Barrett-Jackson ejects Keith Martin/For all you Barrett-Jackson fans...

Keith Martin's article, at least to me, is his "last word" to Craig Jackson. He's hitting Jackson where it hurts the most: saying that muscle cars are trending down in value. I'm not sure I necessarily agree with the statement that the market is cooling for muscle cars, but I agree that: a)Barrett-Jackson's pricing (which is different than the other 359 days of the year) on muscle cars is going cold...and b)that by Keith Martin writing this in the NYT, it really hits hard and causes the B-J market to go ICE cold for the Palm Beach auction and next year's Scottsdale.

As for identifying shill bidders -- it's VERY hard to do at a huge auction. You would be looking for someone that doesn't seem to fit the usual bidder profile...so all you can do is look for someone who didn't seem to inspect the cars on which he is bidding, and to look for someone who doesn't give much information regarding his personal collection (and sometimes doesn't interact at all) with other bidders. You'd also possibly see a difference in the way that the bidder's assistants work, but I'd guess that usually the BAs are not in on it, so they would treat a shill the same way.

Since I've never personally caught a shill bidder, this is all simply unsubstantiated opinion, so please take it with a grain of salt!!!

 

That's not what I said. I didn't say that KM was unaware of shills, but rather I said that KM probably didn't know how to spot them in 2003. See my post #114.

...and yes, there are ways to spot shills. #1 is knowing to look for "tells." This is not easy. Very few auction bidders can do it, and even fewer poker players can swing it.

But that was my point...that it wasn't easy to spot a shill. Also, by 2006, KM was giving seminars and writing on how to spot them. To me, he learned something between 2003 and 2006 (imagine that!).

In contrast, this thread has now gone from:

to:

 

Someone watching the auctioneer rather than the car when it first rolls on to the block might be a clue to a shill.

 

Good thinking, No Doubt. The auctioneer might be "looking" for a specific shill.

No Doubt is probably a really good poker player!!!

 

The shills are probably the phone and internet bidders....Shills you don't even have to pay because....they don't exist! Brilliant!!

Jack

 

By jove, I think you got it (or at least part of it)! The auctioneer can announce any figure as a bid without it being real. He knows (or at least has a damn good idea) exactly which of his "friends" will really pay what amount for a certain car.

 

In the BJ tent, with the thousands of bidders and spectators, the echoing sound system and the inane yammering of the livestock auctioneers, you wouldn't have a clue who is bidding at all. There are a bunch of "Auction assistants" out in the crowd, a row of proxy phone bidders onstage and the ever present "bidder in the skybox". The auctioneer creates a frenzy of noise even when there is no action and convenient opening bids materialize right around the 30 second mark. Shill biddders are as anonymous as the girl at the other end of the phone sex line. You couldn't spot them for anything - not in that environment and the BJ folks understand that. They will bid against you to raise the price as long as they think you want the car. That's just basic auction practice.
I have bought cars there over the years and I have always known to the last dollar how high I'm prepared to go. I never buy muscle, always European (Ferrari, Mercedes, Jaguar etc) which don't really have huge interest at BJ and I've picked up some good stuff.
The danger in any bidding contest you enter is where the seller recognizes that you want the car and bids against you. His risk is that you stop before he has you figured out and he ends up up buying his own car back for a paltry 20% commission to BJ.

The RM auction is a very different thing entirely. The auctioneer speaks english not gibberish, you can see everyone in the room and they take their time. There is never any doubt as to who is "on" and who is out at any time. They are gentlemen who work hard for their sellers but they don't don't pressure the buyers. I am happy to spend lots of time and money there. They are a class act, they have great cars and you don't need a shower after shaking Rob Myer's hand.

 

When the auctioneer invents a bid out of thin air, it is called a chandelier bid. There are ways to spot this.

When the auctioneer (or the owner of the car) has a shill bid up the vehicle, there's actually a person physically in the room. This is very different from the chandelier bid. These two methods, chandelier bidding and shill bidding, accomplish the same thing (i.e. bump up the bid), but they do so in different ways with different risks to the scammers (both methods are scams).

Spotting a shill is something that I consider to be difficult. This was why I questioned you on the matter, and I suspect that at this point you've abandoned your earlier notion that such a thing was easy and that lots of people (even here on Fchat) can do it.

For that matter, it takes (at least for someone like me) an enormous amount of concentration to even be able to tell if the bump came from a shill or a chandelier.

But if there is an easy way to do it that is known to lots of people, by all means please share it here now.

And if not, then please recognize that we're talking about something that precious few people will ever be able to do, even KM (though he's apparently on it now as seen in his recent seminars and writing).

