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A recession inevitable due to COVID-19?

Discussion in 'Other Off Topic Forum' started by Dilusha, Mar 9, 2020.

  1. Dilusha

    Dilusha Formula Junior

    Dec 10, 2016
    661
    How bad will it be? Could it be worse than 2009?
     
  2. willcrook

    willcrook Formula 3

    Feb 3, 2009
    1,105
    UK
    it's going to be bad, very bad imo
     
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  3. Ianjoub

    Ianjoub Formula Junior

    Dec 22, 2019
    260
    Homosassa, FL USA
    Full Name:
    Ian Joubert
    Maybe we can finally end the Fed!

    Repeal all of 1913 for that matter.
     
  4. craterface

    craterface Formula Junior

    Apr 14, 2011
    615
    Sanibel Island, FL
    Not much room to lower interest rates and we already have huge deficit spending. Not a good scenario.
     
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  5. Schumi

    Schumi Formula Junior
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    Jun 5, 2002
    690
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    Daren
    Add to that the $700 BILLION in quantitative easing that was just announced by the Fed.
     
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  6. AbarthDave1

    AbarthDave1 Karting

    Nov 7, 2015
    176
    Marietta
    I hear everything is closing in a few days for 2 weeks.
     
  7. MotorMouth

    MotorMouth Formula Junior

    Jan 6, 2010
    316
    Columbia County NY
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    Dave
    Any idea why the fallout from this is already way worse than it was for H1N1 when there were 22 million cases of it vs 4000 cases of this one?
     
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  8. Ianjoub

    Ianjoub Formula Junior

    Dec 22, 2019
    260
    Homosassa, FL USA
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    Ian Joubert
    They closed the schools here for 2 weeks.
     
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  9. spicedriver

    spicedriver Formula 3

    Feb 1, 2011
    1,738
    All you have to do is watch some cable news and see how giddy the MSM has gotten. It's hard to beat an incumbent with a roaring economy. But if you can spin the common cold into an "end of the world" hoax...
     
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  10. Texas Forever

    Texas Forever Four Time F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Apr 28, 2003
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    Difference this time is business stopped. Think of the ripple effect of airlines parking planes. Production stopping in China. Then add the Saudis destroying fracking. Not good.


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
  11. Rifledriver

    Rifledriver Two Time F1 World Champ

    Apr 29, 2004
    26,871
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    Brian Crall
    This whole thing is starting to read like a Tom Clancy book.
     
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  12. zygomatic

    zygomatic F1 Rookie
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    And now they're saying $1K per adult in "stimulus" funding, coming in the next ~2 weeks...
     
  13. Ianjoub

    Ianjoub Formula Junior

    Dec 22, 2019
    260
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    Ian Joubert
    Somehow I think most on this board are going to not get that check....
     
  14. zygomatic

    zygomatic F1 Rookie
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    Jun 19, 2008
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    Well, Canada has acknowledged that they will slip into recession this year. We have had a stronger economy, but this drop may be enough to send us into recession.
     
  15. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
    12,533
    We're in one now as far as I'm concerned.
     
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  16. spicedriver

    spicedriver Formula 3

    Feb 1, 2011
    1,738
    A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. Hopefully our "leaders" will come to their senses by then.

    Asking the public to "stay home" because there's a new type of cold virus going around is completely idiotic.
     
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  17. EastMemphis

    EastMemphis Formula Junior
    Silver Subscribed Owner

    May 25, 2019
    444
    Memphis, TN
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    John
    It's not idiotic. It's not a cold. People are going to die by the hundreds of thousands or even millions from this virus and the lower the rate of infection, the more likely that the ventilator that someone is going to need when they do get into a dire condition will be available.

    There are two ways to handle this situation:

    1. Do nothing and let the disease run its course. People will be dying in the parking lots of the hospitals and mass graves will appear in every city like they have in Iran. You'll be able to see them from orbit.

    2. Try and do something to stop the spread by practicing social isolation. This won't stop the disease but it is likely to "flatten the curve" and hopefully, will be enough to keep the sick inside the hospital under care rather than dying for the lack of it.

