Grim Reaper's $100,000,000 Market Call Thread

The only reason I post this, is because I care about a few friends here that I will not see soon (so beware) and I am the traveling quite a bit.
This is not to be considered any advise to do anything, nor am I looking to make money off of anyone here.

I believe the commenced wave 5 down in the equity markets at (DJIA) 13,132, last week.
I noted the top at that time for some others.
I suspect it will bottom out in just under seven weeks and should present a good buying opportunity.
Assuming the Fed. does not pump in over another 1T into the system and alter the market again.
Just a guess, this week I suspect that it will trade down into Wends. early morning, trade up through Fri. 10:30 EST, then down again.
Oil June future contracts opened up at $150 and were on fire Friday. It is, what it is.
This will pressure all levels of the economy, hurt a lot of people and fold more businesses.

Note: In the last two years, I called the top in the real estate market, the credit market/alternative market (SIV, SPV, CMO (GSE, Alt-A, Sub-Prime), CDO & CLO (Derivitive), bond insurance and equity market.
Timing tops is always the hardest to call.
I also predicted the bottom in the Ten Year T Market.
Colin and I were laughing about it at SR.

I suspect that we may have several Insurance Carriers, Banks, Funds and Broker Dealers roll over here in the next couple of months. Reality is, if the Federal Reverve, SEC, FINRA (NASD/NYSE), Controller of Currency and Treasury Department were doing their job, MOST of these firms would have been shut down in twenty-four hours LAST year for not meeting Mark-To-Market and Reserve requirements. Additionally most "firms," were and have not been reporting their assets correctly as to the current price they would bring on the open market (ABX, in the mortgage case). It is ironic that the Federal Reserve is doing exactly what it did during 1929-1945. Pasing the buck to the taxpayer. The possibilty has been raised more than once recently that U.S. government debt may get reduced to A from AAA. That would result in significant repatriations (pull out) and increase in interest on government borrowing.

CYA Cover Your Assets and be safe.

On Topic

 

Off Topic

Update, half time report.
First 1,200 points off the DJIA have printed since I wrote this.
Oil is at 134.75
Ten year is up approximately 75 BPS.
Paulson has proposed revamping the entire regulatory system as of yesterday.

In answer to your statement...Harry...forgive me, and I did not see it earlier. No one is forcing you to read anything and no one here, is old enough to have lived through an economic cycle such as this. If I saw anyone (especially my friends) that was about to be hit by a car at SR, I would without hesitation push them out of the way regardless of possible injury to myself. This is no different as I can see happening. Not saying or doing something is the safe and non considerate thing to do. I have been put to that test many times and people that know me know that. My last co-management agreement with a Madison Avenue Bank stipulated a nine figure compensation plan for myself. While it would be difficult to obtain such an agreement in the current environment, I can assure you my knowledge w/ ten various financial licenses are being utilized when needed. If choose to pro bono my time here with a post (which was right on money again), that is my choice.

The only question you need to ask yourself is what you are going to do today and everyday to be a blessing to those around you. A member of my church and an older friend of mine heads up the Stanford Linear Accelerator. He has been working on developing another accelerator (24b global project for over ten years). Sufficive to say, he is brilliant. He would tell you his single biggest regret is not passing on all the knowledge he has in his head.

God Bless,

B

OT

 

I know what you are attempting to say, not that it is irrelevant/right/wrong, I just did it differently than you or anyone else might have.
Again, for my point was to get message across to some people I know and care about.
Nothing else. Some of those people linger here.
This particular time in history will be, well remembered.
As I already stated before, I am not interested in starting a thread. Nor do I have the time and nor was there any advice. In fact, I stated that.
This is hardly someone's boardroom. I do not think anyone here would agree with that assessment or would admit to it.
I would happy to hear what you would have to say about my teeth assuming that is your field of expertise.
If you have any more questions or statements send me a p.m..
Have a Fantastic Weekend.

 

Displacements create opportunity.
It was the biggest decline for a June since 1930.

Significant double and triple digit gains for some were made on this downside.
Good money managers make significant double digit returns every year no matter the market direction.

Unfortunately most investment vehicles are predicated via their prospectus to one direction and very heavy distribution fees.
EG. They generally pay brokers 3-8.5 points plus additional fees, for selling you canned spam. This currently represents 82% of all consumer transactions.

"Main street," will feel the effects of this decline, twelve-eighteen months later.

Although, I think it's early for a bottom for a number of technical reasons, the timing is correct.
It remains to be seen whether it will go lower.
Frankly for technical reasons and long term support I wish it would.
It leaves a lot to be desired. In fact, I really do not like it and have tight stops.

None the less, computer controlled Institutional buying is occurring here at the bottom of seven.
The algorithm, in the institutional software, the institutions use (not available to public), has indicated what the public would refer to as buy signal (It is actually selling exhaustion) as of early July 1.

Good luck.
Back to work for me.

 

I am not sure if they can be relocated. I will no longer be posting in this regard, on this thread.