296 Values and Used Market

So it looks like 296 gts/gtb will lose around 80k from new and the super high msrp cars not withstanding. If you are playing the game for a speciale especially a 296 speciale its essentially 50/50 if you will make that loss back when you end up selling the speciale?

it’s probably like trying to catch a falling knife and I should buy the car not the deal but I’m having difficulty reconciling a 80k+ loss. I normally don’t lose a boatload of money on any of my swaps or upgrades

 

It'd be pretty hard to get a new allocation for Speciale unless they release more or enough people back out. And when they do most dealers will probably first try to get people to buy from inventory or a new something else in order to get that allocation.

 

im being offered a speciale but I have to buy a new gts or 12c.

They will buy my gtb back at the price i paid.

I’m mulling it over as the interior spec on the gts is not my ideal choice. The original buyer of that backed out

 

Do they have another that you want, in stock used? If so maybe they'd let you take the 296 gts and buy back for $-50k if you also bought the other one with spec that you like better? So then $50k ADM effectively for Speciale.

 

they do but none in red. Only 1 is more expensive even though they are used and a previous model year. The msrp on the new gts is 430k the rest of the used ones are 419k

 

Plural? Spider, plus.......... ?

 

I went through something similar, now working a deal to get an SF and trade the GTS. If I can find a good 812, I'd move to one of those and daily it.

 

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I like unusual colors.
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Verde masoni opaco. Do you think it would suit a speciale? I have a Ferrari render with it but the configurator does not show the colour even close to how it looks in person

 

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Here’s some pictures with other models and wheels in Verde Masoni if it helps
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they seem to like to match it with gold wheels. I think the Magma looks good with those.

 

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Red goes very well with gold.

 

I'm not buying that Ferrari cars depreciate then climb back in value (excluding the specials, obviously), and that will be the fate of the 296. I know, I'm going to be unliked by everyone who believes their 296's will get back to MSRP in 3 to 5 years, but I just don't see it, and I think with the 296, if you look at the current depreciation curve, will stay depressed for a multitude of reasons. My reason for thinking through this is not to be a contrarian, but rather, it makes me realize that there's no rush to pull a trigger on a 296...I think time is probably on the buyer's side. See attached chart:

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I doubt they get to msrp again however they will flatten out and may pop a bit of inventory tightens up. Also, keep in mind the replacement will be more expensive so it helps gold values of the prior models.

 

Thanks and I agree with. you. The other aspect of this discussion is that if even if the 2012 458 that you own is back to MSRP in 2025 AFTER

- you drove it less than 12000 miles over 13-14 years
- paid hefty insurance , annual service, warranty costs etc
- had to troll 488 and 296 groups regularly on FChat to talk up your car, mess up your own blood pressure

The fact that the original money you paid for the car would do MUCH MUCH better even with a conservative money manager makes you look like an _________

Nothing wrong with the 458, BTW, I just see a really unique personality in 458 ownership group that isn't typical of people that drive 308/TESTAROSSA etc. I don't see them talking up their car vs newer cars

 

I do not know the source nor the accuracy of this graph, but it might have been funny to include the F8 - which I believe has resisted depreciation very well so far.
Regarding the generic down - stable - back pattern, I believe it applied to old cars (up to F430 / F12 so far) but more recently we've seen 1-2 years old cars selling for more than MSRP, introducing a new pattern with unknown future. The SF90 and 296 have then introduced quick depreciation, so that relying on the past to predict the future has become more difficult, since market evolutions do not seem to reproduce established patterns.

 

Yep @LussoV12fan! I think there's a lot of conflicting motivations/actions, in that I see so many cars for sale after a few years that only have a couple hundred miles on them. I doubt the reason is they all think they will get a Special allocation, rather I think it's more the fear of depreciation if I put miles on it, which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. My impression is that Ferrari owners drive less than 911, AMG GT, Mac, Aston, MC20, R8, and Lambo owners. One could say the comparison is unfair as F cars sit at the top of the auto-pyramid, but it's unfortunate. It's probably the main reason I never pulled the F trigger in the past, as I didn't want to be the guy selling the 458/488 with 15,000 miles on it after three years, and the idea of Not driving it was too painful. My consolation was to buy others on the previous list. But the 296 GTB has me looking to jump off the fence.

 

Great idea @LVP488 , and I'm not entirely sure of the accuracy, but it's all I got, and I wasn't trying to make the data fit my argument by choosing certain F cars. Here's the updated chart...I find it interesting. NOTE: Past performance is not indicative of future results!

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Facepalm.
Personally I love the looks of the 296!

 

Pretty much the new models (F8, SF90, 296 GTB, and Roma) have steep drops the first 3-4 years). Conversely, the F430 only dropped 30% over a decade (call it 3% per year, which is pretty amazing), but that might be influenced by the really high resale price for the manual cars, and it's definitely influenced by the increased starting price of succeeding models. On that point, I know that it was mentioned that future cars priced higher will help float 296 prices up, but I'm not convinced on it. I think at some point, base prices can only go up so fast and the market starts to take notice. I'm not sure Ferrari will be able to inflate the base by say $50,000 on the SC40 or CZ26 (which ever might be the successor to the 296 in 2027), especially as the 296 has lost 25%+ in the first three years--people remember. I feel Porsche has also reached too high, too fast, trying to capitalize on the 911 success--just haven't seen a slow down yet, and all the sought-after models have large ADMs or 1 to 3 year waits (my dealer told me to not even bother trying to get a turbo S allocation and just go to the pre-owned market when they show up).

 

The kitchen is often hot , if you do not like heat don’t go in !

It never ceases to amaze me the repartition in this thread . 433 pages of ‘ The 296 is depreciating and because of this I am not buying or holding off ‘

If those are the factors influencing a buy decision to the greatest extent perhaps the potential purchaser either A. Does not really have the means to enjoy the thrill of a super car B . Does not understand that the majority of cars lose value and even specials do not make the returns that people think when adjusted for inflation and currency or C Is not convinced that enjoyment generally comes at a cost and front row seats cost more than the bleachers even though you are in the same stadium .

 

Probably accurate.

I don’t agree that time is on your side. Every day without the best regular production car ever made is a lost day. Also- there is a natural trade off… more supply = more/ better choices. Lower supply will accompany firmer pricing and fewer buying choices. If you don’t care much about colors and options and care more about paying the least- waiting probably makes sense- but you still forgo current enjoyment.

Every day is a blessing- especially with these cars.