Another post on the same link: http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/showthread.php?t=184731 The "real" Ferrari (related) bird discussed here a few days back: http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/showthread.php?t=183982
Aerion certainly has plenty of experience in their team to build it. I hope they succeed. I did find it interesting that on their website almost half of the "mission studies" involved Dubai, eschewing the typical ports of NYC, London, Tokyo, HK. I guess that's a strong indication that Aerion expect--or maybe already know--a large portion of their clients could be from the Arabian Peninsula.
The biggest questionmark for Aerion will be who, if anyone, will step up to be the production partner. Of the traditional folks there is Gulfstream, Cessna, whatever Beech/Hawker former Raytheon is called now, Bombardier and Falcon. What is the expectation that any of these would be willing to take over a program started by an outside group? Some on that list have strong "not invented here" mentalities. Brian Barents is a good guy, and has lots of senior experience from Cessna, Learjet and Galaxy but in reality is more marketing focused not manufacturing. I wish them well but of the entire list above the only one that can actually make and hold to an all new development program is Cessna. Gulfstream keeps making iterations of the GII (the G150 and G200 is a bought productline), Bombardier claim on developments is that they aren't as horrible Raytheon/Beech. Falcon I guess does OK but there last all new was the F900. I wish Brian and his group well and believe that they may have correctly understood what is a prudent level of technical risk. In the end the productionizing and the certification is going to take some deep, deep pockets that are seriously committed to seeing it through. Jeff
Every few years, someone comes up with the idea of a supersonic business jet, and you see renditions, but you never see them flying, for a very, very simple reason: no demand, once the potential buyers see that they aren't usage over the USA, the usage is limited, and all of a sudden, the demand isn't there. If they were going to make them, we'd have seen them before. Until China, et al, gets sufficient economic clout, and people are really flying back and forth across the Pacific, don't expect to see any of these any time soon. Art
I agree with Art and Jeff, there isn't much of a real market for it, and the cost is going to be astronomical. You just gotta want to have bragging rights, or do a lot of flying between continents for it to make any real sense. They have been working on this for how long and still haven't actually launched a product? When I was working at RR (ex-Allison in Indy) we were constantly being told by the commercial PD guys that there was a potential for this to go forward, but my take on it was that it was more of a pipe dream than anything else. Every time we challenged them on the production numbers we got the old "if you build it they will come" B.S. and they really coudn't get a launch customer that was real (read anything that wasn't a startup) to look seriously at it. If there was a real market for it you can be assured that Cessna or Bombardier would be out there building one. I did notice that Cessna finally took the wraps off of the "wide body" version of the Citation X, that has been in gestation actually since 1999, so there is a lot of "look before you leap" engrained in their process, but I don't hear any rumblings of a SSBJ coming out of anyplace in the industry except Aerion...
Although I remain skeptical of a start-up or someone like Aerion, that at least recognizes the need for an establish production partner, there is likely a market out there if a real live aircraft comes to the market. The latest offering price for a used BBJ is $70M. The wait for a new BBJ is at 4 years. Just saw a G500 or 550 offered at $60M. Warren Buffet speaking in his role as the owner of Net Jets has said repeatedly that if someone makes such an aircraft then Net Jets will be a buyer. In fact some versions of the story say that the fractionals may be the big client for the supersonics. Some of the big questions will be for a person that would have been in a Boeing or Gulfstream class will they be willing to settle for the small cabin that everyone proposes? After these people have gotten use to 5,500 - 6,500 nm range will they go back to a maximum of 4,000 or less? For the New York crowd it will be important to have a weight that allows continued use of Teterboro Airport (BBJs are banned by weight). For the middle east crowd the cabin won't hold their standard entourage of servants and hangers on. It actually could be a viable product and if they can find a way to get one of the major folks as a partner (a major question make) then they could get all of their normal clients who always sign up for the latest and biggest so they aren't outdone in the bragging rights. It remains a high risk undertaking and at least Aerion is working to prove that there are actual buyers with real money. This may help them find a partner that see that the risk on the sales side is at least mitigated. Jeff
I see the market as big ego CEOs spending Corporate/shareholder money ( Read "free"). Like they are now on Biz jets. Cant wait at airports like the riff raff when each and every decision and luncheon must be made in the timeliest fashion.... right. And I used to work in the biz jet community.
They're buying up British and American real estate, banks, casinos, bonds, etc. If your ear is close to the ground you know that the ME has been moving big money around and starting to buy... we (North America) were stupid and overextended ourselves. They're the ones with the reserves of cash coming to bail/buy everything out now.
Unexceptable in my book! If ferrari or Lamborghini is to enter the world of planes they need to build fighters! not business airliners They might as well release another boring sedan on the road and slap some ferrari badges on it. Anyways thats my opinion about it maybe there's folks out there who spend more time in the air than on the road.
