Any upside to Daytonas left?

This thread intrigues me. As a dealer in these cars and Europe based I have had a theory for some years now that every time a certain tipo approaches its 40th birthday prices surge. Where did this start ? I suspect the F40 in 1987. Thence every time a 40th birthday fell due major annual events were and are centred around this car. The factory are as responsible for this as anybody. I suspected it with the 250 TDF, SWB & GTO but rather discounted owing to their rarity. However it was very obvious with the 250 Lusso and as we all know 275 values became crazy in 2004. I have predicted the rise of the 365 GTB/4 for several years purely on this basis. I speak and deal in GBP £ but I could never reach over the £100,000 for even the purest of cars. It was a psychological barrier. This year I have sold two Daytonas for GBP £145,000. I think that's about US$275,000. I am just a car salesman and there are many out there far more clever than I that have read this market and are thinking ahead to 2008. This obsession, if I may use that word seems to target only the 'Major' berlinettas and has so far by passed the likes of PF coupes, GTC,s and all 2+2's. However they have risen in the wake of the targeted cars perhaps as potential buyers could no longer justify the cost of their intended purchase.

Just an opinion but I think the cars will be selling for circa GBP £200,000 (US$380,000) by next summer but I think that will be the peak. Post 2008 I am sure they will fall back. My guess is by about 20%. I base this on the European Lusso market. Peaked at £235,000...now selling for £200,000 and the rapidly falling 275 values.

What will be next ? Boxers ? I don't know why but somehow I can't see it.

As for the Chinese, NEVER discount them. They have been collecting for years. We all know the big names but there are many others. It is the Chinese culture to be discreet and thus their enthusiasm is not broadcast. A great majority of them keep their classic Ferrari in Europe and regularly travel over here for the major events. You only have to look at the entry list of names for such events as the Tour Auto to see this. PB.

 

The current "chineese" we know are most people from Hong Kong and Taiwan. The chineese currently getting (very!) rich are from the mainland (like Beijing and Shanghai). So these are new and very rich chineese and spent a lot of money and are really "show off" The more you see it the better. They are not interested in vintage cars but new ferrari's lambo's audi's and maserati's (I never saw so many A8's in one place...). So if the chineese really getting interested in vintage cars, this will influence prices.
And pices falling of 275's??? First time I hear this in months,

regards
Oscar

 

Softening 275 market? Wasnt it in September that one went for $950K?

I have a hard time understanding how 275 values could be coming down as Daytonas would be going up. Seems to me that production numbers is a key metric.

Does anyone have any info on ANY Daytonas selling in the past couple of months? The auction scene just hasnt had any come to market that I have found (SCM).




Terry

 

Sheehan cut the price on his Daytona, but then we all knew that, right?

 

I still am of the view that some Chinese collectors will emerge. I have a Daytona, 288 GTO and F40 in Hong Kong and they get lots of attention from my Mainland friends (as does my E Type). It is very easy to keep an unregistered vintage car in HK and take it into China for events. The discussion about registration in China is irrelevant. I am also active in the Chinese contemporary art world and there is overlap - make money want beautiful things.

 

I wouldnt guage the market on that particular car, it seems like an example on the "well driven" side of a driver condition. AKA: spend LOTS if you want it to be really nice. Then again who knows?



Terry

 

What are the newly-rich Russians collecting, automobile-wise?

Seems like to me that to stand out from the pack, to show REAL taste and class, vintage cars of any distinguished marque would stand alongside old/modern master art in snob appeal, if not price.

Who knows, maybe there's even a potential Chinese market for 4-headlight 330's...among the considerably more downscale new money, of course.

 

New cars.

 

The problem I have with this post in the first place is that it is based on an extremely low N as the basis for predictions. How can you make any judgement on prices when one car has its price lowered or one car sells for an extremely high price. So far I have seen no evidence at all that the market is falling. Take a look at the number of cars such as the 275, 330, Lussos and Daytonas for sale relative to the number produced and you can have an idea of the demand. As for the prices. As I have always said the best cars change hands at a much higher price than you think and do so without hitting the market.

