599/430 Prices Crashing

I think 430's will track with the Stradale and hit 80K maybe... should be an interesting 2 years. Big question is when to start buying and hopefully owners don't thrash the cars too much...

 

Wonder what sort 'o house 100K might buy in 18 mos. Then again, maybe a new Prius'll be 100K in the not too distant ...

 

Jim, I buy into likelihood of $200K F40 and $120K Daytona since they were there less than a decade ago in a moderately strong economy. If 430's and CS go to $100K can you envision Ferrari halting or severely attenuating new car production given the entry point of $250-300K?

 

Very very soon, I intend to buy all the CS's in the world! Hahahahaha!

 

Thanks for that.
Looking at the upper end of the income, retained and inherited assets spectrum (where a lot of Ferrari buyers reside), do you think that the present and near future economic downturn is going to accelerate or decelerate their onterests in purchasing luxury items.

Two assumptions:

1) Money isn't an issue (as in a $200,000 purchase isn't a hyooge matter).
2) Purchases are not asset-based (such as land, homes, long term stock, etc)

And a disclaimer:

Do Ferrari purchasers (new, exotic or rare) actually fall into this class of wealth?

 

I can't see Ferrari caring much about used prices. They care about selling new cars. If the public are willing to spend the cash, Ferrari will pump out the cars. See Porsche for more details...

Re CS values - I think they will hold up better than standard 430s but will always be a step below a Scud, hence I think their depreciation curve will track with the Scuds and not the mainstream models.

Re 430, 360, Maser values - they will only ever go down. Well - at least for the next 20 years or so...

 

Thanks a lot for the replies, guys. I have seen increased number of offerings for sports cars on the local market as well. Crazy how the whole world is effected. I'm going to wait with my purchase a year or two now.....

 

The longer you wait, the less money you lose in two ways. Loss of income on money you spend on a Ferrari and 2) the less of a depreciation hit.

On the latter, it appears that the depreciation curve and the repair curve neatly stop-start at the same time. I. E., when depreciation flattens, repair and maintenance other costs increase (on relatively new cars).

 

True.
430 allocations are a big ZERO from now on.
Whatever is sitting in the dealer inventories ,that's it.
Btw,saw a beautiful brand new 430 ,White with Bordeaux Daytonas and Black inserts at LFSC if anyone is looking for a Coupe.....

 

That one sounds sexy.

 

Fact: my local dealer this week sold a clean , low mileage, very early 599 (delivered November '06) for $25K over MSRP, and delivered a brand new one at MSRP which was well into $3KK. It is all about supply and demand, and with assembly lines shutting down, high end cars as great as the 599 will find buyers, at least in those areas of the country where deep pockets still exist.

 

...as PT Barnum ROTF's in his grave....

 

Great deals will continue to be made by dealers, because a buyer has to have a particular car, doesn't know the market, doesn't want to look or wait, etc.; that's one reason is doesn't always pay to lower asking prices too far. IMO the occasional seller killing doesn't change the overall trend for production cars.

 

I myself have refered to MMR here and many have spoke of the auctions and cars are selling for at the auctions. I thought i would just take a few mins to explain what the MMR is and the diffrences between what Manheim does and what Barret Jackson is all about.

MMR means Manheim Market report and is made up of real sales through lanes at the verious sales around the country. Manheim Auctions is dealer only wholesale auction company, there are others like Adsea and more. A good number of the auctions are closed to inde dealers and are only open to franchise stores. The cars offered through the auctions are many times just off lease (dd cars) repo'ed cars and aged inventory (though most aged cars go through a 20 group) These auctions are not open at anytime to genral public. Most of the Ferrari's and lamborghini that run are cars the ware repo'ed, and since most of the buyers at the high-line sales are there for Jaguars and Merceades, the exotics sit longer... sending the selling prices down. These cars are mostly then bought from a wholesaler that will flip to a dealer in there network. So when quoting the MMR here and the use of the dealer only auction as price gauge, it can be confusing...There are sellers fee's there are buyers fee's and shipping cost, alot more goes into that final selling price then what is listed in the MMR..Many times buyers at the sale use the black book and not the MMR as a gauge...

