Apocolypse narrowly averted last night | Page 2 | FerrariChat

Apocolypse narrowly averted last night

Discussion in 'Other Off Topic Forum' started by WILLIAM H, Jul 3, 2006.

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  1. darth550

    darth550 Six Time F1 World Champ
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    I can understand W's motivation but WTF??? :confused:
     
  2. DGS

    DGS Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    Do you know the wastage in the semiconductor industry from the imperfections in crystals made in a gravity field?

    One thing our nominial orbital efforts (skylab, mir, shuttle) has managed to accomplish is to show the benefit of microgravity materials in the semiconductor and biochemistry fields -- on a theoretical basis.

    The biggest obstacle to production microgravity materials is the prohibitive cost of lofting the raw materials out of the gravity well.

    An asteroid of raw materials in LEO would be worth its weight in unobtanium.

    All that money and resources flying by, and people want to hide. Or blow it up. :rolleyes:

    Oh, and forget solar sails. A laser drill boring into the rock would blow vaporized rock out of the bore hole, providing small but constant thrust.

    And the excavated caverns would be hugely better than the flying soda cans we call space stations: no flying space junk is going to puncture a couple of feet of rock.

    --
    For the Bruce Willis fans: "Armegeddon" had a perfect record: It didn't get one single technical detail right.
     
  3. Etcetera

    Etcetera Two Time F1 World Champ
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    Ahh, the Ricambi Mission to Outta Space to get NLA Ferrari parts!
     
  4. bradg33

    bradg33 Karting

    Apr 1, 2005
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    Ok, So i've been thinking about this and I figure that Just in case we can't get Bruce Willis to go to space again, and if Steven Tyler dies, cartoons hold the answer. We'll just get us a really big bowl, and when the astroid comes close, we'll just hold it up so the astroid goes into the bowl and loops around and right back out to space. This would be a very viable Missile Defense System as well. Screw the "Star Wars" system of the Reagen days, we'll have the new "Tupperware System". D@mn I'm smart!
     
  5. Etcetera

    Etcetera Two Time F1 World Champ
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    Just shows you know nothing. Tuppaware won't hold up to the cosmic energies involved. You will need cast iron lined with Teflon.
     
  6. 62 250 GTO

    62 250 GTO F1 Veteran

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    Neil


    Check your own damn facts Chicken Little.

    As far as the Universe is concerned, we are in a tiny back water town with one flashing street light and guess what, that street is called Main Street.

    Jupiter gets hit because it's massive and waaayyyy the hell out there. Part of it's job for us IS to be smashed in the teeth by anyhing that comes close. It is one of the best defenses we have.

    The Earth is 4.5 Billion years old. How old are humans? Right, we have lived a very, very short life span so far and if something big enough was headed our way and it was large enough to destroy Earth, we wouldn't be able to do anything no matter how many sails we had.

    Our 5,975,000,000,000,000,000,000 tonnes is holding up just fine so far.

    Humans will destroy the Earth long before any big ass rocks land here.

    A 1 kilometer wide object that weighs about 200 lbs per cubic foot traveling at 20 kms per second could impact this planet with a force approximately 15 times larger than the world's whole nuclear weapons stash. An object about 1/3 that size going about 3 times faster will have about the same impact.

    The Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena California keeps track of short distant objects. I would be more worried about the long distance objects as the usually travel much faster, can be much smaller and still do more damage. NASA plans to start keeping track of long distance objects in the next 2 or 3 decades. The warning of LDO's could be as much as a year, depending on speed.

    "A long-period object by definition may not have any records of sightings in written history," said Mazanek. "If it came back into the solar system and it was on [an Earth-bound trajectory], we would not have much warning." - Dan Mazanek, an engineer at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia.

    Also, if you are going to be afraid of things hitting us, be a fraid of things closer and more recent like asteroid 2002 EM7. It came within 500,000 kms of earth {300,000 miles}, a little farther out than the moon, and it was about 200 feet wide.