 

Boxers are fantastic pieces of styling and art, but aren't they just to new to be caught up in the vintage price increases yet? Is that what you mean by the 5 year timeline?

 

I think he's saying that, to him, it doesn't feel like it will happen to Boxers because they've always been cheap.

I remember the exact same logic being applied to Lussos 5 years ago, because they didn't perform as well as an SWB. And to the Daytona because they made too many of them.

YMMV...

 

Terry: I know you want to paint your Daytona just because you want to, and that you would do a lot, maybe all of the work yourself. Some time ago their was a thread which concluded that the cost to have it done ny a known shop would be about $25k. I have looked into this too, since I would like mine to be almost perfect. I think my car is about like yours in the paint department, my engine is stock, suspension is done. So I looked into it here in S.California. Consensus seems to be that the "real" cost of a strip it, take it all apart, do the rubber and chrome, make all the panels straight and paint it to be good enough for say Cavallino, but not Pebble, would be around $60k. At that point you may as well do the engine and leather which is all minewould need, lets say that is a total of $100 to $120k when all the "while we are at its" are included. Do I think this would add a comensurate value to my car? No, i dont. Would I like the result-yes, but....I will need that money to buy a boat to meet you in the Carribean,right? It sounds like fun, but I enjoy driving it too much to make it perfect and then not drive it.
Malcolm

 

Malcolm, having done this a few times with Daytonas (Spyders and Coupes) figure around $35K for a really nice paint job and some rust work if it's not too bad (that $35K is with a shop that wins Concours events). Yes, you can go to Junior and pay more, but it's not better. Chrome, as you found out, is either cheap or very, very expensive. If you want an overrestored car, it's take a long time to correctly build up the surface to chrome. That's why it gets very expensive for the best guys to do it. Interiors go from $15K to $35K depending on who does it and what materials they use. A real engine rebuild, not the "freshening up" $25K jobs, is closer to $50K and sometimes more if there are issues. Gearbox rebuilds tend to be $15K on the low-end (nothing major) to $30K (if you have a cracked case inside, need a new limited slip, etc.) So, be careful in digging in. I've been there, done that; more than once. My credit card melted.... But, when the work was done, it was stunning.

If you need some references where to go to get quality work done, just pm me.

Steve

 

I make no claims of being an authority in this market but I do work at the sharp end daily. I have read the interesting responses to my reply yesterday.

1. Make no mistake 275 prices are receeding. The last surge was due to investors and short term owners. They get bored and move on to other cars. A case of been there, done that etc.... Yes the 275's are worth considerably more than they were say 3 years ago but not what they were 1 year ago. Its like any market. The 'Investment' hits a peak. Profits are taken and the price falls. Most noticable with 4 cams than others and personally I find I receive more enquiries for the purest of all, the early short nose cars.

2. Lussos ??? I will never understand this market. I don't want to get into arguments but I consider that there were 362 Lusso built. I know the whereabouts of 287 and have sold 54 different chassis in the past 30 years. Some more than once. That's just an attempt to establish my credentials !

Forgetting the crazy prices of the late 1980's the Lusso hit its peak in 2002/2003 at GBP £235,000 ( USD$445,000 today's rate ? ). Now they are at GBP £200-205,000 ( say US$390,000 ). Again 40th anniversary is past and the odd profit taken. I have sold 3 at around this price this year and interestingly ALL have gone to Orange County CA to different and unconnected owners. We all compare the Lusso to the SWB as both a car and in financial equality and it is obvious from numbers built and lack of racing pedigree that the Lusso will always trail BUT why by so much ? If one was an alien landing on this planet and knew nothing about Ferrari 'Law' would you pay a minimum of 5 times more for a steel 250 SWB ? It simply doesn't make sense to me. I have the same thoughts regarding 250 GTE's but that's for another time.

