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812 Market Dynamics

Discussion in 'FF/GTC4Lusso/F12/812S' started by 1881, May 19, 2019.

  1. 1881

    1881 Rookie

    Dec 21, 2016
    20
    812 pre-owned market is now in full swing, curious to get people's views of where things will go. My observations on the UK market

    • 15-20% of cars for sale: There are about 20 cars for sale, which given in 2018 there were 60 cars imported and I am guessing over the last 5 months a similar number came in, it indicates that around 15-20% of all cars are for sale, which seems a lot for a 1 year old model that's been hard to get and only VIP clients got their order filled

    • Dealers protecting the market: lots of car are on offer for about sticker, however with very few exceptions they are not moving and the stock is building up, at the moment the dealers are not dodging, but how long will they want to sit on the stock, that's going to be the question

    • Not sold out anymore: Bumped into someone recently who was offered a car for late 2020, so seems the car is still/ again for order

    • Soft market, few potential buyers: Overall market is very soft, lots of 12-18 months old cars at 25% below sticker, F cars are not immune, 812 is very highly priced excluding lot of pre-owned buyers, economic conditions likely to further worsen, lowering buyer's appetite

    All this leads me to believe that 812 values are about to nose dive, I make a bold statement here that fully spec'd cars low milage cars (sticker 350+, 1-2k miles max) will be at 300-320 by year end.

    What do you guys think? Please comment/ add/ challenge
     
    IloveGT and of2worlds like this.
  2. 350MH83

    350MH83 Formula Junior

    Jul 11, 2014
    263
    France
    Full Name:
    Max
    812 is definitely not sold out, I was offered one again 4 days ago by my dealer.


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
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  3. JTSE30

    JTSE30 Formula Junior

    Oct 1, 2004
    766
    Austin TX
    If the 812 becomes the final Ferrari V12 regular production, I think values are right to be holding now and will hold and go up in the future as there will be no replacement V12 offering...again, IF this becomes official by way of a Ferrari announcement, either direct or indirect (i.e. 812 replacement is not V12 and no other V12s remain for regular production...) This would be a break in the historical timeline unseen in more than 20 years...

    Michael Leiters has been making a lot news recently of his determination to keep the V12....it may end being only available in limited editions/Icona...
     
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  4. Condor Man

    Condor Man Formula 3

    Sep 8, 2006
    2,267
    Los Angeles
    Interesting observation.

    In the US. there are circa 45 cars on the market with the asking price slightly (+5%) over MSRP.

    And it appears that very little cars are changing hands, as the same cars seems to be staying on the market, with some even reducing in price.

    It is also very interesting that so many people have put them up on the market so quickly. Perhaps the talk of a spider version is the reason???

    For those wanting Ferrari Brownie Points it can be worthwhile to order every car that comes out and to sell them fast so the burn rate is left to a bare minimum and then these same buyer get to keep the special cars that are released.
     
  5. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Rookie
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    Feb 4, 2014
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    Ndugu Umbo
    812 did not have the reception the F12 enjoyed. F12 continued to be ordered even after the 812 announcement. This will reflect in the market performance.
     
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  6. FFantastic

    FFantastic Formula Junior
    Silver Subscribed

    Mar 23, 2015
    740
    UK Riviera
    Many thought the 812 would attract a considerable premium but that has not been the case. The hype was considerable and serial F car buyers naturally jumped in quickly but good as the car is the market is getting saturated. Plus mixed reviews don't help with some suggesting the extra power would have been better deployed using the Lusso 4 x 4 set up with one suggesting that on a damp Stelvio Pass the 812 couldn't live with the Lusso. Music to my ears owning a very capable Lusso.
    There is also a feeling that too many specials are coming out too soon after one another and although some appreciate quickly ie TDF, La F Aperta, etc some don't do as well as was hoped. With rumour of an 812 aperta or a track special version it would appear that quite a few owners are wishing to bail out of 812 ownership early having already placed an advanced speculative order.
    Some F12 owners who were not prepared to jump in regardless have now stated they prefer the F12 to the 812 for the same reasons some prefer the FF to the Lusso.
     
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  7. [gTr]

    [gTr] Formula Junior

    Mar 11, 2008
    529
    London, U.K.
    I think it is not an apples to apples comparison anymore. Ferrari is putting out a lot more product (both in numbers and variety) and imho we are starting to see the fallout from it.
    With the imminent introduction of the BB, the front V12 is no more the top of the line production car. Add to that, the release of Pista and F8 (I do think there is overlap between early V12 and V8 buyers) just as 812 starts to get delivered and then finally people are starting to position themselves for the 812 Spider.
     
