Scuderia Ferrari 2025

Translation: Black Thursday for Ferrari on Piazza Affari: the stock dropped over 15% after unveiling its financial targets for 2030 (net revenues of about 9 billion euros, 5% annual growth rate). CEO Benedetto Vigna: "I think people were expecting higher revenues [...] but it's important to put into practice what we say"

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On the sidelines of the Capital Market Day, John Elkann spoke about the commitment to F1: "Racing, a story that began on the track almost 100 years ago, defines who we are. I want to be clear: this is a personal matter. My commitment is as chairman, as majority shareholder and, above all, as a person who has lived Ferrari as a lifelong passion. I am committed to ensuring that every decision we make can strengthen Ferrari's uniqueness. I am committed to our people, whose talent and dedication are the greatest guarantee for our future. I am committed to our beloved ferraristi who entrust us with their dreams. And I am committed to our loyal fans, eager to see us win in F1 just as we are winning in Endurance. And it is with pride that we brought home the trophy after 3 consecutive wins at Le Mans this year. Forza Ferrari, always."

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Makes me want to throw up in my mouth. Talks about F1 defining Ferrari, heritage, wanting to win, yet it's because of him that we have a driver in the lineup who's 3 seasons past his expiration date.

 

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Fundamentally it seems the F1 teams is not progressing at all, the car is seemingly not being developed and I wonder if the outburst of the 7 WDC earlier in the season have not negatively affected morale in the team.

Of course there is the old cliche....next year. Whichever year that might be.

 

The company is sound and given world-wide turmoil in all of the car industry, the margins are good and revenue sound. The projection for 5% a year growth is a dream for most if not all of the other makers given current volatility lol. Look at the numbers - Ferrari have good sound numbers. Hardly the end of the world.

Net Margins Return on Equity Return on Assets
22.95% 45.41% 16.72%

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Analysts at JPMorgan struck an optimistic tone following the presentation, expressing confidence in Ferrari’s strategic execution capabilities.

“We have a great deal of confidence in management’s ability to execute on its long-term plan given ample evidence that demand currently far outstrips supply,” the bank said in a note.

The company’s active client base has expanded to 90,000, up 20% from 2022, underscoring continued demand across its portfolio.

 

Can't they take constructive criticism at Maranello, or everyboby expects praise, even when nothing is achieved ?

 

You should read the CFRA report. SELL, price target 350. Some highlights:

Key risks include
(1) a decline in production quality leading to product recalls and safety issues damaging the key Ferrari brand;
(2) poor F1 performance leading to multiple years damaging brand equity; and
(3) competition from other luxury auto brands

Happy to share the report if you are interested, just PM me where to send.

 

Especially when...HE WAS RIGHT!

 

FIFY

 

Product and style exclusivity matter more than F1, hence the demand outpacing supply yearly. Targets for the stock are all over the place from 430 - 540 etc. They sell win or lose. Makes for bad press but most buyers are not die hard bleeding Tifosi at all.

Porsche is really suffering for now. They still sell ok but sales now will not equate or exceed last years totals. Who are the real competitors? Lambo etc? Certainly not Aston lol.

Vigna is a good leader no matter what Elkann is doing and the overall financial health is sound. The noticeable dip yesterday was a good buy signal in general. Recalls are part of the process and they correct the deficiencies noted but is anyone thinking Ferrari have Toyota/Lexus quality overall?

 

I only highlighted F1, since this is the F1 forum. I agree with you that style and exclusivity are more important to their target market. However, you cannot go on losing forever without impact to your brand; otherwise winning wouldn't matter either. I think we are at an inflection point personally. I'm not looking at F1 press, I'm looking at dramatically declining revenue growth YoY - 17%, 12% 10%, 6%. You are comparing this growth to other car companies, which makes sense, but you have to realize that Ferrari is supposed to be more than another car company. VW trades at a P/E ratio of 5; Ferrari is around 50. CFRA highlights the fact that they behave almost more like a luxury brand than an automaker.

