models given the stated timeline. Models currently in production include; 12C, 12Cspider, 296GTB, 296GTS, Puro, Roma Spider, Amalfi, SF90spider, F80, SF90XX, SF90XXspider, 812Comp, 812ComA in addition to the 296speciale and 296speciale A.

 

they dont produce cars concurrently. They have the 13k per year capacity...the Speciale is a 2-.3 year model run (that is what I read). The made 3500 Pistas (I have read 5000 so who knows).

IMO, this new pricing is going to drive pre-owned late model and 'modern classic' values up significantly.

 

Excellent point about being number limited, thats what I mean when I say collector factors. The last true numbered car from Ferrari was the 550 Barchetta Pininfarina at officially 448 production, and I think it was 8 pre or post production cars. Those were numbered number X out of Y production. Now they are 1 of XXX production.

My main point is about using market prices vs sticker prices. You are saying the spread between the base model, having been beaten down a bit, means trouble for the Speciale, being priced fairly high. I am saying I am not so sure. Selfishly, I would like to see the prices not as high!

As to hybrid being an issue. I bring up XX to point out that hybrid itself doesnt seem to be too big an issue for the collector market.

I think the issue with production numbers and Speciale will be those cars that are not good specs, or get driven too much.

What is the last of with Speciale? Well, listen to the low volume level of the F80. It's that way due to regulations. What about the eventual 296 follow up. It might have to be very quiet compared to the 296. The 296 sound very good as it is. It might really stand out. I think we'll get an indication on the sound volume situation when they reveal the follow up to the SF90 later this Summer.

 

The days of buying Ferraris, taking a loss, and counting on a “special car” to make up the difference seem to be ending—even models like the F80 are already fully priced. While the 812 Competizione has been great for its owners and probably marks the last “special” car to avoid steep depreciation, dealerships and buyers will need to adjust to a new reality.

Dealerships will likely have to rethink how they operate. It may become harder to convince people that buying non-special models (and potentially taking big losses) will eventually pay off with a special edition. Unless the 296 Speciale holds or increases in value significantly, that strategy might not work anymore.

For what it’s worth, I think the Special Coupe will hold its value, but there’s always a chance it won’t—this is the uncertainty buyers are facing now.

It’s also fair to say that other manufacturers are offering comparable—if not better—performance at lower price points. Take the C8 Corvette Z06 and ZR1, for example. If you’ve had a chance to drive or hear one, you might agree they’ve made a strong statement. However, many people reading this will still prefer Ferrari for its brand prestige, and that makes sense too.

My personal focus will be on older special-series Ferraris like the Pista and earlier models. I expect those will increase significantly in value in the next 12–18 months, especially if Ferrari passes the full cost of tariffs onto buyers.

Just to be clear, I’m sharing this as an enthusiast. My plan is to keep our current GTS model and simply offer these thoughts in hopes they help others navigate this changing Ferrari landscape.

 

Don’t necessarily disagree with your pov. Will add there is always another semi rich person waiting to step up to the game when a vip drops out. Never ending.

 

I am a VIP and I dropped out, so yeah.

There is a price limit for everything. Add to this the intense competition from highly focused low production hand built cars. Like these guys: https://www.kimera-automobili.com/ or the dozens of others. If you want a truly unique, personalized experience that will always be exclusive and special there are perhaps far better options than a modern Ferrari.

That said, Ii you must have an exclusive special series Ferrari, here ya go. (thank me later): https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2009-ferrari-f430-scuderia-spider-16m-2/

IMO, Ferrari is doubling down on the whole fashion and lifestyle brand thing and leaving the enthusiasts along the road. Ferraris (and others) are now merely status symbols. ALL of their USPs have been bested except for the brand perception; And they are working on destroying that...want proof? Have you seen the fashion stuff they sell....its horrific. https://store.ferrari.com/it-it/uomo/abbigliamento/camicie/camicia-in-tartan-di-lana-22616f29.html

 

Even the "previous" model of depreciation wiped out by the profit on special series was not sustainable - because most people buying the regular cars were not receiving the special series, so they needed to accept the depreciation.
Of course a level of depreciation is normal and should be accepted (if one wants a car, there's no reason to reject any cost), but there is a limit.

 

There you go, you finally join the group of enthusiasts who are aware of what Ferrari has become !

 

the sf90xx trades at a big premium and could be the last, I think in the future only Iconas will trade at a premium as well as special project customer cars (haven't seen one of these in awhile now though so idk if ferrari are still doing them)

 

I don’t think it’s in question that Ferrari is taking more money off the table. One thought that’s occurred to me is time. In addition to the other factors we’ve discussed, I think you might be able to look at this as they have moved the hold cycle for seeing appreciation further out. That is how long it takes to see the appreciation on a special model is no longer day 1 when you leave the dealer, it’s now maybe having to wait for the follow on special model, so maybe 5 years? So, if you look out over a few cycles you might see that the special models will hold value fairly well. Anyone who held on to a 458 Speciale coupe is feeling pretty good today. How about anyone who held on to a Pista? Does that make up for other costs along the way? Thats a person by person discussion. The negative view on this is the time cost of holding the car makes it not worth it. The positive way of looking at this is it will discourage the flippers.

We tend to look at nominal values here, I bet if we adjust for real values, we would see these are not really the best investment, but, its nice to have a passionate hobby that covers at least some of its costs.

I disagree they don’t make cars for enthusiasts, I think they are still great driving cars, developed by a truly wonderful team; but they have moved prices much higher, and in that way, you could say its an even richer persons game.

For us the critical thing is to figure out how we can continue to enjoy these cars.

 

In my experience (costly experience BTW) if you want a special series car...buy pre-owned and skip the BS. Pay whatever the market demands and be happy.

That said, buy older Ferraris (frankly the cool factor in older cars is 10x the modern cars). Next, look into the small boutique brands (like I posted above). Last, go explore your options in the new car world. Last, do yourself a favor, set aside your brand bias, drive a new Zr6 (or Zr1). The ZR6 does 'V8' Ferrari better than Ferrari.