Scuderia Ferrari 2025

Translation: Black Thursday for Ferrari on Piazza Affari: the stock dropped over 15% after unveiling its financial targets for 2030 (net revenues of about 9 billion euros, 5% annual growth rate). CEO Benedetto Vigna: "I think people were expecting higher revenues [...] but it's important to put into practice what we say"

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On the sidelines of the Capital Market Day, John Elkann spoke about the commitment to F1: "Racing, a story that began on the track almost 100 years ago, defines who we are. I want to be clear: this is a personal matter. My commitment is as chairman, as majority shareholder and, above all, as a person who has lived Ferrari as a lifelong passion. I am committed to ensuring that every decision we make can strengthen Ferrari's uniqueness. I am committed to our people, whose talent and dedication are the greatest guarantee for our future. I am committed to our beloved ferraristi who entrust us with their dreams. And I am committed to our loyal fans, eager to see us win in F1 just as we are winning in Endurance. And it is with pride that we brought home the trophy after 3 consecutive wins at Le Mans this year. Forza Ferrari, always."

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Makes me want to throw up in my mouth. Talks about F1 defining Ferrari, heritage, wanting to win, yet it's because of him that we have a driver in the lineup who's 3 seasons past his expiration date.

 

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Fundamentally it seems the F1 teams is not progressing at all, the car is seemingly not being developed and I wonder if the outburst of the 7 WDC earlier in the season have not negatively affected morale in the team.

Of course there is the old cliche....next year. Whichever year that might be.

 

Can't they take constructive criticism at Maranello, or everyboby expects praise, even when nothing is achieved ?

 

You should read the CFRA report. SELL, price target 350. Some highlights:

Key risks include
(1) a decline in production quality leading to product recalls and safety issues damaging the key Ferrari brand;
(2) poor F1 performance leading to multiple years damaging brand equity; and
(3) competition from other luxury auto brands

Happy to share the report if you are interested, just PM me where to send.

 

Especially when...HE WAS RIGHT!

 

FIFY

 

I only highlighted F1, since this is the F1 forum. I agree with you that style and exclusivity are more important to their target market. However, you cannot go on losing forever without impact to your brand; otherwise winning wouldn't matter either. I think we are at an inflection point personally. I'm not looking at F1 press, I'm looking at dramatically declining revenue growth YoY - 17%, 12% 10%, 6%. You are comparing this growth to other car companies, which makes sense, but you have to realize that Ferrari is supposed to be more than another car company. VW trades at a P/E ratio of 5; Ferrari is around 50. CFRA highlights the fact that they behave almost more like a luxury brand than an automaker.

I would say Porsche, Lamborghini, and McLaren are the main ones. Obviously at the boutique one-off end, they also compete with Pagani, Koenigsegg, GMA, etc. I've never heard a good thing about Aston, but I do see their SUVs running around a lot. Certainly, they are *a* competitor in certain market segments, but I have no idea to what extent. I think it is surprising to me the demand and premiums people are paying for new and used Porsches. Contrast this with Ferrari's which are depreciating badly in the aftermarket. This was a trend reserved for McLaren until recently. Lambos are also in high demand new and used. Nothing conclusive, just a red flag from my perspective. It is not consistent with a brand that is "exclusive". Yes, I'm aware of how much Ferrari makes per car, etc. Again, these are just red flags I see. It will always be hard to, essentially, compare Ferrari to VW's sub brands. It is worth noting that VW is now entering F1 with the Audi brand.

I respect your opinion. From my perspective, both Vigna and Elkann are responsible for various decisions that don't give me confidence in the company. The new all-electric platform as one example. I do not believe this makes sense financially or otherwise. That they thought this was a good announcement to couple with revenue guidance, I think is yet another mistake. The street appears to believe so as well. Certainly, I could be wrong, but I think it is the wrong move strategically. I also believe it will further lower quality. Recalls are part of the process for car companies, but Ferrari is not valued like a normal car company. So these kinds of things carry additional risk for them vs say someone like Mercedes or BMW. Then there is the F1 team. I don't think I need to elaborate for anyone here how that is going.

How do you achieve endless revenue growth while maintaining exclusivity? The revenue growth is already falling off a cliff...and no guidance suggesting it will get back to the levels that made the stock such a good performer over the last few years. Likewise, there are more major manufacturers with big budgets entering F1 next year and Ferrari could fall even farther in the medium term. I would guess they are ok in the short term, but who knows with Vasseur in there. This year has gone worse than I expected and I was already pessimistic; so, it has even been a surprise to me. GM racing is no joke. Europeans may turn their noses up at them, but I saw what they did in IMSA with their LMP1 Cadillac and in the GTLM cars with Corvette. I know people that worked and drove for them. They are not to be underestimated.

I'm aware of the fact that I am not their target market. I don't like the modern Ferrari's for a variety of reasons. All of those points I posted are not mine, but that of CFRA which, again, has a price target of 350 and gave their guidance at the beginning of the month - not in reaction to yesterday.

Finally, I have personally seen a steady decline in the quality of the designs since they split with Pininfarina. This is of course subjective. I think the designers at Ferrari have too much power. And while I am a nobody in the car world, I saw an interview recently where Gordon Murray expressed the same opinion. It was not targeted at Ferrari specifically, but I think all supercars in general. He said something to the effect of - the cars are needlessly wide and too heavy. The term, "inmates running the asylum" comes to mind for me. I do not think this is exclusively a Ferrari problem either, but I think they have the most to lose.

Ultimately there is no crystal ball and I will never root against Ferrari corporate or the F1 team. I'm very good at staying long on companies I believe in, despite short term storms that rattle investors. I've lost faith in Ferrari gradually; not overnight. I sincerely hope I'm wrong and I will always be the same fan I was as a kid, but my gut tells me they are in a tough spot and making the wrong moves because of poor leadership.

 

my sentiments as well, unfortunately i predicted Vasseur would be a disaster but hope i am wrong!