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360 prices in 1 year

Discussion in '360/430' started by scycle2020, Aug 24, 2004.

  1. scycle2020

    scycle2020 F1 Rookie

    Jan 26, 2004
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    not to beat a dead horse...but now that we have seen a picture of the supposed 430, possibly due out in 05 as an 06, what will happen to the 360 coupe and spider prices when the 430 comes out?.. i figure 02-03 spiders are currently selling for 190-210k and the coupes 150-180k....your expert opinions please
     
  2. f355spider

    f355spider F1 World Champ
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    May 29, 2001
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    If one were to look back on recent history and what the 360 launch did to 355 prices, should be a good indicator.
     
  3. Dino

    Dino Karting

    Nov 3, 2003
    116
    San Diego
    Surely will drop like the 355 did when 360's dominated the new F-car market the past few years. It is inevitable with every new model & not a bad thing.

    Dino
     
  4. damcgee

    damcgee Formula 3

    Feb 23, 2003
    1,864
    Mobile, AL
    Maybe the 360 will be floating around 75k when I get done with law school --- that would be sweet!!
     
  5. SrfCity

    SrfCity F1 Veteran

    Nov 1, 2003
    9,842
    Orange County, CA
    Things will naturally soften but I think it will be a natural progression. The people who have been in say a 355 price range will want to step up to a 360 but still unable to afford a 430. So I think that 360 demand and inaccessability of a 430 will keep things aloft for a while. Any more accurate info and I'll have to consult my crystal balls.
     
  6. GaryReed

    GaryReed F1 Rookie
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    Feb 9, 2002
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    With almost 10,000 360s produced since 1999, I think they are going to take a real dive when the new models start shipping and all those 360 trade-ins hit the market.

    '99 coupes will be selling in the $70s

    Currently there are almost -300- 360s for sale on Dupont Registry and that's just the beginning..... wait till next year.
     
  7. Esprit

    Esprit Karting

    Jan 26, 2004
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  8. 911Fan

    911Fan Formula 3

    Apr 15, 2004
    1,291
    Southern California
    Rough guide - 1000 new 360s per year are sold in the US.

    fwiw, I don't expect 360 prices to start their steep descent until year 2 of 430 production. This is based on what dealers have told me about what happened to 355 prices when the 360 came out.

    Oddly, I have been told that 355 prices actually bumped up slightly during the first year of the 360. But I wasn't following the market in those days to know this first hand.
     
  9. GaryReed

    GaryReed F1 Rookie
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    Yep... believe it or not! That's a lot of 360s for the world.

    Here's a quote from the email notice that I received today from the Ferrari Owner's newsletter announcement, promoting new 430.

    "Expectations are undoubtedly high for the new berlinetta. After all, the 360 Modena has proved to be Ferrari’s most successful mid-engined car ever, with 9,933 coupés built since the model’s launch in 1999. "

    Ferrari also built over 10,000 Testarossas (including 512TR & M).

    Have you checked the price of a 1985-1987 TR lately?
     
  10. Prancing 12

    Prancing 12 Formula 3

    May 11, 2004
    2,292
    The long way home
    If the 430 launch impacts the market like the 360 launch did, the initially, later 360 prices will shoot up for a while and early models will hold strong.

    I have DuPont Registries sitting around from back when the 360 came out and you could really see the 355 prices increase. When the first few 360s came on the market (mostly euros), the prices were in the low 200s. Over a couple months, 99 F1 Spiders (the latest and greatest 355) crept up from the 140s to 199 asking prices. I'm not sure how many ended up sold at this price, but that's where the "asking" was at.

    My theory is that the new model gets people excited again and alot of people want to play but can't always pay. So instead they have to buy the last great model. There's sufficient demand to atleast bump the prices. Also, as the market takes time to settle on where the 430 will be, the last model becomes a "well... it is only a year older and a body style, it can't be worth that much less". So the last model floats under the new one for a while until the 430 becomes more "common", probably atleast a full year to start settling down.
     
  11. SrfCity

    SrfCity F1 Veteran

    Nov 1, 2003
    9,842
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    Makes sense and goes with what I was trying to say.
     
  12. paulb

    paulb Rookie

    Oct 31, 2003
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    When looking at the 355 price increases shortly after the 360 came out I think you need to take into consideration the economy at the time - it was very good.

    There were a lot of dot com millionaires with money burning holes in their pockets. Demand went up, supplies were about the same so prices increased accordingly.

