An End to Commercial Aviation? | FerrariChat

An End to Commercial Aviation?

Discussion in 'Aviation Chat' started by EastMemphis, Jul 13, 2025.

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, Skimlinks, and others.

  1. EastMemphis

    EastMemphis Formula 3
    Owner Silver Subscribed

    May 25, 2019
    1,853
    Memphis, TN
    Full Name:
    John
    I was caught up in yesterday's ground stop at Atlanta as were a good percentage of travelers.

    As my flight approached Atlanta, I watched the storm on my favorite weather radar app, RadarNow! (It's mine), I noted how the entire Atlanta area was ringed by an alert and virtually every approach had significant weather.

    While this isn't a new phenomena, it seems to be getting more common.

    Put aside your beliefs in the climate for a moment and consider what commercial aviation would look like if these storms and ground stops became commonplace, and not just in Atlanta.

    Comments?
     
  2. GrigioGuy

    GrigioGuy Splenda Daddy
    Lifetime Rossa Owner

    Nov 26, 2001
    33,109
    E ' ' '/ F
    Full Name:
    Snike Fingersmith
  3. jcurry

    jcurry Two Time F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Jan 16, 2012
    24,072
    In the past
    Full Name:
    Jim
    one of my favorites
     
  4. F1tommy

    F1tommy F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Dec 15, 2007
    11,486
    Sugar Grove USA
    Full Name:
    Tom Tanner
    They already are common in some areas. North Texas and Oklahoma are tornado and thunderstorm central for the country, and people keep moving to the worst weather damage areas in the country, so more flights to those areas.
     
  5. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
    14,428
    FL
    I don't think weather is going to be the issue that threatens an end to commercial aviation. The biggest issue in the future imo will be worker shortages and strikes likely from inflation and that being from currency devaluation and less resources per capita as consumption and population increases and finite resources dwindling.
     
  6. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Jan 5, 2002
    26,107
    Portland, Oregon
    Full Name:
    Don
    While I feel for you, I don't see that making any difference. Weather has always been a factor in aviation, and always will be.

    Would you have preferred to take Amtrak to your destination instead? Or a bus?

    The weather avoidance tools we have now are actually much better than they were 25 years ago, so in theory that should improve things. However, traffic and travel are up, which increases congestion, which causes issues. There is only so much airspace.

     
    tritone and Boomhauer like this.
  7. Ak Jim

    Ak Jim F1 Veteran
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Dec 23, 2007
    9,616
    North Pole AK
    Commercial aviation will be fine until someone figures out the Heisenberg compensator.
     
    MichaelP88 likes this.
  8. MichaelP88

    MichaelP88 Formula Junior
    Silver Subscribed

    Jul 22, 2022
    820
    Full Name:
    David

    Nerd... LOL. (which means I am too because I completely got it :))
     
    tritone and Ak Jim like this.
  9. Rifledriver

    Rifledriver Three Time F1 World Champ

    Apr 29, 2004
    37,089
    Cowboy Capitol of the World
    Full Name:
    Brian Crall
    #9 Rifledriver, Jul 17, 2025 at 8:02 AM
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2025 at 8:08 AM
    ??????? Forgive me if Im wrong but it seems to me weather is is less of an issue now than ever before in the history of aviation.

    We used to have to fly through it, now we fly above it. We so accurately track it, we avoid it. The replay of the planes sneaking into Memphis around an approaching storm is a great example. We have become so accustomed to uninterrupted travel any slight inconvenience seems like the end of the world.

    Weather used to dictate when, where and how man travelled by any means everywhere in the world. Now for the most part its a bump in the road.
     
    Dewinator, donv, jcurry and 2 others like this.
  10. jcurry

    jcurry Two Time F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Jan 16, 2012
    24,072
    In the past
    Full Name:
    Jim
    One of the major weather factors these days is how weather on one coast can affect operations on the other side of the country. The entire system is very dependent on having resources (aircraft/pilots) remain on schedule. Any disruption cascades through the entire system.
     
    tritone and donv like this.
  11. Rifledriver

    Rifledriver Three Time F1 World Champ

    Apr 29, 2004
    37,089
    Cowboy Capitol of the World
    Full Name:
    Brian Crall
    True but its not like we need to wait for the correct month to set sail for the new world.

    We are spoiled. Nature will always dictate to us. We have minimized it to a very small degree.
     
    Whisky and EastMemphis like this.
  12. F1tommy

    F1tommy F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Dec 15, 2007
    11,486
    Sugar Grove USA
    Full Name:
    Tom Tanner
    It also does not help having mega hubs, that if the weather is bad hurts more than it used when they used large hubs mixed with smaller regional hubs. They also over gate the large mega hubs more than they used to.
     
