Any upside to Daytonas left?

dale,

i think the state of the economy and interest rates will be a bigger definer of the value. i suspect in the next two years there will be a good number of real estate problems in caluifornia and people who have found themselves overextended with refinancing and pulling the real value out of the market. when this happens, not if, it will be interesting to see if people jump into another market (ie - cars, if they haven't already) or if they try and salvage what is left of real estate. my guess is daytonas will stay at the range they are now currently in over the next two years with more solid transactions at this pricepoint. yes we all know that daytonas are trading at this level, but look at how many have hit the market and stayed. they aren't being snapped up at $225k, in two years, that price will be the norm when they come to market.

 

In 1990, the collapse of real estate prices (note I don't say value) and Ferrari prices were absolutely in synch. Who said that those who don't learn from the mistakes of the past are doomed to repeat them? But my chrystal ball has a virus, so don't go by what I say--I've been wrong as often as right!

 

a person who we all know told me a story of a person who had just refinenced his home and bought a 275gtb/4. this person makes less than $100k a year and bought the 275gtb/4 for about $600k.

claifornia has the highest percentage of interest only loans at a rate of over 90%. with everyone having no vested interest in their property, that is scary. especially considering that rates have risen over the last two years. anyone with an arm, the favorite tactic of a mortagage company/home seller to get the payment lower.

when i heard that the average mortagage in san jose was $853k with an average salary of less than $50k, i knew we were in for problems. almost all of those mortgages were on arms and interest only.

how can the market not correct? clearly, california isn't the best market to use, as property values will always be higher than the nation at large, but it makes one wonder.

when the arms are up and the interest only loans become unworthy, where will the average person go. the ones that have their money won't go into real estate. will they go into cars? i doubt it, but it will cause certain things to rise, maybe cars will follow.

we all know that the muscle car market will correct shortly. will this cause the ferrari to rise or fall? we all have our own ideas. needless to say, changes are abrewing......

 

When you look at what it cost to properly restore a Daytona, say 175K, 350K or so seems about right for a properly restored car done by a well known shop. The cars I have seen lately in the 225K range most likeley need everything restored mechanically. I do not think the Daytona can be compaired with a 275gtb as far as price ratios go. The 275gtb is the last handbuilt car from Ferrari and still very undervalued. The Daytona is a beautiful car, but for most people does not have that special look like the 275 series. At Pebble Beach this year, it seemed that people gravitated toward the 275 even more so that the 250gto. Who knows what the future holds for the market, but do you really think you will see a Daytona for 125K again, or a 275gtb long nose for 225K. More and more people are getting into the Ferrari world, and it seems that many people,(not me), have alot of cash to throw around at new toys, regardless of what the economy is doing.

 

I think there are cycles that take place in the market. As the 275s continue to rise up in value and become more out of reach for most buyers we naturally look for the next best thing we can afford. The Daytona is that car that is still within reach. It was a lot better buy a few years ago. This is probably why Boxers are going up in value as well. Just my 2 cents.

 

i am not a big boxer fan, however when you consider that a boxer cnabe bought for less than the price of the average 430 "selling" price is a bove msrp. whhen you get to the point that a dino or boxer is in the price range of a "over-msrp", you know they are undervalued

 

If the 599 is as good as everyone has started to say, then my money is on new people in the Ferrari world to be attracted to the newer car and not the Daytona.

Face it, there aren't many new people going after the old cars.

 

Within reach? We are talking about alot of money.... But I agree, If I were in the market right now for a vintage V12 Ferrari, and had a budget of about 200-250K it would be a Daytona. I would feel financialy safer to be into a 250K Daytona then a 150K dino. Keep in mind it will cost the same, if not more, to restore and maintain a 100K vintage Ferrari, as a 10 million dollar Ferrari.

 

IMO, the Daytona (spyder especially) is the most desirable Ferrari out there that looks like it could still be on the road. It's a bridge between vintage and modern - Ferrari could have added airbags and introduced it as a 2007 model and people would still be swooning.

I'm concerned about real estate right now and certainly don't have the discretionary income for either car, but if I did...

 

You are incorrect. The Daytona was the last handbuilt car from Ferrari. The Daytona also had a much richer racing history than the 275, winning its class at LeMans 3 years in a row and even finishing as high as 2nd at the Daytona 24 hours as late as 1979...5 years after production ended.

Which is more beautiful? To me, the Daytona. But beauty is clearly in the eye of the beholder.

What is positive is that lots more Daytonas were built and that is the driving factor in the value differences.

