Analysis of BaT 456 sales data | FerrariChat
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Analysis of BaT 456 sales data

Discussion in '456/550/575' started by jfm_cdm, Oct 24, 2025.

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  1. jfm_cdm

    jfm_cdm Rookie

    May 18, 2013
    34
    Austin, TX / Corona del Mar, CA
    Full Name:
    Jim
    #1 jfm_cdm, Oct 24, 2025
    I picked up the Verde Mugello 456 that I purchased on BaT about a month ago in Glendale yesterday and drove it back to Corona Del Mar. It has a few minor issues and some definite quirks given it is a Ferrari of that vintage! Will try to do some road time due diligence to document all of them before I get it sorted it out.

    As those of you who follow 456's on BaT know, this had a salvage title so was a bit of a crapshoot. I did have a PPI before bidding and found out details - accident triggered airbag and a replacement airbag sensor could not be located in US. Presumably, that's why it had salvage title, as insurer could not effect road legal repair without it and easier to write off. Seller located a sensor in Italy, but it did take some time. For $59,995, I felt I got a bargain, but was curious how much of one (and if the bidding limit I had in my head was about right), so I took the principal variables I could get from BaT for other sales for 3 years and built a regression model:
    Sale Price = f(mileage, age of car, auto transmission, title issues). Here's what I found:

    Average 6-speed: $169K
    Average auto: $110K

    Mileage: drop about $1 per mile (average mileage about 28K)
    Age: drop/raise about $2400 per year from average (avg year of production 1998)
    Auto trans: $59K less than the 6-speed
    Price discount for title issues: $24K

    Putting the variables for my car in, the projected purchase price would have been about $75,000, so the limit I had in mind was not too far off.

    Factors not considered:
    Blu Swatters color: The two sales North of $200K are both low mileage Swatters cars
    M modification

    Curious if others in the Forum with or considering 456's have thoughts.

    Jim
     
  2. lince

    lince Karting

    Sep 26, 2006
    196
    #2 lince, Oct 25, 2025
    Normally when I do this I include service history, recent service , color interest and special options. In you case I would think the green ads good value but the salvage title should have more impact than the stated $24.000.
     
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  3. DrDweeb

    DrDweeb Karting

    Nov 30, 2013
    172
    #3 DrDweeb, Oct 25, 2025
    Disclaimer: I have not looked at the numbers from BaT, too depressing.

    Normally in such "analyses", it's a good idea to remove the very obvious outliers from the calculations. The blue ones seem weird and a single Schumacher car would skew the results significantly. Personally, I'd remove the salvage title cars, and look at them separately.

    My $0.02
     
    Ferrari55whoa likes this.
  4. Ferrari55whoa

    Ferrari55whoa F1 Rookie
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Dec 21, 2005
    3,486
    Los Gatos, CA
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    Eric
    #4 Ferrari55whoa, Oct 25, 2025
    And in addition….mean vs median analysis

    listen….these are all irrational purchases.

    We have learned a LOT from our brothers (esp @Mirek ) on what the maintenance catch up can look like.

    FWIW if I had the space I would have done what you did @jfm_cdm and pulled the trigger. I wanted to be samesie color 456 buddies with @Aerosurfer ! :cool:
     
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  5. Mirek

    Mirek Formula 3
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    Oct 20, 2019
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    Los Angeles, CA
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    Mirek
    #5 Mirek, Oct 25, 2025
    Agreed. Great buy. Enjoy the car.

    Speaking of maintenance catch-up :) I have been down (primarily) due to massive carbon build up on valve in cylinder #1 causing pre-detonation when at full temp, it starts missing. Combination of crap CA gas and my daily driving habits (puttering around LA) me thinks.

    Shop is going to clean it up best they can w/ BG en lieu of a valve job.
     
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  6. Auraraptor

    Auraraptor F1 World Champ
    Lifetime Rossa Owner

    Sep 25, 2002
    14,244
    MO
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    Omar
    #6 Auraraptor, Oct 25, 2025
    Purchase price is only the entry price.

    Even well sorted cars can have a (very) long list of needs as we all define sorted differently.

    My car (99 w 30k miles by a former member) was very well cared for but still needed 20k+ in service to freshen up....and I am not even done yet. Sadly its just waiting right now as I have more pressing issues to attend to (512TR major not withstanding....)
     
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  7. Aerosurfer

    Aerosurfer Formula 3
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    Nov 21, 2020
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    Indianapolis
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    Nick
    #7 Aerosurfer, Oct 25, 2025
    Verde Mugello will grow on you! Its a very nice green, and also quite light dependant on how it stands out.

    Forget the average prices, a few as @DrDweeb pointed out, a few outliers skew those numbers up and not really indicative of the market. 4 seat Ferrari are terrible investments. Just enjoy them. If your car has good airbag modules, that's fantastic it was able to be repaired. Hope you have many trouble free miles. Don't count costs, just maintain it as best you can.
     
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  8. jfm_cdm

    jfm_cdm Rookie

    May 18, 2013
    34
    Austin, TX / Corona del Mar, CA
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    Jim
    #8 jfm_cdm, Oct 26, 2025 at 4:53 PM
    The $24K comes from the regression analysis, but small sample - only 5 of the 74 in the analysis had salvage or similarly flagged titles. Standard error of parameter estimate is ~$12.5K, so call the range [$13.5K, $36.5K] on the +/- 1 s.d. Agree still think it's low, but curious if parted out what the floor is if you've got a decent engine.
     
    lince likes this.
  9. jfm_cdm

    jfm_cdm Rookie

    May 18, 2013
    34
    Austin, TX / Corona del Mar, CA
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    Jim
    #9 jfm_cdm, Oct 26, 2025 at 5:00 PM
    Ohhh yes! Think I put ~$45K into my 512BB after I bought it at Pebble and it was in the shop for 4 months waiting on a new radiator, the carbs to be rebuilt and other parts. You don't buy an old Ferrari and expect it to be a DD!
     
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  10. chris_columbia

    chris_columbia Formula Junior
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    Feb 5, 2008
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    Columbia MD
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    Chris
    #10 chris_columbia, Oct 31, 2025 at 6:01 PM
    Those average numbers seem high. Are you averaging 456 and 456M together? A 456 and 456M automatic are worth about the same but that is definitely not true of the manuals. An M manual is worth way more than a non-M manual due to rarity.

    Unlike many other cars, many of the 456's haven't shifted up in the last 10 years. A 30k mile 456 auto in a "normal color" was a $60k car in 2015. It's a $50k car now.
     

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