Starting 7th on the grid, with Verstappen and the 2 Mercedes before him, it will be difficult for championship leader Oscar Piastri to progress. The title may be decided today.
Id say with good tyre management and strategy Oscar should move forward: https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/mark-hughes-what-mclaren-is-doing-f1-mexico-gp-red-bull-cannot-match/ --What lies behind that is the unique set of challenges posed by this high-altitude track. Not so much the cooling, power unit and downforce implications of it - they are all easily simulated now we've been coming here for so long. What cannot be answered in advance are questions around track grip and the implications on tyre behaviour. On Friday, Verstappen's Red Bull around a single lap on the soft tyres had an aggressively responsive front end. It was this which gave him his biggest advantage over Norris, particularly through the interconnected Turns 4-5. The McLaren's front end is not as intrinsically as strong as the Red Bull's, but what it does have is fantastic control of rear tyre temperatures. This would be put to good use overnight in tuning a more responsive balance into the McLaren, one which would not necessarily hurt its advantage shown in the long runs of Friday. In those multiple lap runs Verstappen had found that the car which was so nicely balanced over a qualifying lap was killing its rear tyres over a race simulation. There was no way they were going to be able to take such a balance into the race. So significant overnight changes were made to both cars. Red Bull sacrificed some front end response so as not to feed such sudden moments and loads into the rear tyres. McLaren meanwhile decided to lean into its confidence in how good its rear tyre temperature control would be by putting the car a little bit more on the nose - which would hopefully pay it back in qualifying. That's how it played out as Norris took pole by the margin of 0.262 seconds.--
Max Verstappen has ruled out his chances of fighting at the front in the Mexico City Grand Prix unless his rivals “retire". Four-time world champion Verstappen had to settle with fifth place in a difficult qualifying and ended up 0.484 seconds off the pace set by McLaren’s Lando Norris, who stormed to an impressive pole position. The result marked a blow for Verstappen in his incredible comeback bid to win this year’s world championship, with the Dutchman 26 points behind Norris and 40 adrift of leader Oscar Piastri, who starts down in seventh. Verstappen had already outlined his fears that Red Bull would not be able to win in Mexico despite topping Friday practice, and those concerns remain. “If we knew, we would change it and unfortunately we don’t,” Verstappen told Sky Sports F1.
Lewis promised he will be aggressive and racy , as he has nothing to lose per say.. Unless Lando has matured quite a bit, I think he will cause an accident if Lewis were to try to get him, or even Leclere at the first turn, which is a turn with a lot of speed prior braking.
History shows drafts into turn 1 working against the pole-sitter many times. Its not just LH who will be aggressive at all.
run to T1 is absolutely massive. Even a normal start puts advantage in the Ferrari's hands. I'm hoping that Max sacrificed quali speed for race setup instead but the car just looked terrible to drive in it's inputs. I don't think he can do much. Strategy wise he's against both mclaren's, both Ferraris and both Mercedes today.
I'm wondering if max wouldn't work with Ferrari to take points off Mcl if he was not in the fight. Well, maybe not with Hamilton...