Analysis of BaT 456 sales data | FerrariChat
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Analysis of BaT 456 sales data

Discussion in '456/550/575' started by jfm_cdm, Oct 24, 2025 at 9:20 PM.

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  1. jfm_cdm

    jfm_cdm Rookie

    May 18, 2013
    32
    Austin, TX / Corona del Mar, CA
    Full Name:
    Jim
    #1 jfm_cdm, Oct 24, 2025 at 9:20 PM
    I picked up the Verde Mugello 456 that I purchased on BaT about a month ago in Glendale yesterday and drove it back to Corona Del Mar. It has a few minor issues and some definite quirks given it is a Ferrari of that vintage! Will try to do some road time due diligence to document all of them before I get it sorted it out.

    As those of you who follow 456's on BaT know, this had a salvage title so was a bit of a crapshoot. I did have a PPI before bidding and found out details - accident triggered airbag and a replacement airbag sensor could not be located in US. Presumably, that's why it had salvage title, as insurer could not effect road legal repair without it and easier to write off. Seller located a sensor in Italy, but it did take some time. For $59,995, I felt I got a bargain, but was curious how much of one (and if the bidding limit I had in my head was about right), so I took the principal variables I could get from BaT for other sales for 3 years and built a regression model:
    Sale Price = f(mileage, age of car, auto transmission, title issues). Here's what I found:

    Average 6-speed: $169K
    Average auto: $110K

    Mileage: drop about $1 per mile (average mileage about 28K)
    Age: drop/raise about $2400 per year from average (avg year of production 1998)
    Auto trans: $59K less than the 6-speed
    Price discount for title issues: $24K

    Putting the variables for my car in, the projected purchase price would have been about $75,000, so the limit I had in mind was not too far off.

    Factors not considered:
    Blu Swatters color: The two sales North of $200K are both low mileage Swatters cars
    M modification

    Curious if others in the Forum with or considering 456's have thoughts.

    Jim
     
  2. lince

    lince Karting

    Sep 26, 2006
    195
    #2 lince, Oct 25, 2025 at 6:00 AM
    Normally when I do this I include service history, recent service , color interest and special options. In you case I would think the green ads good value but the salvage title should have more impact than the stated $24.000.
     
  3. DrDweeb

    DrDweeb Karting

    Nov 30, 2013
    171
    #3 DrDweeb, Oct 25, 2025 at 7:11 AM
    Disclaimer: I have not looked at the numbers from BaT, too depressing.

    Normally in such "analyses", it's a good idea to remove the very obvious outliers from the calculations. The blue ones seem weird and a single Schumacher car would skew the results significantly. Personally, I'd remove the salvage title cars, and look at them separately.

    My $0.02
     
    Ferrari55whoa likes this.
  4. Ferrari55whoa

    Ferrari55whoa F1 Rookie
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Dec 21, 2005
    3,484
    Los Gatos, CA
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    Eric
    #4 Ferrari55whoa, Oct 25, 2025 at 11:53 AM
    And in addition….mean vs median analysis

    listen….these are all irrational purchases.

    We have learned a LOT from our brothers (esp @Mirek ) on what the maintenance catch up can look like.

    FWIW if I had the space I would have done what you did @jfm_cdm and pulled the trigger. I wanted to be samesie color 456 buddies with @Aerosurfer ! :cool:
     
    Mirek likes this.
  5. Mirek

    Mirek Formula 3
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    Oct 20, 2019
    1,522
    Los Angeles, CA
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    Mirek
    #5 Mirek, Oct 25, 2025 at 12:08 PM
    Agreed. Great buy. Enjoy the car.

    Speaking of maintenance catch-up :) I have been down (primarily) due to massive carbon build up on valve in cylinder #1 causing pre-detonation when at full temp, it starts missing. Combination of crap CA gas and my daily driving habits (puttering around LA) me thinks.

    Shop is going to clean it up best they can w/ BG en lieu of a valve job.
     
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  6. Auraraptor

    Auraraptor F1 World Champ
    Lifetime Rossa Owner

    Sep 25, 2002
    14,220
    MO
    Full Name:
    Omar
    #6 Auraraptor, Oct 25, 2025 at 1:27 PM
    Purchase price is only the entry price.

    Even well sorted cars can have a (very) long list of needs as we all define sorted differently.

    My car (99 w 30k miles by a former member) was very well cared for but still needed 20k+ in service to freshen up....and I am not even done yet. Sadly its just waiting right now as I have more pressing issues to attend to (512TR major not withstanding....)
     
    Mirek likes this.
  7. Aerosurfer

    Aerosurfer Formula 3
    Silver Subscribed

    Nov 21, 2020
    1,957
    Indianapolis
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    Nick
    #7 Aerosurfer, Oct 25, 2025 at 3:02 PM
    Verde Mugello will grow on you! Its a very nice green, and also quite light dependant on how it stands out.

    Forget the average prices, a few as @DrDweeb pointed out, a few outliers skew those numbers up and not really indicative of the market. 4 seat Ferrari are terrible investments. Just enjoy them. If your car has good airbag modules, that's fantastic it was able to be repaired. Hope you have many trouble free miles. Don't count costs, just maintain it as best you can.
     

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