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458 458 as an investment - Silly survey

Discussion in '458 Italia/488/F8' started by mar76, Nov 6, 2022.

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  1. mar76

    mar76 Karting

    Mar 17, 2022
    50
    #1 mar76, Nov 6, 2022
    Consider an imaginary dealership with following cars in stock:
    - one SpecialeA @1million dollars
    - two Speciales @500k each
    - four Italias @250k each
    All cars are used, in good condition, and spec-ed just enough to please most people.

    I give you $1m, and ask you to spend ALL that money, keep the vehicle(s) for TEN years, and sell them immediately afterwards. The sale proceeds will go to your bank account.

    Which car(s) would you get?

    Note: All storage, maintenance, and transaction costs are covered. However, you won't be able to drive the cars yourself, in fact you won't even be able to admire them during the 10 year period. So your personal preferences are out of the equation -- it's a pure capital gains question.


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  2. plastique999

    plastique999 F1 Veteran
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    #2 plastique999, Nov 6, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2022
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  3. greyboxer

    greyboxer F1 World Champ

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    #3 greyboxer, Nov 6, 2022
    Whats the point ? If you want capital gains buy something other than cars to sit & rot
     
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  4. Kent Adams

    Kent Adams F1 Rookie
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    #4 Kent Adams, Nov 6, 2022
    The 2 Speciales without a doubt. The upside for the Aperta's I don't think would be as high. The Italia, the one I personally own, is a high production car so the upside over a 10 period is minimal.
     
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  5. Snewton94024

    Snewton94024 Formula Junior

    Apr 24, 2015
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    #5 Snewton94024, Nov 6, 2022
    Agreed.
    What the point?
     
  6. Viperjoe

    Viperjoe F1 Rookie
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    #6 Viperjoe, Nov 6, 2022
    Just fun, mental gymnastics.

    I’d go for two Speciales.
     
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  7. Eilig

    Eilig F1 Rookie
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    #7 Eilig, Nov 6, 2022
    NOT in context of "investment." But if making that choice, 2 Speciale coupes is a no-brainer.
     
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  8. mkraft3003

    mkraft3003 Formula 3
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    #8 mkraft3003, Nov 6, 2022
    As Thornton Melon once asked, is this dealership located in Fantasyland?
     
  9. KZEVO

    KZEVO Formula Junior

    Jul 25, 2021
    292
    #9 KZEVO, Nov 6, 2022
    2 speciales.
     
  10. Stams

    Stams Formula Junior
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    #10 Stams, Nov 6, 2022
    So the question I am seeing is: Will the rarity and open top of the SA allow for more gains than 2 more common coupes? I will go against the grain and take the SA, worried that 10 years may not be enough time.
     
  11. KZEVO

    KZEVO Formula Junior

    Jul 25, 2021
    292
    #11 KZEVO, Nov 6, 2022
    Only time will tell but given how much the speciale is revered and even recently when compared to current NA examples, i wont be surprised if it reaches $1M in the next 10 years (and I feel i am being conservative).

    I was talking to my dealer and being relatively young to the brand (in terms of purchase history), the dealer was concerned that if i trade up to the speciale from the 458 i may miss out on experiencing other great cars including the pista, 812, sf90, 296 etc. i see his point but then again it pains me that they keep rising in value and i may get priced out if i dont act…fomo perhaps…not sure when the next run up in values will be but it will come…
     
  12. SD455TA

    SD455TA Formula Junior

    Sep 11, 2021
    584
    Western Suburbs of Chicago
    #12 SD455TA, Nov 6, 2022
    I don't get why they SNARK on you for posing something that, if nothing else, is fun to conjecture on, or stomp on depending on who you are. I like your question , it makes you think, seems to me that THEY can't, or won't or worse.
     
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  13. mar76

    mar76 Karting

    Mar 17, 2022
    50
    #13 mar76, Nov 6, 2022
    The point is to compare the proportion of speculative vs. intrinsic value embedded in those car prices. Leaving out other factors.

    Your only concern is which 458 the other guy will prefer in ten years time.




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  14. 3POINT8

    3POINT8 F1 Veteran
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    #14 3POINT8, Nov 7, 2022
    2 speciales
     
  15. Kent Adams

    Kent Adams F1 Rookie
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    #15 Kent Adams, Nov 7, 2022
    Agreed. I think some people are just too rigid in their thinking.
     
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  16. Need4Spd

    Need4Spd F1 Veteran

    Feb 24, 2007
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    #16 Need4Spd, Nov 7, 2022
    This is almost a Donald Osborne question on Jay Leno’s Garage (except Jay would never buy a Ferrari), or a probability question on a Statistics exam.
    I’d go with the Speciale A because of its rarity. If you hope the A would rise by 50%, you’d need both Speciales to rise by 50% to get the same return. If there is a 20% chance for each, the probability of getting both Speciales sold for a 50% gain would be 4%. Thinking about how they need to sold, at auction, and even when mostly identical cars are each sold at the same auction, they rarely bring the same price.