    """Asteroid 2002 NT7, detected on July 9 in New Mexico, could strike earth on Feb. 1, 2019. Although once there is more data on its orbit, it could turn out that it will not hit earth. This asteroid has an orbital period around the sun of 837 days and 1.2 miles wide, giving it enough kinetic energy to be a doomsday asteroid. This asteroid is large enough do wipe out most of mankind. And a very dangerous asteroid about a half-mile wide (2002 NY40) passes by earth at 330,000 miles out on August 18, 2002. So it passes by earth at a bit farther out than the distance to the moon. If it did strike earth it would not be an ELE Extinction Level Event (ELE), but the impact and explosion could cause a major decrease in the human population and giant tidal waves that would swamp the coasts of the earth's continents.
    And there are probably a lot of similar small asteroids that will pass close to earth, but they are unknown now and will likely only be noticed as they get close to earth. It could be that our solar system is now entering a region of space that is full of a lot of comets and meteors, so an earth collision soon could be more likely. What is needed is a major international effort to determine the orbits of small asteroids that could come close to earth, by using a network of telescopes around the earth. The more telescopes you use, and the larger they are, the faster this would be accomplished-- identifying and determining the orbits of these asteroids. The other thing that is needed is to develop a space intercept system, to intercept and deflect asteroids or comets headed for the earth, so they cannot impact and explode on earth. Unfortunately, there is no major effort to detect the asteroids, or to develop the interceptor system. However, NASA has developed the Deep Impact spacecraft, which arrived at and hit Comet Tempel 1 on July 4 2005; and when it hit it blasted a crater in it with explosive power equal to 4.5 tons of TNT. Deep Impact is a scientific mission to study comets, but it also developed and demonstrated some of the technology to blast off course a comet or asteroid headed for earth. But what should be done, is to fund NASA to develop a larger spacecraft on a faster schedule, to intercept and deflect a comet or asteroid headed for earth with a nuclear H-bomb blast. A spacecraft that moves really fast is need, to get there as soon as possible, to blast it off course before it gets near earth. The Deep Impact Mission was funded at about $300 million. So it seems that for a few billion $ NASA could develop an asteroid defense spacecraft with a nuclear weapon. You want to have several of the interceptor spacecraft, not just one, since the survival of earth is at stake."""

    So stop being babies and get as much money as you can because when you die, you want to die rich, even if you die from old age.
     
  7. 62 250 GTO

    62 250 GTO F1 Veteran

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    Oh and P.S. we are not a target. If anything hits us it will not be a planed assult, just a 1 in a 4.5 Billion shot.
     
  8. Sfumato

    Sfumato F1 World Champ

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    That's better odds than Carb getting a...nevermind :D
    And Korr, the cast iron lined with Teflon is for everyone's pants right before it hits.
    Mebbe Hans Brix, Big Al Queda, and Dim Dung Ill can declare war on it. Rock on Jihad on Rock?
     
  9. WILLIAM H

    WILLIAM H Three Time F1 World Champ

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    Heres an article from Wilkpedia re asteroids & their risk BTW see the bottom where it states an 10 meter asteroid impacted the Earth in 2002 and exploded in the atmosphere over the Mediterranean Sea w the impact of a medium sized Nuke

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near-Earth_asteroid

    The NEA threat
    The general acceptance of the Alvarez hypothesis, explaining the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event as the result of a large asteroid or comet impact event, has raised the awareness of the possibility of future Earth impacts with asteroids that cross the Earth's orbit.

    The threat of an Earth impact was emphasized by the collision of the comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 with Jupiter on July 16, 1994.

    On March 23, 1989 the 300 metre (1,000-foot) diameter Apollo asteroid 4581 Asclepius (1989 FC) missed the Earth by 700,000 kilometres (400,000 miles) passing through the exact position where the earth was only 6 hours before. If the asteroid had impacted it would have created the largest explosion in recorded history.

    Asteroids with a 1 kilometre diameter hit the Earth a few times in each million year interval. Large collisions with 5 kilometre objects happen approximately once every ten million years. Small collisions occur a few times each month.

    Although there have been a few false alarms, a number of asteroids are definitely known to be threats to the Earth. Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA was lost after its discovery in 1950 since not enough observations were made to allow plotting its orbit, and then rediscovered on December 31, 2000. Proper calculation of its orbit then demonstrated that it has a potential Earth impact on March 16, 2880. (29075) 1950 DA has a diameter of roughly a kilometre.