    I doubt you will see any increase in the 360 prices when then 430 comes out. As someone already noted, Dupont Registry has almost 300 hundred 360's for sale. 6 months ago there were about 220 for sale.

    I predict a minor price adjustment and then a steady decline of about $12K per year (from MSRP) with depreciation flattening out around 45-50% of original MSRP when the car is about 6-7 years old.

    Paul
     
  13. W00dEar

    W00dEar F1 Rookie
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    no offense but stop dreaming.
    maybe in 2008 it will be in 70's.
     
  14. cab7104

    cab7104 Karting

    Mar 25, 2004
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    I think that the prices will not drop that much...seeing as 355 are still going for about 115 or so, and they are like 10 years old. I think that the price drop will be slower, because there is not a gaurentee that the 430 will be as big a hit. It is not as much of a market departure as the 360 was from the 355. Just my .02

    Craig
     
  15. Hubert888

    Hubert888 F1 Veteran
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    May 14, 2003
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    if u are worrying about the depreciation in your 360 just because the 430 will be coming out.....u bought the car for the wrong reasons.

    just drive the freakin' car and dont worrry about it. if u sooo strapped for cash, then dont even buy a F car!
     
  16. ghost

    ghost F1 Veteran
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    Dec 10, 2003
    9,836
    Singapore
    I agree with this - there is just way too much supply out there. Already you are starting to see downward pressure on 360 values, with low mileage MY99 360's trading hands for between $110k - $120k. Assuming a Fall 2005 introduction of the F430, you will probably be able to get an average condition MY99 360 for around $100K by end-2005 or 1Q2006.

    I wasn't following the market at the time, but I would postulate that part of the increase in the prices of F355's (to the extent this happened on a wide-scale basis, and wasn't just a regional phenomenon) was related to the controversial aesthetics of the 360. Some potential buyers were absolutely appaled by the styling, and decided to jump into a 355 instead of a 360. this created that wonderful economic force known as a supply/demand imbalance, which resulted in higher 355 prices.
     
  17. mac59

    mac59 Rookie

    Nov 15, 2003
    46
    The 355 was produced in lower numbers and is a MUCH better looking car! It will hold it's value a lot better than the 360. A good 328 is almost the same as 348.
     
  18. ILuv4Res

    ILuv4Res F1 Veteran
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    Aug 8, 2002
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    I'm not trying to hijack this thread, but I am curious what downward pressure on the 360 (if that happens) will cause other model prices to do (ie 348 & 355's)?

    Since some have stated that once an F-car looses about 50% of its original retail sticker price the depreciation curve slows. Right now, it seems like 348's are at about 50% and 355's are at about 60-70% of sticker. If the 360 tanks, will that cause the 355's to tank, which then causes the 348 to drop??? (Although I am curious for discussion reasons, I am also selfishly interested in the opinions here to see if I should I sell my 348 now & hope for a steal on a 355 or even a 360, or will my 348 still hold its value fairly well????)

    Correct me if I am wrong, but I am under the impression that the 355 was the first mass produced F-car, only to have the 360 more massed produced.

    Lastly, what is the sticker price of the new 430? I have to believe that the higher the sticker price of a new model, the higher the older models will still sell for.
     
  19. judge4re

    judge4re F1 World Champ

    Apr 26, 2003
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    No, the 250 GT Pinin Farina Coupe was the first mass produced Ferrari.

    I think time will tell, but the 328 will be more expensive than the 348 and 355 models from a collectability standpoint. I still think there is downside on the 348's. Ferrari has made a lot of 360's, its not as rare a car as everyone thinks and when it falls out of favor (read: when there is a 2 year waiting list for the F430) its going to drop pretty quick.

    There are a lot more exotic cars out there now and they will stay high in value only if there is a secondary market to support them. If not, keys from a lear jet folks.
     
  20. W00dEar

    W00dEar F1 Rookie
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    I know what you mean, but it does not really work like that.
    Usually there is a "bottom", it's like a stock, it will stablize once it hits like level, simply because lots of ppl are willing to buy in at that price level.
    Thus the price drop will not be equal on all models. For example an early model 360(130k) is about $50k more than an early modeal 355(80k), years later, when 360 loses another 30k to hit 100k, 355 does not necessarily lose 30k as well to hit 50k, simply because ALOT MORE people can afford the price level at 60-65k but not a 100k 360. Thus you will see the later model tha are more expense to begin with will tend to lose more than the earlier model.
     