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  17. FE458IT

    FE458IT Formula Junior

    Jul 17, 2013
    445
    Toronto
    #17 FE458IT, Nov 7, 2022
    2 speciales.

    Can't see that car not being a must have in most future garages with past classic ferraris.

    458 Italia too.
     
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  18. ipsedixit

    ipsedixit Formula 3

    Aug 21, 2014
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    #18 ipsedixit, Nov 7, 2022
    My brain hurts.

    I'm not that good at math.

    Can I just keep the 1M and have you check back with me in 10 years?
     
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  19. RCorsa

    RCorsa Formula 3
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    Apr 5, 2014
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    #19 RCorsa, Nov 8, 2022
    @plastique999 all white collection is sick and matches the beautiful so cal home Would be a hard maintenance chore to have all that white in the rainy northwest but I do love it That said I think he has a matching f12 TDF which imo the ultimate collector car and my absolute bucket list car.

    To think I passed on a speciale A allocation has me kicking myself. I think it is the most attractive option in this scenario. Super limited, last of the NA v8, plus a spider, no question will be worth the most in 10 years (assuming we don’t get hit by that huge planet killer meteor)
     
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  20. Sargepug

    Sargepug Formula Junior

    Mar 23, 2020
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    #20 Sargepug, Nov 8, 2022
    2 Speciales, because i'd rather have 2 non vert cars to roll the dice on, then all eggs in one basket w/ a single aperta. W/ an aperta, you will only appeal to a vert crowd and you also lose the amazing eye candy, with mostly all the CF on the engine and in the bay concealed...
    Just me 2c!
     
  21. plastique999

    plastique999 F1 Veteran
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    #21 plastique999, Nov 8, 2022
    Many many thanks!

    Image Unavailable, Please Login


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  22. mar76

    mar76 Karting

    Mar 17, 2022
    50
    #22 mar76, Nov 14, 2022
    Thank you all. Here are the results:
    - 1/3 of respondents would pick an Aperta
    - 2/3 prefer a pair of Speciale coupes
    No-one would buy an Italia for sole investment purposes.

    High production numbers are certainly a turn-off: There are ~15x more Italias+Spiders than there are Speciales. Which are themselves 5x more numerous than Apertas. At first sight, those ratios are more pronounced than today's price ratios, so scarcity isn't fully priced in and Aperta is relatively cheap. However, the picture gets more complicated if we account for fun factor.

    Specifically, let X be the price component coming from NET car enjoyment during the next ten years (which you don't get at all due to our survey rules, yet still exists). Cars' forward investment values are respectively 1-X, 1/2-X, and 1/4-X millions. Regardless of X, value ratios now look more consistent with production ratios. Of course, those quantities are not directly comparable, and not all 458 procure the same enjoyment/costs, but you get the idea.

    What is certain though, is that 10 years from now, Ferrari's history will be longer and will comprise many more cars (especially at the current release pace). Collectors wishing to own every milestone of the mid-engine line will face tough choices, like between EITHER a Speciale OR an Italia embodying all the 458 highlights (last NA, Pinifarina, sound, etc.) plus an F8 Tributo.

    Another factor is typicality of Italia design: (triple exhaust, leaf-shaped hood), which IMO is slightly bolder than the Speciales'. Future collectors and enthusiasts will reward singularity and risk-taking.

    And if 2032 economy happens to be buoyant, Italia premia could actually skyrocket. Everyone will board any ship to get rid of their cash. Once all Speciales are taken Italias will be hunted down even though they were not intended as investments in the first place.

    On the other hand, Italia owners will have a hard time liquidating their inventories during a recession. The high production numbers will cause a glut. Now, one might conclude the flight to quality will similarly favor the scarcer Aperta over the coupe. However, potential buyers will be in a position of power and likely also more savvy about F-cars in general. I think the intrinsic qualities of the Aperta compared to the coupe might no longer justify a 2x price difference. Meanwhile, the super-rich might look for Monza or La Ferrari bargains instead.

    As a conclusion, to hedge my risks across the various scenarios I would pick one Speciale and two Italias.

    Perhaps I'll buy back one of the Italias immediately afterwards, and keep it for the rest of my life together with the cash.




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  23. Bas

    Bas Four Time F1 World Champ

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    #23 Bas, Nov 14, 2022
    Exactly.
     
  24. willcrook

    willcrook F1 Rookie
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    #24 willcrook, Nov 14, 2022
    2x spec's
     
  25. LightGuy

    LightGuy Four Time F1 World Champ
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    #25 LightGuy, Nov 16, 2022
    3 x 16Ms
    ;)
     
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