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488 Pista / 6,000 units being produced?...?

Discussion in '458 Italia/488/F8' started by GoHardGT3RS, Mar 1, 2020.

  1. GoHardGT3RS

    GoHardGT3RS Karting

    Jan 1, 2015
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    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4325637-how-to-destroy-great-global-brand-and-cult-of-ferrari


    "Given these factors, Ferrari reserved the allocations for these cars to their better customers. Without question, this has helped. However, the significant upcycle in exotic cars witnessed from 2005 to 2015 increased the number of potential customers who started buying regular range vehicles to fall into the factory’s good graces with the hope of gaining an allocation. The expectation with this strategy is that the profits they could make on one of the special versions will more than offset any losses they take on regular range vehicles. We are not saying that customers do not enjoy these cars, but rather, that they would buy less of them without the promise of the valuable special version allocation. Furthermore, the ultimate keys to Ferrari’s promised land is the allure of an allocation to the company’s even more limited hypercars (explained in greater detail below): top-dollar sports cars embedding the latest racing technology, which the company historically introduced every 10 years. While this is a perfectly good strategy showing the company’s success at managing supply, it demonstrates how sensitive the business model is to the perception of exclusivity, investment potential, and residual values of the special series.

    The risk is, therefore, producing too many “special” series to the point that they become less “special.” Once customers stop believing that the allocation has value, they will stop buying extra cars in order to receive access to the special series allocation. While we are concerned that Ferrari is already ramping production and introducing too many models for residual values and exclusivity to hold, what is more concerning is the ramp in special series cars. Ferrari’s production has gone from 5,000 to 10,000 but the special series has gone from 1,200 to 6,000 for the core mid-engine model."
     
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  3. AlfistaPortoghese

    AlfistaPortoghese Moderator
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    Nothing is sacred anymore.

    Ramping up production, SUVs and an almost democratic access to special series which are almos

    RIP Ferrari. It was fun while it lasted and the name stood for something.

    Kind regards,

    Nuno
     
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  4. C50

    C50 Formula 3
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    No hard evidence to support those claims. True final production value will never known unless head office releases the data.
    Pista never was a “numbered” edition, so it’s largely a moot point.
     
  5. RayJohns

    RayJohns F1 Veteran
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    Good article there on Seeking Alpha.

    I can tell you this much, there is currently as much probability that my next car will be a Tesla as a Ferrari.

    Right now I'm trying to decide if I should go back and buy another 458 Italia, or maybe buy a Tesla Model 3 in a couple years just for the heck of it; or maybe a used F12 or used Lusso or something. There's really not much in the new lineup from Ferrari that blows my skirt up.

    Now that Luca di Montezemolo is gone, I really doubt the direction Ferrari will head next. I mean, I'm sure they will have on offer a very nice collection of jackets and kids Polo shirts, but as far as exotic cars that I can't live without.. not so much.

    It's going to be very interesting to see where Ferrari is as a company in another 10 or 15 years from now.

    Ray
     
  6. dustman

    dustman F1 Veteran
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    +1.

    I have a Lusso incoming and am toying with adding another 458 or an F12. Nothing coming looks good at all.
     
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  8. SoCal to az

    SoCal to az F1 World Champ
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    I don’t disagree with the sentiment of the thread but that 6000 number seems high. Very high
     
  9. ipsedixit

    ipsedixit Formula Junior

    The author is also shorting RACE.

    Take the article in context.
     
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  10. Golattus

    Golattus Karting
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    Even if you take article in contest, my feeling matches 100% with it. There’s nothing sacred in Ferrari nowadays.

    There’s not a single model right now that really thrills me.
     
  11. Golattus

    Golattus Karting
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    2000 Speciales seemed to be high number, 6000 pistas are a crazy number, what’s next? 15000 F8 Ego?

    This policy is only good for Ferrari not for the customers. But F is right in a way, they are making more money and no matter what they sell everything in advance.

    Who’s wrong here? Only time will tell.
     
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  13. RayJohns

    RayJohns F1 Veteran
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    Their recent SEC filings stated that they shipped a total of 10,131 cars in 2019.