That all said, the real places that exotic dealers use is called Ilux and thalist...this real market place for high-end dealers.

Barret Jackson and auctions like it that are driven by the genral public are hype driven. They are more shows, but shows a good picture of what buyers are willing to pay to either get a good buy or to drive prcies up...

So for what its worth....The MMR is just a guide dealers use at the sale..

 

One thing about AOL motors, Yahoo, Myride, is that they use crawlers to comb websites, for example if you have the word "scuderia" on your site at all..it keys that word and point all serches for that word to your website at random pages on your site...These sites are wierd...

So in short if at anytime a dealer had a 599 or quotes a 599, then there robots will pick it up and list it...

I have found that the FNA site search is genrally good...On Cars, Dupont, and the like there are way more cars listed, to get phone leads then they have...Very common!

 

100% right..for me I am only buying cars if I have buyer! Now if I could find one that matches the pedigree that I have to buy for $225k is a diffrent story...There is 2 sides to this, the first is real exptations...The buyer would want a pedigree car that a dealer has for wholesale..but if I can not get that dealer to take my price, then the buyer loses out on the car, and I lose the sale, but so does the dealer wholesaling in the first place!

Prices are down! Thats a fact! I know that it was posted in one of threads on this topic that alot dealers are seiing alot more floor traffic, or phone traffic now, but the buyers are leaving there check books at home. The reason that I am hearing, is that the customers exptations on price are out of line for the most part. I see the prices retail down around 30% since last year.

But I would try to buy the car for even less if I could!!! And of course only if the car was pre sold!!

 

Damn you dislike the 599, Jim. Your Duesy was built, bought, and driven during the Depression. If you're this negative about housing and cars, guess toilet-city for everything else, no recovery of prices, ever it seems.

I posted this in the other thread, but guess this is the thread:
If you look at the NYT photo, there are a huge number of Priuses sitting on that lot. In early 07, a friend's store couldn't give the damn things away. How many series 1 Priuses do you see (notchbacks)? US makers taken to task for selling what people wanted (trucks).

Jim, if something nice is in Manheim, the dealer who had it wants out. Now. I pulled up my Mannheim On Line and looked at all Ferrari sales in 08. Car was a lease car, average condition. That was the only Manheim sale of 599 since car came out. Price in toilet, but power function lacking in sample.
430 sales in 08: '05 2 Spiders, 4 Coupes; '06 2 Spiders 2 Coupes; '07 2 Spiders 1 Coupe.
Only 3-4 of these since July, so not a vast flood into auction pool. Prices down.

People who couldn't afford to write a check for one (just like houses) bought exotics, tried and did make money. Not anymore. They're cars. Unnecessary cars. 4-cams were just cars, SWB's etc. too. They depreciate, then they stabilize or gain eventually. Actually, compared to some stocks, they did ok. Whoever traded a <100mi 430 Spider at Bentley of BH for 160 had their head torn off, likely didn't care or was too dumb to know.

I've had vintage, and love them, but no time, and I want to use them (No Sal/Patrick/Uwe handy in TX). New stuff makes life easier. Won't own a "tach needle restoration" car either. Replicas are the suxxor.

Somebody only loses money if they sell it. People who HAVE to sell are screwed. I hope business issues don't hit the guys who own the cheaper/older cars too hard. Need the cars in hands that will use them.

Just tired of the "sky is falling" BS. Look around. Deflation does that. Lots of pinheads not getting bonuses this year (we hope), so used supply way up.

Exotic makers are smoking crack if they think they'll keep moving iron through this. The Ferrari SL apart from being overpriced is totally unnecessary and likely will be unwanted. FNA, RR, Bentley, Aston all are asking worldwide dealers WTF to do with model mix and numbers next year. They don't even know what is prognosis.

I'll still be out there running the 599. Won't be as few as 8C, but won't be many more over next couple years.

Like Bart says, "12 Cylinders or Walk".

 

The dealers that I have kept in contact with typically just pick up the phone and call two or three of the usual suspects. Not only is that what they have always done, with this market moving this fast, ironically the Internet is too slow.

****

It is a guide to the "high end" of the market or retail. Wholesale is less than MMR.

Dale

 

Richness worth a second cup!