    On March 18, 2004, LINEAR announced a 30 metre asteroid 2004 FH which would pass the Earth that day at only 42,600 km (26,500 miles), about one-tenth the distance to the moon, and the closest miss ever noticed. They estimated that similar sized asteroids come as close about every two years.

    It is difficult to determine the chances of an impact more accurately. The uncertainty is due to minor irregularities in the Sun's shape, and so its gravitational field; weakening of the Sun's gravity through mass loss from energy radiated and the solar wind of particles that streams out from its atmosphere; uncertainties in the masses and so the gravitational pull of the planets; variations in the tidal pull of the surrounding galaxy; the subtle pressure of sunlight; and, in particular, a phenomenon known as the "Yarkovsky effect".

    This effect was discovered by a Russian engineer named I. O. Yarkovsky a century ago. It is a subtle process: the heating of the asteroid's surface causes it to emit thermal radiation, which creates a slight amount of thrust. It is somewhat unpredictable, since an asteroid's ability to soak up heat from the Sun depends on its terrain, and the effect is also influenced by the asteroid's pole direction and rotation rate.

    [edit]
    Projects to ameliorate the threat
    Astronomers have been conducting surveys to locate the NEAs. One of the best-known is the LINEAR which began in 1996. By 2004 LINEAR was discovering tens of thousands of objects each year and accounting for 70% of all asteroid detections. LINEAR uses two one-metre telescopes and one half-metre one based in New Mexico.

    Spacewatch, which uses an old 90 centimetre telescope sited at the Kitt Peak Observatory in Arizona, updated with automatic pointing, imaging, and analysis equipment to search the skies for intruders, was set up in 1980 by Tom Gehrels and Dr. Robert S. McMillan of the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory of the University of Arizona in Tucson, and is now being operated by Dr. McMillan. The Spacewatch project has acquired a 1.8 metre telescope, also at Kitt Peak, to hunt for NEAs, and has provided the old 90 centimetre telescope with an improved electronic imaging system with much greater resolution, improving its search capability. These new resources promise to increase the rate of NEA discoveries by Spacewatch from 20 to 30 a year to 200 or more.

    Other near-earth asteroid tracking programs include Near-Earth Asteroid Tracking (NEAT), Lowell Observatory Near-Earth-Object Search (LONEOS), Catalina Sky Survey, Campo Imperatore Near-Earth Objects Survey (CINEOS), Japanese Spaceguard Association, and Asiago-DLR Asteroid Survey.

    "Spaceguard" is the name for these loosely affiliated programs, some of which receive NASA funding to meet a U.S. Congressional requirement to detect 90% of near-earth asteroids over 1 km diameter by 2008. A 2003 NASA study of a follow-on program suggests spending US$250-450 million to detect 90% of all near-earth asteroids 140 metres and larger by 2028.

    Nonetheless, the fact that an impact of an NEA a kilometre or more in size would be a catastrophe unparalleled in human history has kept the idea of a defensive network alive, as well as led to speculations on how to divert objects that might be a threat. Detonating an explosive nuclear device above the surface of an NEA would be one option, with the blast vaporizing part of the surface of the object and nudging it off course with the reaction. This is a form of nuclear pulse propulsion.

    However, it is becoming increasingly obvious that many asteroids are "flying rubble piles" that are loosely glued together, and a nuclear detonation might just break up the object without adjusting its course. In some ways, being struck with a loose cloud of smaller asteroids is worse than being struck with just one big one.[citation needed] This has led to a variety of other ideas for dealing with the threat:

    Setting up "mass drivers" on the object to scoop up dusty material and shoot it away, giving the object a slow, steady nudge.
    Flying a big sheet of reflective aluminize PET film to wrap itself around the asteroid, acting as a "solar sail" to use the pressure of sunlight to shift the object's orbit.
    Dusting the object with powdered chalk or soot to perform a similar adjustment, utilising the Yarkovsky effect.
    Thinking on the matter continues - see Asteroid deflection strategies - and while there is no prospect of immediate action, the issue isn't going away.

    As our space technology and space infrastructure advance, our choices improve. For example, it might become possible to bring asteroids (that are not flying rubble piles) to orbits near Earth, then maneuver them so that their small gravitational influence can move the NEAs to orbits that do not threaten us.