    The hard and cold pure capitalists will say "Let them die, they're no use anyway." The compassionate people will sacrifice some gold to save the lives of people's mothers, fathers, grandparents and the infirm. I can see what camp you're in. No matter. Social isolation is happening and we just have to get used to it. In a few quarters, this too will pass and we can get on with creating wealth.

    If you are over age 60 or have some underlying condition like COPD or severe hypertension, you are at a high risk of dying from this virus. Sure, people die of the common cold all the time but this is so much worse that comparing the two is quite Fox News silly.

    I feel lucky that we cashed out more than half our equities a few months ago. Not quite dumb luck but close to it. Now we are buyers and are scooping up deals like they are (literally) going out of style.

    So you can fret about the loss of GDP and sit in your home grumbling about the talking heads spewing useless blather or you can make lemonade. Your choice.
     
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  18. Ianjoub

    Ianjoub Formula Junior

    Dec 22, 2019
    260
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    Ian Joubert
    It is idiotic. It is a common cold virus. Very few people will die from it if/when they contract the virus.

    Hey, Chicken Little, the sky isn't actually falling.

    Turn off MSNBC.
     
  19. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
    12,533
    There are a few definitions and that is one. The NBER takes about a year to announce one.
     
  20. spicedriver

    spicedriver Formula 3

    Feb 1, 2011
    1,738
    Nonsense. People were saying the same thing about MERS and SARS. Both are coronaviruses. Never happened.

    The COVID-19 genome has already been sequenced. There are some 30 vaccines from around the world ready for testing. Remdesivir has proven to be an effective treatment.

    You might want to look into that stock - GILD (NASDAQ)
     
  21. Skyler

    Skyler Formula 3

    May 31, 2004
    1,856
    Canada
    Full Name:
    Skyler
    Sorry for the off topic questions - but whatever happened to the Business and Politics sections here on Ferrarichat? I've been away for a while and they seem to have disappeared along with most of the 'old guard'.

    ?
     
  22. Texas Forever

    Texas Forever Four Time F1 World Champ
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    Apr 28, 2003
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    Texas!
    You have to subscribe to Silver or Rosa.


    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat
     
  23. Master Deep

    Master Deep Karting

    Jun 12, 2005
    193
    Sarasota, FL
    +1

    Please take it seriously. Yes it’s stupid that toilet paper of all things is sold out but we will live. A lot of people will die in the 60+ group. Younger people will be passing it on to others without knowing. And while the economy will probably bounce back in less than a year, many people are out of jobs already without pay. This is still going to get worse as we are about 4-6 weeks out from the peak. I’ve already begun doing Telemedicine visits for my high risk older patients as they are scared to come into the office. All my staff are wearing N95 masks and other protective equipment in an effort to try and not contract or spread the virus as we keep working.
     
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  24. someguy

    someguy Rookie

    Nov 3, 2012
    17
    Don't underestimate this. This is not the Coronavirus people are used to. It's not the 2003 SARS either. Lets not turn into Italy.
     
  25. one4torque

    one4torque Formula 3

    May 20, 2018
    1,488
    USA
    Full Name:
    One4torque
    I've been thinking about the reporting and rhetoric coming in over the development of this virus.

    A few thoughts:
    1. I stuggle to see the evaporation of every company that stops production for 2-4 or even 4-6 weeks.
    The workers will retain the skills.
    The equipment will not go away.
    The demand will be there if we are under X or perhaps XX weeks.
    All IMHO.
    A business that cannot withstand a 2-6 week stoppage seems to be running on the edge of failure.

    2. Suggest focus on the medical side, and stopping the spread for a period of time....... then I suspect we will have to go back to work... with a new set of protocols...... if this virus returns months later... as we open up travel..... I suspect we will not go through this entire shut-down stimulous pkg route again..... but rather we just suck it up and work...... and live in the new world.

    3. The partisan sparring is pretty nasty business......

    4. I'm hopeful....... the stock market is a reflection of projections of value based on developing data..... which no-one knows the end game..... it is all just speculating........ the fundamentals will still work once we decide to go back to work..... with the virus cured or with a new protocol.......

    A quick look at CS's for sale.... suggests to me many F car speculators punting on this 'asset'......... hopefully these go to drivers and not collectors.

    all my humble opinion... stay safe and enjoy your family time!
     
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