  21. Texas Forever

    Texas Forever Four Time F1 World Champ
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    Apr 28, 2003
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    The main problem with this question is determining the point of beginning. 360 Spiders, for example, have routinely sold for $25k over sticker. (In some cases way more.) So when measuring depreciation, where are you starting from?

    I know of a 2000 360 F1 coupe with 1,600 miles that sold for $135K. The sticker on this car was $150k. For a car to depreciate only $15k in 4 years is amazing. But in 2000, some coupes were going for, say, $30k over sticker. So has this car depreciated 10% if you use $150k as a benchmark or 25% if you use $180k as the starting number?

    DrTax
     
  22. 911Fan

    911Fan Formula 3

    Apr 15, 2004
    1,291
    Southern California
    Unless you're one of the favored ones, I'm guessing you'll have to pay 200-250K for a 430 coupe during the first couple years of production (ie, thru 07 if the rumors are correct). And there will only be few cars on the market at that price. If you want to buy a V8 Ferrari during that time, the next best thing will be a 360. That will keep the demand up and the prices relatively high for all of the lower models.

    If you believe the 100K for a 360 crowd, there would be a $100K gap between the cheapest 430 and the most expensive 360 (both coupes) and that doesn't seem reasonable. My prediction is that late model 360s will hover around 150K until 430s start selling for less than MSRP.

    That's my theory and I'm sticking to it!
     
  23. sjb509

    sjb509 Guest

    My $.02
    Not to muddy the waters more than they are, but 2 or 3 years from now, how is the 360 going to be viewed? The 355 is almost universally loved, while the 348 has its advocates and detractors. It will be interesting if the 360 has this same difference of opinion among potential used car buyers.

    Another major thing, IMO, that will begin to affect resale prices is the cars coming off warranty. A driver of an F1-equipped car without warranty would be wise to have a special bank account with about $25k sitting just in case the thing decides to grenade. However, I do agree with previous posters that the aftermarket will see a demand for the non-dealer maintenance on the paddle-shifters and work to fill that demand.

    Getting back to the example of 328/348/355, it seems that the typical selling price of each model is somewhat related, yet the difference between each strata of cars is also determined by the perception of that particular model. '89 328s are often the same price as an '89 348. A good 348 is headed for the upper $40k territory, while the good 328 seems to also have more or less stabilized around a slightly lower $40k-ish number. The 355 will never be $40k, IMO, simply because as someone else mentioned there are too many buyers willing to pay $50-55k for the car.

    So what does this have to do with the 360? If the 355B stabilizes with a bottom around $50k, there is no way the 360 coupe will eventually bottom lower than that. Instead, I would guess $65-70k in todays dollars as a bottom, but that will be many years off (like 2011 or later). In the short term who knows, I've never figured out why someone would pay $40k over sticker for a mass-produced 360 Spider in the first place.
     
  24. Gary Res

    Gary Res Formula Junior

    Apr 23, 2004
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    I disagree with some of the points that you made. For example, a 1989, 328 GTS, low mileage, mint condition trades for about $55,000. When new it went for $75,000. That would mean that the car retained almost 75% of its value (after 15 yrs!) and a much more inexpensive car to maintain then other Ferraris. A 1999 355 went for about $140,000-$150,000. and today they could be bought for about $100,000. Thats approx. the same % of resale value of, for example the 328. There is one Huge difference. The 355's are coming off warranty, and they are more expensive to maintain (better car though). If maintainence stays the same, and it will, the value will definitly go down. Don't be shocked when 1999 355's in 5 years are trading for about $70,000. and lower as time goes on because they were considered "everyday drivers", which means they will have many more miles on them, and there are plenty to choose from. As opposed to the 328, do a search on DuPont Registry at any given time and there are only maybe 10 328's, there are always many more 355's available. Supply and Demand. As for how the car enthusiats will view the 360 in yrs to come? One of the sexiest looking cars on the planet. Its a very special car which does most things perfectly. The attention to detail is outstanding (engine for example). Way ahead of its time!
    My oldest is 6 yrs old (have 4 kids). As soon as he is able to sit in the front seat of an airbag equiped car, I will buy a 360. The 430 is running way up market, which should help the 360 retain most of its value for at least the foreseeable future. By the way, I really love the 355 too. Really is a great car.
     
  25. Challenge

    Challenge Formula 3

    Sep 27, 2002
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    Only one problem with that scenario: inflation. Assuming a nominal 3% inflation rate since 1989, that $75000 adjusted to today's dollars is $116,848. So it retained about 47% of its original value. There seems to be something to this 45-50% thing...
     

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