    EastMemphis likes this.
  13. f1_nix

    f1_nix Formula 3
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Aug 12, 2005
    2,183
    Ft. Worth, TX
    I think the bigger problem is that in the name of maximizing profit all of the slack has been removed from the system. There is no excess capacity, in crews or aircraft, to absorb the inevitable cancellations due to weather, mechanical issues or whatever. If a flight get cancelled, it may take days to get rebooked and on to your destination.
     
    EastMemphis likes this.
  14. Rifledriver

    Rifledriver Three Time F1 World Champ

    Apr 29, 2004
    37,089
    Cowboy Capitol of the World
    Full Name:
    Brian Crall
    Is that called maximizing profit or staying in business? I know of very few businesses that operate any other way save for a few luxury oriented businesses whose clientele dont mind paying considerably more for the convenience. You know, kind of like jet charter services.
     
  15. f1_nix

    f1_nix Formula 3
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Aug 12, 2005
    2,183
    Ft. Worth, TX
    I understand it from a business standpoint but from a consumer standpoint it is problematic. I recently had a flight to Europe cancelled due to mechanical issues. The flight they offered to get us there would arrive 2 days later. There was also a college musician group of 50 or so people going to perform in a music festival of some sort. Not sure how they could rebook at all.
     
  16. Rifledriver

    Rifledriver Three Time F1 World Champ

    Apr 29, 2004
    37,089
    Cowboy Capitol of the World
    Full Name:
    Brian Crall
    So propose a fix that allows them to make a reasonable profit and keep acceptable fares.

    Easy right?
     
  17. f1_nix

    f1_nix Formula 3
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Aug 12, 2005
    2,183
    Ft. Worth, TX
    I never said I knew how to fix it because I don’t. I think the problem is just the nature of the beast. Nobody’s happy but we just live with it and gripe.
     
  18. Rifledriver

    Rifledriver Three Time F1 World Champ

    Apr 29, 2004
    37,089
    Cowboy Capitol of the World
    Full Name:
    Brian Crall
    Well like I said, there is always charter service.
    I try and keep life in perspective. I think I am pretty damn lucky to have it as easy as I do. I dont have to ride a horse or take a sailing ship anywhere.
     
  19. jcurry

    jcurry Two Time F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Jan 16, 2012
    24,072
    In the past
    Full Name:
    Jim
    No belt changes in a horse or sailing ship;)
     
    Dewinator likes this.
  20. Whisky

    Whisky Three Time F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Jan 27, 2006
    31,859
    In the flight path to Offutt
    Full Name:
    The original Fernando
    1) People go on strike to get more money because the price of everything is going up.
    2) Prices go up so they can afford to pay people more.

    3) People go on strike to get more money because the price of everything is going up.
    4) Prices go up so they can afford to pay people more.

    5) People go on strike to get more money because the price of everything is going up.
    6) Prices go up so they can afford to pay people more.

    7) People go on strike to get more money because the price of everything is going up.
    8) Prices go up so they can afford to pay people more.

    And so on....

    And we have not even gotten into the slashes in employment companies are making (overall),
    so now, instead of someone crying and striking to get an 8% raise, now they are begging for a
    job - any job - that they can do, for $15-20 an hour, as opposed to the $40-45 an hour they WERE making.
    (I'm speaking in mid-America salaries, not west coast or NYC salaries)
     
    BMW.SauberF1Team likes this.
  21. Dewinator

    Dewinator F1 Veteran
    Silver Subscribed

    Jun 22, 2017
    7,600
    WA
    Well a horse has shoe changes and a wooden sailing ship has regular literally everything changes.
     
    jcurry likes this.
  22. Rifledriver

    Rifledriver Three Time F1 World Champ

    Apr 29, 2004
    37,089
    Cowboy Capitol of the World
    Full Name:
    Brian Crall
    Its just a high tech version of what companies have been doing for a long time. I still laugh thinking back on the lectures in economics class. Long drawn out explanations with charts and graphs explaining the costs of design, production, materials, labor, transportation, advertising all thrown together, add in a reasonable profit to come up with a per unit price..........

    Bull ****. How much will the market pay. Its all that matters. In this case just focusing on an individual customers price tolerance. The car and real estate industry has been doing the same from their inception.
     
  23. Whisky

    Whisky Three Time F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Jan 27, 2006
    31,859
    In the flight path to Offutt
    Full Name:
    The original Fernando
    So, if a guy whose demographics say he is 'low income', he will pay a cheaper price
    for a ticket compared to the more affluent guy sitting next to him whose demographics say he is 'rich'?
    That's how I read it...
     

Share This Page