I would say Porsche, Lamborghini, and McLaren are the main ones. Obviously at the boutique one-off end, they also compete with Pagani, Koenigsegg, GMA, etc. I've never heard a good thing about Aston, but I do see their SUVs running around a lot. Certainly, they are *a* competitor in certain market segments, but I have no idea to what extent. I think it is surprising to me the demand and premiums people are paying for new and used Porsches. Contrast this with Ferrari's which are depreciating badly in the aftermarket. This was a trend reserved for McLaren until recently. Lambos are also in high demand new and used. Nothing conclusive, just a red flag from my perspective. It is not consistent with a brand that is "exclusive". Yes, I'm aware of how much Ferrari makes per car, etc. Again, these are just red flags I see. It will always be hard to, essentially, compare Ferrari to VW's sub brands. It is worth noting that VW is now entering F1 with the Audi brand.

I respect your opinion. From my perspective, both Vigna and Elkann are responsible for various decisions that don't give me confidence in the company. The new all-electric platform as one example. I do not believe this makes sense financially or otherwise. That they thought this was a good announcement to couple with revenue guidance, I think is yet another mistake. The street appears to believe so as well. Certainly, I could be wrong, but I think it is the wrong move strategically. I also believe it will further lower quality. Recalls are part of the process for car companies, but Ferrari is not valued like a normal car company. So these kinds of things carry additional risk for them vs say someone like Mercedes or BMW. Then there is the F1 team. I don't think I need to elaborate for anyone here how that is going.

How do you achieve endless revenue growth while maintaining exclusivity? The revenue growth is already falling off a cliff...and no guidance suggesting it will get back to the levels that made the stock such a good performer over the last few years. Likewise, there are more major manufacturers with big budgets entering F1 next year and Ferrari could fall even farther in the medium term. I would guess they are ok in the short term, but who knows with Vasseur in there. This year has gone worse than I expected and I was already pessimistic; so, it has even been a surprise to me. GM racing is no joke. Europeans may turn their noses up at them, but I saw what they did in IMSA with their LMP1 Cadillac and in the GTLM cars with Corvette. I know people that worked and drove for them. They are not to be underestimated.

I'm aware of the fact that I am not their target market. I don't like the modern Ferrari's for a variety of reasons. All of those points I posted are not mine, but that of CFRA which, again, has a price target of 350 and gave their guidance at the beginning of the month - not in reaction to yesterday.

Finally, I have personally seen a steady decline in the quality of the designs since they split with Pininfarina. This is of course subjective. I think the designers at Ferrari have too much power. And while I am a nobody in the car world, I saw an interview recently where Gordon Murray expressed the same opinion. It was not targeted at Ferrari specifically, but I think all supercars in general. He said something to the effect of - the cars are needlessly wide and too heavy. The term, "inmates running the asylum" comes to mind for me. I do not think this is exclusively a Ferrari problem either, but I think they have the most to lose.

Ultimately there is no crystal ball and I will never root against Ferrari corporate or the F1 team. I'm very good at staying long on companies I believe in, despite short term storms that rattle investors. I've lost faith in Ferrari gradually; not overnight. I sincerely hope I'm wrong and I will always be the same fan I was as a kid, but my gut tells me they are in a tough spot and making the wrong moves because of poor leadership.

 

my sentiments as well, unfortunately i predicted Vasseur would be a disaster but hope i am wrong!

 

These two data points alone suggest that this company is an immediate sell. Very solid analysis! Why anyone would want to own this dumpster fire at 50 times earnings when they can own a big tech company that prints money is beyond my understanding.

 

Probably the best news. Extremely happy they are doing badly.

Hopefully they will learn and know no one in a sane mind would want a electric Ferrari.

 

Appreciate that! To be fair, RACE does pay a dividend while many high tech growth stocks do not.

 

An all electric Ferrari.....Enzo would roll over in his grave.

A infant could run Ferrari, they have a captive market, none of those currently in charge masterminded the Ferrari brand and are just passegers on that gravy train in my humble opinion. The wokery is killing them, a Ferrari was supposed to be expensive, outrageous, fast and magical.

Their downfall is starting as the modern client is becoming more and more wary, quite frankly the modern car is abysmal & boring. I was at a meeting a few months ago and the classic Ferrari's were much more poular than any modern incarnations.