    I don't know where the 6000 Pista number came from, but my guess would be maybe a comment from a conference call with analysts or something. Look at it like this, if people aren't buying the F8 in large enough numbers, it makes you wonder if dealers will magically start handing out Pista allocations to lower down customers. This happened with the 430 Scuderia a while back. When it first came out, my dealer told me no way could I spec one out... then 24 months later they cold called me saying ' Oh, hey good news, if you still want that 430 Scuderia, we can get you in". Gee thanks.

    I was actually going to order a Pista last year, but when I asked my dealer, they practically slammed the door in my face and basically said it was a non-starter. It wouldn't surprise me if in another 12 months they start scrapping the bottom of the barrel when the Pista is nearing its end of life cycle and see how many more they can squeeze out the door for 2020. I could be wrong, but Ferrari knows a lot of people really wanted the Pista and if they are going to top the 2019 10,000 car production figures by say 8 to 10% in order to keep shareholders and Wall Street happy, I have to wonder if that can be done on the back of the F8 or that godawful looking SF90. Maybe I'm out of the loop and the F8 is selling like hot cakes, but I personally don't know anyone that's all that excited over the SF90 or the F8 - I know I'm not.

    So where are the higher sales numbers going to stem from? The Roma?

    Perhaps the big plan for 2020 is to open the flood gates on the Pista - and make everyone feel special - in an effort to bolster up F8 sales.

    6000 Pistas, if that's an accurate figure, would represent more than 1 out of every 2 cars sold across all of 2019.

    Ray
     
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  14. Corradosv

    Corradosv Karting

    Oct 17, 2016
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    Hi,
    I have no sound production numbers for the Pista, but I can tell that a couple of weeks ago, for the second time in a couple of years the same (French) dealer called me to offer me a Pista. This time I have even been given the option to choose between two available cars (I don't know about new/used or specs, as I was not interested).
    Considering I must be very close to the last place in the Ferrari customers ranking, being the mere owner of a used 458, I would agree that the Pista is not a rare car, at least in relative terms of supply/demand.
    The usual closing comment in this discussions is always that well they do in producing many cars, if they sell. It doesn't look like, even regardless long-term consideration about brand dilution, that anyway should matter for some brands.
     
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  15. Il Co-Pilota

    Il Co-Pilota F1 Rookie

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    That number is way off.
    The fact alone that they say that things have moved from 5000.to 10000 units, just goes to show how little they know.
    When did Ferrari last produce 5000 units of a mid engined V8? And 120o of a VS? The Peciale was around 2000 for the berlinetta version, not 1200. Not sure abot the Scud, but definitely more.

    As for that 10000 number? Really? We need to go back to what, F355 days for that. The 458 is in the 17-19000 number without VS cars. So exactly what is that 5000 to 10000 number supposed to tell us, it tells us nothing because it has little relation to real world numbers.
    It simply tells us that yet another gonzo hack is trying to create a story based on his own guesstimates, and probable loose hearsay amongst his peers.
    6000 Pistas? Lol. Even with RACE in the mix, that's just so far off it boggles the mind.

    Sent from my SM-G930F using FerrariChat.com mobile app
     
  16. LVP488

    LVP488 F1 Rookie

    Jan 21, 2017
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    The 1200 number is what is found in wikipedia for the Challenge Stradale (which does not mean it's exact, but shows how the writer made his "research"), so it's 17 years ago - and I do not think at that time anybody was playing the game of buying extra cars to get an allocation. And 6000 for the Pista seems really a lot; initially the number of 1800 was unofficially leaked and Ferrari has certainly increased the actual number to respond to the high demand - a little more than 3000 is possible in my opinion, but Ferrari continued to build other cars so there is a limit in how many Pista they could make...
     
  17. Shadowfax

    Shadowfax F1 Rookie

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    #14 Shadowfax, Mar 2, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2020
    Who cares how many Pista’s were finally made anyway. Seems those worried with numbers appear more worried about being able to make money out of these types of cars rather than driving and using them. Hopefully one day Ferrari will become a brand which can be sold easily with 40,000 on the odo as at the moment most for sale are barely even used so anything with more than 10,000 on the odo nobody wants them unless they are for nothing and even the ones with no miles are tough to shift now unless the seller is prepared to take a big hit.