As to what will Daytonas be worth in 2-3 years? My best guess would be perhaps $125K - $160K. I could see 275s back in the 250K - $350K. These figures for cars actually trading hands, there will be plenty of cars advertised for todays crazy prices as buyers pray to get their money out but the cars wont be selling.

The real estate market losses coupled with a general collector car market crash driven by the collapse of absurd muscle car prices will correct the vintage Ferrari market. As happened in 1990, when the headline cars (muscle cars today) begin to plummet in prices it will pull the entire market down. The Muscle car market is RIPE for this. Prices increasing at utterly unsustainable rates, speculators active in the market, the number of "dealers" of collector cars has gone through the roof, all the auction companies and magazines have been pushing the hype like there is no tomorrow (which they probably realise there is not). I have restored/played with/collected old sportscars since 1984. I have seen this before....





Terry

 

"Good" is a relative term. I am certain that the 599 provides incredible luxury and world class supercar performance. I would also bet it doesnt offer anywhere near the pure FUN that driving a Daytona does. Its not just about how fast a car can go.... its more about how engaging it is for the driver. The new cars have computers that do all the real driving. The person in the drivers seat just points it and stomps the pedals while flicking a gear paddle. BORING. In the Daytona (or other vintage car) YOU must really DRIVE the car. It gives a more raw feedback, it demands respect and attention and in order to really get the best out of it you must truely focus and demonstrate skill.

I am not an older guy.... 39 years old. I could care less about any of the newer cars. They have no soul. Its all older cars for me.

Besides, my next car is going to an RCR GT-40. With 500hp pushing 2200lb and full on racecar suspension and brakes..... bring on that 599GTB... LUNCH!





Terry

 

Sometimes it has nothing to do with the capability of the car but much more so the capability of the driver. I've seen Miatas run circles around 355's at track meets simply because the Miata driver knows his car and knows how to drive it at its best, whereas the 355 driver was in this case a novice who really didn't have a clue. Good luck against the 599

 

All the experts say the 275 was the last handbuilt body by Scaglietti that was pounded out using sheets of metal by hand. After this model, such as the Daytona, the metal panels were stamped out by machines. Read Cavallino #48 for a good article by Dyke Ridgley.

 

Forgot to mention, the article states that "the Daytona was a compromise, designed in due time to conform to new and complex pollution and safety restraints imposed by various gavernments"... Dont get me wrong, I still love the car.

 

I'm restoring a Daytona, and let me tell you, the sheet metal wasn't stamped by a machine. I've been told by a few old timers that the metal was hand-formed with a hammer over an old tree stump at Scaglietti's shop. I have no idea if if the part about the stump is true, but it's easy to see where the hand formed panels were welded together to form the front fenders.

-mike

 

I live in the California Bay Area. Around 1989, I didn't own a vintage Ferrari. To busy starting a business.

In 1989, I saw a 330GTS in Walnut Creek for sale. Ask was $450k. Comparatively, a typical Bay area 1989 3000 Sq ft home cost about $250k.
So, a 330GTS at it's peak was 2:1 an average 1989 home.
Today a 330GTS is .5:1

Around the same time (1989) the 275GTB4 that I currently own, sold to a buyer in Japan for $1.2 mil (unusually high). The value of the 275GBT4 was about 4:1 an average $250k 1989 home..
Today a 275GTB4 is somewhere below 1:1 price to a 2006 $1 mil average home. Four to five times less the 1989 peak!

If home values drop by 10 - 15% ( remember their was a lot more land in 1989) vintage Ferrari prices are nowhere near their peak as it relates to home values. I dont see 275GTB4's
going for $300K after a possible real estate price correction.

Daytona's may have been alittle on the low end of value a couple years ago. 15% the value of a Bay Area California home.
Today 22%.

Today's prices seem about right and we shouldn't see a collapse in the next few years as related to real estate values since vintage Ferrari's are well below the 1989 bust ratios. Prices have climbed slowly thru the 90's and the 2000 bust. A lot of acceleration in the last couple years. Maybe vintage Ferrari's are catching up to real values? Please don't buy, sell, trade, option r hold or anything - based on my views - just an opinion.

 

5 Years ago a good Daytona was $125,000. Since then, terrorists destroyed the World Trade Center, the US went to war, the economy stalled (and recovered) and the dollar lost 30% relative to the Euro. And in the same time, Ferraris doubled and sometimes tripled in value. No real point to make here, but I just thought I'd mention it.

Is the price of a vintage Ferrari linked to interest rates? Besides the example given above, I don't know of too many people buying them on credit. I personally think the bump in prices has more to do with the baby boomers realizing their own mortality, and electing so spend their money on what they've always wanted.

 

Today more people are talking about what their car is worth that what they did with them or the parts they need, a most reliable indication the market is nearing a correction.