  8. Eilig

    Eilig Formula 3
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    Aug 31, 2001
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    Cavallo
    What are the reasons some owners prefer F12 to the 812? Are they purely aesthetic reasons?
     
  9. FFantastic

    FFantastic Formula Junior
    Silver Subscribed

    Mar 23, 2015
    740
    UK Riviera
    From pouring over the various comments I gather that a number of reviewers and current owners have commented on the aesthetics being a good reason giving the F12 the Pinin factor as one and it's not difficult to see their point as the rear end of the 812 is to some not as dramatic or appealing as the F12. The performance of the F12 is also seen as sufficient and the TDF a bit too 'full on' for a road car but an excellent investment. The 812 has been referred to as 'easy to drive', 'more refined', 'quieter', 'more comfortable' etc etc which is all true but not possibly what the F12 replacement should have been which could be why the 'Special' is so eagerly awaited. Just my opinion as the owner of a Lusso who preferred the front end of my FF.
     
  10. Condor Man

    Condor Man Formula 3

    Sep 8, 2006
    2,267
    Los Angeles
    I sold my F12 two years ago and I am now considering buying the 812 however I would prefer to buy a used F12 for for $220 - 250k.

    I personally prefer the look of the F12. IMO it is the most beautiful modern F car ever made.

    With my spare change I get to buy a GT3RS as well rather than buying a 812 that really isn't $200k better than an F12.

    Sent from my SM-G960U using FerrariChat.com mobile app
     
  11. Eilig

    Eilig Formula 3
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    Could it be that, in the opinion of some, the 812 is actually "too refined?" .... and perhaps that takes away some of the excitement/drama that some of us really like about a Ferrari?
     
  12. italiafan

    italiafan F1 Veteran

    Jul 19, 2006
    9,678
    USA
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    Stickbones Swagglesmith
    I have an F12 and love it, an amazing machine and to my eye more classically beautiful than the 812. As such I have always been a bit "down" on the 812 as many of you may attest from previous posts. However, that changed Saturday when I drove an 812 for the first time.
    It is a far better driver than the F12, of that I no longer have any doubt.
    It is faster, more controlled yet compliant at the same time. An amazing machine to drive.
    I think the front of the 812 is better than the F12, and I think the view over the bonnet from driver's seat is better in the 812; however, the rear of the F12 is far superior to my eye than the mishmash of the 812.
    I am now thinking about selling my F12 for an 812 allocation, assuming the planets lien up.
    Furthermore, I have dreamt of specc'ing a green GT car....Verde Zeltweg with gold wheels may just be the dreamy ticket. :)
     
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  13. nads

    nads Formula Junior
    Silver Subscribed

    Jun 4, 2008
    774
    London, UK
    Ha! When the F12 was first shown it's rear end was controversial and considered by many (including Fchat) as 'butt ugly' and a design failure. It never ceases to amaze me how people criticise the design of a new Ferrari model and then go on to adore it subsequently. :D
     
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  14. [gTr]

    [gTr] Formula Junior

    Mar 11, 2008
    529
    London, U.K.
    My thoughts exactly! There was even a a picture floating around comparing it to the female reproductive organs....
     
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  15. Solid State

    Solid State F1 Rookie
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    Feb 4, 2014
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    I agree with you. However, the F12 set benchmarks in glowing reviews when released. More so than the F12 TdF and most definitely quite the contrast from the 812s. It was often referred to by reviewers as even too fast which was not said on new releases. This popularity carried over to the general enthusiast community. I believe that greatness stays with a car as part of its history and future and will always be reflected on just as does issues of dislikes stay with a car. I'm just guessing but the market for the F12 will be more kind than the 812 in years to come if that sort of thing matters to you.
     
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  16. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3
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    Apr 2, 2012
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    Scraggy
    Just sold my fully specified and I think tasteful 812 with 900 miles at £15k under UK list through an official dealer. It was one of the more attractive UK offerings, many were ex demo with the pre specification that Ferrari insisted upon to streamline production.

    My reasons for selling did not relate to the car (it was fabulous, only criticism is that it’s too big and too fast) but I did expect to run the car for 18 months with minimal depreciation.

    Observations :

    Only very carefully and broadly appealing cars are selling, nobody is paying 350k to compromise

    Public opinion is moving fast against these cars and they will be a social embarrassment soon......