    That all said there are new Pistas available for sale still but again a lot of that is because of fall overs from guys with 488's who were given allocation that are still trying to shift their cars and don't want to pay the difference in changeover which is understandable. This would have to be a global issue. Whether it was the Lusso they bought or the 488, both would be very bitter pills to swallow now.

    I also think those trying to make more out of it, thinking there were massive numbers made are way off base. Maybe they ought to count their lucky stars and take the opportunity of buying one (which they never had beforehand) and enjoy the car rather than waste time speculating how many were actually built.
     
  18. Clembo

    Clembo Karting
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    If any of you are involved with a public company, you already know that Seeking Alpha is not very credible.
     
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  19. AlfistaPortoghese

    AlfistaPortoghese Moderator
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    Same here. Excellent write up as always, Ray.

    Whatever direction Ferrari as a company decide to take, people who were drawn to the era and aura of this picture, will end up buying some brand else.

    Regarding Pista production numbers, given the car was launched in March 2018, even with Ferrari ramping up production seriously, 6,000 units seems a gross overestimate. I don’t think Ferrari even had time to make 6,000 units, let alone sell them. I can’t come up with a credible scenario to defend the claim that there are 6,000 Pistas out there on the road.

    More important than production numbers is enjoying the glorious machine a Pista is. I’d seriously doubt I’d trade a Pista for an F8. Nevertheless, Ferrari should pay attention to exclusivity. I’m not a hypocrite: it’s a factor for me when I shop for a supercar.

    Kind regards,

    Nuno.

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  20. willcrook

    willcrook Formula 3

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    the f12 will probably be the last of the ferrari's I buy. everything else I will add from this point will be older

    nothing excites me atm
     
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  21. willcrook

    willcrook Formula 3

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    what happened late on with 458 spec's too is people were offered them on condition they have to spec them with tons of options
     
  22. WM458

    WM458 Formula Junior

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    The SF90 is a true beauty compared with the Roma.
    Doesn’t matter, the Roma can not be seen as a Ferrari anymore. It is a mixture of DB11, AMG GTS and something that can’t be specified clearly. Boah, seen it in Person recently. OMG
     
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  23. xBox

    xBox Formula Junior

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    #20 xBox, Mar 2, 2020
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    The v8-production line produces 25-cars per day (front engined v8 are upstairs on the v12 line).

    If you multiply this up, you get pretty close to the mentioned production figure for Pista.
     
  24. thomastrain

    thomastrain Rookie

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  25. SoCal to az

    SoCal to az F1 World Champ
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    488 were being produced at the same time as Pista and now F8 as well. Its not all Pista on the V8 line.
     
  26. RayJohns

    RayJohns F1 Veteran
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    The 10,131 production figure was provided by Ferrari in their 2019 20-F filing. You can go download it from the Ferrari website and read it if you want to.

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    Note also that they plan to introduce 15 new models between now and 2022. That's quite a change from the days when they would basically only introduce one new V8 model and one new V12 model once every four years or so.

    So let's roll the clock forward just 24 months from now; you walk into Ferrari and there are 15 different models in production to choose from? Does Toyota even offer 15 different models? If Ferrari does introduce that many new models, my guess is that they will have to take orders from all customers who walk through the door; so you can probably be a new customer and have access to 8 to 10 of those with no previous history or relationship with your dealer. If that's the direction things are going, Ferrari is correct that they may erode some of the exclusivity of their brand. Get ready for everyone with a popular YouTube channel and over 2 million subscribers to be driving a Ferrari and Vlogging about it.

    Just do the math: if they plan to produce even just 1000 units per year of each of those 15 new models, that alone would be 15,000 cars a year.

    It's all fine with me, but it does sound like it's going to be a very different landscape in the next 5 years or so.

    Ray
     
  27. RayJohns

    RayJohns F1 Veteran
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    It's basically the Craigslist of financial news services, yes :)

    Ray
     
  28. RayJohns

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    I'm in the same camp. The F12 looks good. It's great value for the money right now too. As much as I like the 812, I think the F12 has better lines and somehow captures more of the Ferrari feeling I like.

    Ray
     

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