 

imo, once these cars are more commonly viewed as a business investment than a mere expensive toy for the old boy, the real buyers (enthusiasts) will drop out.
that will leave the investors with their cars, but no or less buyers with falling prices as a consequence

every market has his ups and downs, and so does the classic market.

the only guys who will always remain happy within this market are the guys who buy for pleasure, not business.
just my opinion

that said, i'm 24 years old and if i had the choice between a 275 gtb/4 or a 599, i'd go for the old boy.
enthusiast will always exist, and so will a moving marketplace

 

there was more land? where did it go? i had always thought that there was still about the same amount. did it break off and float away due to the earthquake? seriously, i hadn't heard about this, how could i have missed it?

now i understand why land prices in california

 

are the ones made in the late 1940s and early 1950s. They are rare, expensive, and only the wealthy can buy them. They have no real relationship to property values, or anything else, for that matter....

 

Don't buy "art" based upon investment value, buy it 'cuz you LIKE it!

Interesting discussion here......

 

Good points, but remember, we're still talking supply versus demand.

Supply is more or less fixed, Ferrari isn't going to make any more Daytonas or 275GTBs. The only way for prices to really rise is for new buyers to enter the market.

Granted, at 32 I've only seen the Ferrari world for about the last 10 years. What really surprised me were how many people I knew and recognized at Quail and Pebble a few weeks ago. They're the same ones that have been in this for a while.

Until the boomers get attracted to the older cars in mass, I only see low to moderate growth in the prices of the older cars. I agree with Stu, the old cars will continue to go up, but after seeing 0744 sell for around 5.6 mil, I'm not sure that market is red hot right now.

 

Page 55 of Pat Braden / Gerald Roushs definitive book on the Daytona: "The frame for example is built up from elementary sections of straight chrome-molybdenum tubing with are fitting in a jig and then welded up. And the body is not crunched out by Scaglietti using room-sized 450 ton double action presses. Rather it is painstakingly pieced together from small sheets of steel, each one formed by hand and fitted first to a full-scale wooden mock-up to check for uniformity. Then the pieces are welded together to produce the body and lathered with a thin coat of plastic filler covering hammer marks and weld lines....."

It goes on great detail including pictures of the cars being produced. There is no doubt or question about whether the Daytonas were hand built or manufactured via automated mass presses and such, the hand built nature of the cars is plainly apparent to anyone who has taken one apart of crawled around underneith one. I have one in my garage. I have crawled around underneith and worked on it extensively. If this car was mass produced.... some folks went to AMAZING lengths to fake hand built fabrication techniques. I dont know who this guy is who wrote the article your referencing.... but he was clearly wrong.

When the Daytona was put into production, it was impossible for Ferrari to afford the production costs to tool up for mass production. Giant sheet metal presses and the tooling to produce specific parts costs tens of millions of dollars even back in the day. Such techniques and tooling expenese were only possible later, after the FIAT buyout. The Daytona was in production BEFORE the FIAT deal was announced and it 18 months - 2 years before the FIAT money began to directly impact Ferrari production techniques relative to machine tools and presses and such.

As to Daytona prices, I think real estate values will have less of an impact than the greater collector car market driven by muscle cars. I feel that muscle car prices have for at least the past year been soaring into a realm purely driven by speculation and "investment". There are tens of thousands of new buyers who have never heard of the collector car crash of 1990. "Collectors" who are bidding cars to absurd values counting on said value to double yet again over the next year have created quite the bubble. When this pops.... and it will pop..... the entire collector car market will get pulled down including Ferraris, ALL vintage Ferraris.


The real estate "crash" that is beginning will NOT be a broad phenomenon. In places like California, Florida, DC and areas in the north east where home values have quadrupled or more over the last 5-6 years.... its going to get bloody. I could see value ultimately dropping by 50% or more. But that still leaves home values double where they were 6 years ago and while clearly some folks are going to get bitten, plenty of others have laughed all the way to the bank.

In the majority of the nation, like Houston or here in Atlanta, home values have appreciated over the past 5-6 years at a much more realistic 3%-5% rate. We have not seen the absurd speculation and crazy runups in price nor will we see any corrections. The market may go flat for a while and homes may take longer to sell (were already seeing that) but values are more likely to at least hold. So in MOST of the nation, real estate is not going to crush peoples balance sheets.

I may be wrong relative to values, and I agree that relative to the 275 or Lusso or such the Daytonas even at $250K represent a true value. They are phenomenal cars, among my favorite of all time. My thoughts on values decreasing have more to do with muscle car values and the overall market than anything to do specifically with the Daytona and its appeal.




Terry