As for the F1 team, its decline is following a similar path, they have this conviction its a Ferrari and it will win while the others roll over.

Nobody can doubt the skilled workforce though, pity the leaders are useless.

 

Perfect comment.
And Enzo isn't the only one who must have rolled over 30x in his grave in recent years.
Give us Forghieri and Pininfarina back !

 

As Ferrari is downsizing engines and even goes electric, Lotus is considering dropping the V6 emira and replacing it with a twin turbo 4 liter V8 because guess what...it's more suitable for Euro 7 regs!!!

Ferrari is so utterly lost in everything they do. F1 is well documented, a complete shambles and now just the marketing arm to sell hats and t shirts.

Road car design I'm sorry to say is in the crapper.

Their road engines went from the best you can get (how crazy good was the NA V12 and V8) to a Turbo V6 that sounds like a vacuum cleaner and an electric engine the same as you get as in an actual vacuum cleaner.

Their mainpage the other day was a f'in fashion show. Not cars, not F1, not racing...FASHION!

They completely lost their way. This is not the Ferrari I've loved since I was little. I still love the "old" stuff but aside from the SP3 and 812, I'm just not interested in the modern stuff anymore.

 

I think Ferrari looks like a solid 4th in the WCC. Max is gaining momentum and they are loosing it.

 

It will be the 2nd time Max single handedly has beaten BOTH Scuderia drivers in seasonal points.

 

--Charles Leclerc's verdict on Ferrari's disappointing F1 season is only getting more bleak as it gets nearer the end - and it sounds like longer-term doubts are starting to creep in-- Headline on The Race.
https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/leclercs-big-2026-warning-for-ferrari/

Maybe if Oscar takes the WDC Norris might look around and Charles goes to Team Papaya?? 2026 silly season could be very surprising lol.

--As a legacy of the secret deal it struck with the FIA over its suspiciously powerful 2019 engine, Ferrari logically sacrificed the COVID seasons of 2020 and 2021 to focus on the all-new ground-effect regulations of 2022.

That worked at first. Ferrari won races again, and Leclerc looked like a title contender early on, but faded as Ferrari's poor execution and weak development blunted Leclerc's challenge.

He's since seen his team overreach in 2023, building a horribly peaky car that destroyed its tyres, then almost the reverse of that in 2024 when, but for a rushed mid-season upgrade that took too long to reverse engineer, Ferrari might have won the constructors' title that was ultimately narrowly lost to McLaren.

But once again he finds himself asking: where is the sustained progress? The same problems that have limited Ferrari since the start of the season are still there and that old problem of not being able to develop a car in-season still seems to be a significant weakness.

This is partly because Ferrari decided in mid-June to switch off 2025 development, in part because it knew by then it wouldn't realistically be in the hunt for a championship McLaren has dominated (having already sealed the constructors' title).

That shows good foresight in the sense it should help Ferrari start 2026 strongly. But if the tools and methodologies being used to get ahead for 2026 are the same ones that have made the 2025 Ferrari such a disappointment to Leclerc, perhaps Ferrari is missing a trick. If it has misjudged the situation, Leclerc's fear of a baked-in disadvantage for several more years could be realised quite quickly.

He says he's still looking forward to 2026, and it surely can't come soon enough given how badly Ferrari's 2025 season has tailed off, but you sense the implicit trust he has in Ferrari to get things right is a bit shaken.--

 

Totally agree. My hope when they really started to look awful this year was, "ok well it is all about 2026". Buuuuut, as I see them get all the basics wrong yet again, I wonder if it will just all fall apart next year even if we have the best car initially.

As a great man once said, "This is why we watch". RIP Ian.

 

Ian - greatly missed here.

 

He should reflect on past masters such as Raikkonen, Alonso, Vettel who all gave up with the inconsistenies in the team. Its been a inherrant problem since 2008. Apart from two golden years they have been a average performing team with massive resources.

 

Well, with Vasseur there was SOME improvement. If Leclerc had scored all year like he did in the second half of the season he would have been 2024 world champion. But they screwed up the car this season. In hindsight, they should have gone with an evolution of what they had.

Well, let's see what Loic Serra has done for 2026. The bright side is that they'll have more wind tunnel hours.