3. Boxers ? personally I'm not a fan so probably biased. I always thought it came too late. Don't forget that Lamborghini were producing the Miura many years before the Boxer appeared. Having said this I think the current prices are ridiculously low. They are very difficult to sell and certainly in Europe many owners are holding on to them hoping for a sharp rise in the market. I have absolutely no idea what will happen. I think the main criteria is that the Daytona is perceived as the 'Cut off ' point for historic Ferrari. Last of then front engined 2 seater berlinettas....... I sold all Boxers when they were new and it was always difficult to convince a potential buyer that any BB was worth considerably more than a better handling, nearly as fast and better looking ( ? ) 308 GTB.

4. Chinese..... Not all the Chinese buyers are based in Hong Kong. I am getting more enquiries from mainland China today. In fact since the Chinese took over Hong Kong most of the major players have moved to the USA, Australia and Europe. I may be wrong but I think its a Chinese belief that if you have an old car it infers that you cannot afford a new one.....loss of face maybe but there will always be enthusiasts for the older cars wherever they live in this world.

PB.

 

Paul, I read your great comments with much appreciation that you have taken the time to write a meaningful post. Thank you. Points 1 and 2 are of great interest to me. I have no view on point 3. With respect to point 4, there are still lots of players in HK but HK is small. China is the future and there is huge emerging interest IMO. A 5 year old car MAY infer that you cannot afford a new one but a vintage Ferrari is recognised as a work of art

 

By the way I was at SPS in Hong Kong today and they have brought in a LHD Daytona with plexiglass to restore and presumably resell. That must be a sign that they see strength in the market. The LHD car cannot be registered in HK

 

If I do the paint, I will do all the disassembly and 90% of the prep work myself. My car doesnt have any rust and doesnt need to be stripped to bare metal, but I do want to sand off down to the factory filler coat and then build back from there. Ive done lots of this sort of work before and it is VERY time consuming.... I would have Bo Pirkle do the final prep plus shoot the paint and then wet sand it and buff it.

Anyhow, I havent decided if I will do this or not. Will depend on how other projects go and such but I do really want too!




Terry

 

Terry, save your money and go with us to Jost for New Years...your Daytona looks great just as it is... like others said, if you make it "perfect", you will then be too scared to drive it.

 

I know.... im wrestling with this. But dammit, its not BLUE. I want it to be Dino Blue as it was the day it was delivered new. I LOVE that color. My 308 was that color and its among the best colors I have ever seen on ANY Ferrari.

Still, when I stand looking at the current paint job I have a hard time picturing taking a sanding block to it. I've never repainted a car that has a great paint job to begin with....


Terry
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Terry: I forgot to say-leave it alone, your car looks great and there is no way to make out on it except, well-just to do it! Yours does look a little dowdy next to that yellow one though.
Regards
Malcolm

 

AAhhhhhhhh I would have beaten the punk who owns that yellow one in the concours if he would only have let me borrow his tool roll real quick while the judges were not looking.... (btw, I still have some tools to locate to complete my tool roll.... any ideas on where to try?)

As far as making out on it financially, a complete repaint wouldnt cost me a ton in $$$ (though it wouldnt be cheap) because I would do most of it myself. But if I were to measure the hours it would take me.... well, lets just say that in the name of preserving my mental health I would avoid doing such a thing!

I painted my '63 E-Type myself many years back and the final product was among the best paint jobs I have ever seen anywhere. But I had over 500 hours into it when done... Good paint is tedious.



Terry

 

Terry, I depend on TomS for tools, he knows what is correct and generally has it somewhere if he can just find it.He is also a very nice curmudgeon so we always have a laugh. I will see him soon if you want to tell me what you need I willask for you. Of course, if you do the work yourself then it might be very satisfieng to have a perfect car. How is the new coupe?
Malcolm

 

It never ceases to amaze me that we need to continually tinker with our cars,make them a bit better, make them a bit more correct....I have two daytonas, and I have been tinkering with them for quite a long time, and am never fully satisfied. I am now redying a steering wheel, as one I sent for restoration some time ago, came back not in great shape. Terry, do what turns you on...and keep spending your money on that car..it can only be better when you finish, if you ever finish restoring it. After all it is your money and you should be able to spend it any way it makes you happy. And doing the work yourself, priceless.