As new year approaches, the attached is offered to anyone who is interested. Image Unavailable, Please Login
John, that is really putting things in a very clear perspective. Thank you! Happy New Year... Alberto
I don't think the large number of low-mileage cars represents fraud. If you look a the average mileage it goes from about 30K at 8 yrs or so to 50K now. People used them as part-time real cars until they were 8 years old or so then progressively less as time went on or they sat with some problem or other intermittently. Wasn't there a thread a while back where many people said they drive their cars a few hundred miles a year? That basically makes an imperceptible change in the mileage on that graph even over a decade.
Hi John, The charts tend to show that prices are on the rise, something I have believed for a while based on new, enthusiest buyers that keep entering the market ( ie - look at the people posting in this section vs two years ago - for the longest time, we were all the same grouop...today, the majority of posters weren't here two years ago). The charts also show that fewer cars came to market in 2011 and prices are stronger. Does this mean it is a supply and demand issue or ???? I can't answer these questions. You have assumed that dealers taking "pricing" to a "POA" level means prices are dropping, but I still believe this can mean movement either way. The European/UK market seems to move in a different rythem than the US market, sometimes leading and sometimes lagging. In the most recent FML, almost all the cars advertised are now sold or gone from the market. Cars that hit the market are either testing the upper-limits or gone fast. Anything under-market is gone almost immediately. I toyed with buying a "great buy" car recently and by the time I decided to get serious, it was gone. This isn't a car that even really hit the full advertising spectrum. My point being, is the deals are few and far between , and there are a huge amount of people waiting to snap them up. People looking for drivers seem to be in the majority, and there are very few cars from the MAJOR needs cars to the HIGHLY restored cars. The best cars clearly will bring great numbers. The basketcase cars aren't nearly as common as they were two years ago. I think they still exist, but I think the people that bought them aren't sellers. Thoughts?
I have found the "restored" cars tend to have more questionable mileage readings.... I am not alledging fraud, but it is easier for it to happen. Some restorors rest odometers, and that isn't strange or crazy. Just like a fresh paint job always causes me to asks LOTS of questions, fresh resto's do the same. More "original" cars with less stuff updated, although not high on the HIGH PRICED list, means more to me. At least it is much easier to sort through some other owners sales pitch.
It's been a funny year. I've been collating this stuff for years now but still feel no more confident calling the market. One problem is the fact that qlmost every commentator has an axe to grind; Find me a dealer who says the market has peaked! Firstly the "POA" thing: I actually assume the opposite; in a strongly rising market POA means expensive. (only when the market falls does POA mean "fire sale") Some of the top end dealers go POA and others just put up the high screen prices. The key question is of course how much actually gets paid. From those people who very kindly tell me what they actualy paid, it seems that around a 5-10% discount to the asking price has become about right. (I exclude this data from the analysis because I can't verify it and it'd bias the sample). We have seen the last few "bring out your dead" sales at auction, where ropey cars needing restoration are polished up and offered with an aspirational reserve. These were the cars that failed to sell. What's really strange is the fact that the most expensive car sold at auction is now sitting in a dealer's facility; It was a 1 owner, unrestored car sold by Bonhams at the Goodwood Revival. It's now POA at a dealer near me. The data that is most revealing is the "time to sell" data (which I haven't put up because it's too long winded to explain). It seems that cars either fly straight away or takes years to sell. There's at least on car that' been for sale for 2 years plus. My impression is that all the very best cars are being held tightly and those that come available are often due to bereavement or financial distress. Some dealers are certainly doing very aggressive SOR (sale or return) marketing campaigns on behalf of clients, but why wouldn't you if you don't have to finance the stock? Overall I'd say the market is somewhat over-heated, but nothing like as much as in 1989. a 5-10% fall would make it look sensible, rather than the 50-70% drop in 1990.
You might be right, but if you were wouldn't we expect to see that there were always the same proportion of low mileage cars around? My observation is that as prices rise, the variance of the mileage of cars offered for sale increases; i.e there are more low mileage cars. Given the age of these cars and that they were the cheap "Ferrari" (let's not go there) of their day, We'd expect to see a few 100k plus cars. To date, we have seen precisely none. Conversly maybe higher prices do drag out lower mileage cars. I'm not sure.
Lets get to the "blunt" end of this........How easy is it for someone to disconnect the speedo drive on these cars if they want to? How many of these cars show the Actual mileage covered. even if the MOT (in the UK) certificates tally year to year it means nothing as the speedo could have been disconnected for part of the year and then reconnected to put some miles on before the next MOT is due! Personally if i were to buy another of these or any classic car which had been restored i would be more interested in overall condition and seeing and scrutinising every reciept for either labour or parts used to restore it. The mileage then becomes almost irrelevant.
Having been in the market this year as a buyer, and having looked at about 10 of the 20 that came to the market in the UK , a pattern soon emerged for me which said that the cars with little mileage between MOT's generally had major issues which needed sorting.The cars which had been used were in far better order and drove much better. Often the cost of fixing/restoring plus the purchase price far exceeded the cost of a ready to go car. This is reflected in the low sales rate at auction for low/average grade cars. If I were looking to buy another Dino, it would be preferable to view a car that has done a few thousand miles each year over the past 2-3 years, been maintained accordingly, and showing a higher mileage than an unused shiney garage queen. I would expect to pay more for the higher mileage car. I think the low mileage shown on many of the cars in the market place should be taken with a pinch of salt. They may have lost miles 25 years ago, but they still lost them. Don't be afraid of high milers. The best Dino I have seen this year was at a FOC track day at Brands Hatch, superb in all ways, being used on the track, and showing over 100k miles.
This will always be true because the cost of work performed is less than the value added to a car. But not everyone who would like to own a Dino has $200K lying around to buy a perfect car. And not everyone wants a perfect car because then you can't drive it without destroying the perfection that you paid so much for. Hence imperfect cars change hands. Personally I am surprised that people are willing to buy cars at auction with no chance to examine maintenance / repair paperwork, no chance to drive the car or get a PPI. If someone were to buy my car they could look back over paperwork back to the restoration in 1986. That and a PPI and you would know what you were buying. Otherwise it's Russian Roulette.
I am obviously biased, but I would be surprised if Dinos go down noticeably long-term. I think they are still underappreciated. But then I look at 250 2+2s, PF Coupes, etc and wonder why anyone would want one, and 330 GTCs leave me cold, so I guess I don't represent the market. The Dino is one of the most beautiful cars ever made and long-term (50 years from now) will be appreciated when the others are not.
This is true of newer cars but when a car is 40-50 years old its history can incorporate periods of "queenliness" and regular use. The whole context of a car's history is difficult to summarise in an analysis of an aggregated data set and it's simply unfair to talk about specific examples on the web. Dino's are a bugger to restore properly for a host of reasons that are eloquently attested to on this part of this site; However, in general, other things being equal, low mileage and low ownership is, rightly or wrongly, correlated to higher price.
The attached is fitted by eye, but is my best guess of market trends over the long term and the justification for a 5-10% market fall. Image Unavailable, Please Login
Me too! Pantdino!... I think Dinos are one of the most beautiful cars. Mine is locked up and is not for sale at market prices. I have owned mine since 1984. Time will tell on value.