    [edit]
    An example of a recent asteroid impact
    On June 6, 2002 an object with an estimated diameter of 10 metres collided with Earth. The collision occurred over the Mediterranean Sea, at approximately 34°N 21°E and the object detonated in mid-air. The energy released was estimated (from infrasound measurements) to be equivalent to 26 kilotons of TNT, comparable to a medium-size nuclear weapon [1]. At that time India and Pakistan were at a heightened state of alert, ready to initiate a nuclear war with each other. If this asteroid impact had hit in this area the results might have been catastrophic.
     
  10. WILLIAM H

    WILLIAM H Three Time F1 World Champ

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    Well there are 2 great reasons to have colonies elsewhere in case human or an asteroid or something else leave the Earth unhabitable for us
     
  11. judge4re

    judge4re F1 World Champ

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    It costs me around $9k to fly round trip to Tokyo on a plane that is older than me. Yet you think that getting everyone off this place (all 5+ billion of us) should be something we work towards?
     
  12. WILLIAM H

    WILLIAM H Three Time F1 World Champ

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    No, but our population is spiking and 12 B people will use up the resources of this small planet 100% faster than 6 B people. When we reach 10B + it would be in our best interest to send a few billion to colonize Mars & start acquiring resources there

    Its simple we either go off & start exploiting off world resources in th 21st C to feed an ever growing human population or get ready for awful wars & starvation as we use up all the resources of Earth.
     
  13. Etcetera

    Etcetera Two Time F1 World Champ
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    It would be cheaper and more effective just to nuke cities with ultra high populations.
     
  14. WILLIAM H

    WILLIAM H Three Time F1 World Champ

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    well that would stop global warming & replace it with nuclear winter. If we start that I would suggest starting w North Korea & Iran
     
  15. Ryan S.

    Ryan S. Two Time F1 World Champ
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    kind of sad how many of you dont want to do anything about stuff like this.....And dont think the nasa logo and orbital diagram of 1950DA in my profile make me biased lol....
     
  16. Ryan S.

    Ryan S. Two Time F1 World Champ
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    Sir Typestomuch,
    Its not about destroying earth, its about destroying Humanity. I my friend would like humanity to survive. But it doesnt matter to me if we survive on earth or mars, all that matters is that humans survive.
     
  17. Ryan S.

    Ryan S. Two Time F1 World Champ
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    how can anyone argue against spending a little bit of cash on something that could, or rather, will save humans one day?
     
  18. Ryan S.

    Ryan S. Two Time F1 World Champ
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    Im sure they have something, whether its good or not is another question.
     
  19. Ryan S.

    Ryan S. Two Time F1 World Champ
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    also, please buy stock in SpaceDev(ticker:SPDV), the price is way to low. If you wanna save humans, youll buy this stock lol...
     
  20. WILLIAM H

    WILLIAM H Three Time F1 World Champ

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    To be honest NASA & DC have done a real diservice to space exploration

    They should just get out of the way & subsidize privateers the way the govts subsidized early aircraft design and air postal delivery which is what really launched private air travel in the US

    The market for space tourism is truly immense, easily in the tens of Billions according to NASA & other studies
     
  21. WILLIAM H

    WILLIAM H Three Time F1 World Champ

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    already have several 1,000 shares, made good $ trading it too :)

    I bought 10,000 at $0.64 & sold it at $2.25 :)
     
  22. Zupra

    Zupra F1 Rookie

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    Share the wealth :)
     
  23. Admiral Thrawn

    Admiral Thrawn F1 Rookie

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    Have fun.

    http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/

    The recent 'near-miss' asteroid was approx half a mile (~800 metres) in diameter.

    Some assumptions: Rocky asteroid (2000kg/m^3), nominal speed of 20km/s, impact angle 45 degrees.

    The pdf which can you download from the site explaining the calculator has some really interesting stuff.
     
  24. Etcetera

    Etcetera Two Time F1 World Champ
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    So put your inherited money where your mouth is. Fund a floater and save us all. You got the money, you got the mouth. Do the math.
     
  25. judge4re

    judge4re F1 World Champ

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    It's about risk management, a project like this is huge money for something that is very unlikely to happen.

    As for NASA, I will say that we have a tendency where I work not to hire people that worked there, we've found them not to be results oriented. The culture has changed since Wernher von Braun was asked to go away...
     

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