    Prices are sliding across the board, LaF off 30pc in a year, Other end of the market a good 575 manual has gone from 200 to 130, ignore what the SOR market is asking and focus in achieved prices

    People have been surprisingly slow to consider the implications of speed limiting and GPS speed ticketing. No way will existing cars be grand fathered for long

    Ferrari are now extracting the after market premiums with right less efficiency

    The game has changed, probably forever (sadly) don’t let emotion blind you

    Lots of fun can be had at modest prices, I have added to collection a manual 981 Spyder, just the right size, manual, N/A, glacial depreciation and loads of fun with minimal fuss (apart from being told I am a hairdresser )
     
  17. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3
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    Scraggy
    Spot on
     
  18. Thecadster

    Thecadster Formula Junior
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    Apr 27, 2017
    714
    Honestly, I think it’s the price walk. I just consigned my perfectly awesome 1985 mile F12 for $249,000 to make room for my $500,000 812 that will be here in a couple weeks. Nearly every day I think about how I must have fallen and hit my head. I know plenty of dudes on Fchat have *blank you money, but I don’t. So the upgrade sting is real.
     
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  19. montpellier

    montpellier Formula Junior

    Aug 27, 2009
    594
    Europe
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    Paul
    Shock horror, a depreciation thread for V12 Ferrari. Where have you been the last decades. Always been the case and 812 will not be different , until the production stops in 18/20 months and the spider volumes are low and the next gen V12 is a shock to the system. May steady the ship, maybe not. Yes the world is changing , but it is not as obvious as being suggested. The number of producers of high end sports cars has exploded in the last decade. It is not a sob story, but one of unprecedented growth. There are huge numbers of cars in the market, and the market is saturated. That is one of the big drivers , as is the increased volumes Ferrari is producing. Maybe a warning sign for the 500k BB coming at the end of the month. Maybe a step too far price wise.

    Anyway why get off the enjoyment of these cars before you have to ? we will all feel better when we are driving our Dyson around, but unless we stop the cows farting it will be in vain.
     
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  20. Scraggy

    Scraggy Formula 3
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    It’s not that enjoyable in London, that’s the whole point.
     
  21. deltona

    deltona Formula 3

    Aug 7, 2009
    1,303
    UK
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    Justin
    Thanks Scraggy for the details about your car. It is a really nice spec although I suspect the red interior would polarise opinion.
    My only other observation is that it seems your car had about £90k of options. In that respect I don’t think the depreciation is bad at all.

    I’m currently driving my Lusso most days and love it. I think we are all aware that the world is rapidly changing but I still think for some time yet we can enjoy our niche and driving in London hasn’t been much of a pleasure in any car since I passed my test a long time ago, although tourists seem to love seeing a Ferrari. :)

    As Montpellier says, I think that 812 coupe values will be determined by how many 812 spider will be produced and it’s price point. If the spider costs about £30-50k more than the coupe many will want the spider. If it’s say £100k more I think coupe values will stay firm. We should know towards the end of this year.
     
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  22. montpellier

    montpellier Formula Junior

    Aug 27, 2009
    594
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    Paul
    Was it ever ?
     
  23. MDEL

    MDEL Formula 3
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    The graph below shows the evolution of premium Suv's and sports supercars registrations in all Europe. Since 2008/2009 the new supercars registrations in Europe have kept steady, year after year, showing no tendency whatsoever to increase. I have no information about what happened in the US but wouldn't be surprised if the phenomenon is identical. In other markets in Asia and specially in China, the demand for supercars has also had better days and the current trend is for a considerable reduction in sales. It seems that sales of super cars continuo relying mainly on existing customers, since not many new ones are entering this market , signaling that there is a stagnation.
    Until now Ferrari has been able to sell all the cars they've produced for the price they wanted but like you referred, even Ferrari "buyer's appetite" can change from time to time and from model to model. Ferrari's future goal is to sell a lot more cars but with the company market relying very strongly not on first time "buyer's appetite" but on existing customers, I doubt they will ever be able to achieve that unless the new Purosangue SUV sales will be a great success.


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  24. FFantastic

    FFantastic Formula Junior
    Silver Subscribed

    Mar 23, 2015
    740
    UK Riviera
    Very much agree with your points especially about public opinion. My lusso is coming up 2 years old in August and will have about 13500 miles by then. Already lost about £100k so it is now destined to be a keeper but I do believe the very much understated shape of the Lusso in a subtle colour combo flies just under the radar and so might one day be the only one to have. Do you miss yours?
     
  25. Elisesko

    Elisesko Karting
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    Jan 27, 2016
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    John
    What else are you going to give up for public opinion? Who said we won the cold war. Yikes. Slippery slope indeed.
     
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