Perhaps you know a professional poker player who can show you some generic "tells." If so, that should give you a first blush at the difficulty of the concept of spotting a shill.

 

No Doubt is correct ..the intro of 'phone' and 'internet' bidding is where it ran off the rails.......

If you banned that it'd be eyball to eyeball...everybody in the same room...

 

No Doubt is correct ..the intro of 'phone' and 'internet' bidding is where it ran off the rails.......

If you banned that it'd be eyball to eyeball...everybody in the same room...

 

Tex, my concept of a fair auction is that there is a cute girl raising a paddle at each phone and internet terminal so that the bidders who are physically in the auction room can see that a bid has come in from the outside.

For that matter, bidders physically in the room have the right to know who is bidding against them (even if for privacy that's limited to a bidder #). As a bidder, if you don't know who placed the last raise against you, you're supposed to be able to ask your bidding assistant to show you your competition...even if they have to delay the auction for the answer.

That's not happening at BJ. Jackson's got all of the billionaires cowed. Those guys are scared to death of him.

They're doing us all a disservice by bidding again even when they haven't identified who just bid against them (a technique that limits what sort of shill and chandelier nonsense can be used against you at any given auction).

 

Words to live by. No Doubt, this is the real protection against shills, knowing what you are doing. Personally, I don't have any sympathy for drunk bidders or those who are having a good time spending their money. Let's face it. Auctions are all about greed. Buyers are hoping to steal a car. Sellers are hoping to get more for their car than it is worth. If the "green mist" causes temporary insanity, it is all part of the disorderly redistribution of wealth.

Dale

 

Thanks to food poisoning, I actually was able to watch more of the auction this year than I planned.

While I will not get into the arguments for or against auction practices, but it's not a good sign that so many outright fake cars are getting big bucks. There is a lot of money chasing too few good cars (you boomers managed to have a good run and are trying to spend it on something nice before or right at retirement age), but this is bad for the long term health of the hobby.

 

I'm not really speaking of being an expert in deteciting "methodology", but simply anyone who isn't aware of the BS that has been going on for years is rather nieve.

I really don't think it is that difficult to become aware of what is real and what is fake if you have been around for a while. It's a matter of watching closely, and gettting to know who a bidder's friends are (including members of the auction house).

It's all a big game, with those new to it or without tons of money and connections having any real chance.

Even when you ARE aware of a situation, it is difficult to change anything unless you can provide a substantial amount of proof of things that are illegal.

Reminds me of the Bush administration; they go on and on and on, no matter what they do, and even with 80% of the country aware of what they are doing and against it.

 

I disagree. There's a story about a car salesman who ends up paying above market for a house, thinking that he was a better negotiator than his skills conveyed. That's most bidders.


You *really* need to go to Wikipedia and search for poker "tells." Spotting a shill is just not something that you will be able to do simply after attending auctions for years.

People go to Vegas for decades without learning to spot "tells."

Spotting a shill is difficult. There's more to it than just being experienced.

If you can't name the "tells" for an auction shill, for instance, then rest assured that you can't spot a shill.

Pretending that a complicated thing is "easy" is how lots of people get into trouble. It's how one becomes a mark.

 

No, that sort of thinking will just lend false confidence. *Every* bidder lies to himself that he knows precisely when to stop bidding. That's just human nature.

If you really knew, then you wouldn't be nervous at the auction as there would be no drama for you. Humans aren't that mechanical, though.

And as for drunk buyers overpaying...well, that depends on whether they are overpaying legitimately or if they are overpaying because they are being scammed. We have laws against the later for a reason, after all.

Nor are auctions about "greed" as you claim, either. A monied buyer should be attending an auction for quality, publicity, and convenience. Think Christies or Sothebies.

Sellers should be using auctions for liquidity, finality (all sales final), and as a wall against endless tire-kicking questions. What monied Seller wants to answer belt-change questions from an 18 year old (who may be in a 50 year old body)?!

 

I think we're calling them "tribute cars" now.......

Jack

 

A fake is a fake is a fake is a fake...

 

Shill bidding?

If your car was going through the auction at a no reserve sale, would you ask a friend to start off the bidding and get out at a certain price? Why wouldn't you?

At all the dealer auctions this goes on all the time.

 

I think Jack is speaking more about the new Shelbys (and the like) that are a tribute to the couple of year old Shelbys (and the like) to the original Shelbys (and the like)

 

No, I'd be to concerned about being charged with fraud. If I were an auction establishment that had a practice of "phantom" bidding I'd also be worried that some clever civil lawyer would convince a jury to award a monumental punitive damages award to someone.

 

It's an unprovable crime. In the absence of a contract with the shill a prosecuor, or civil lawyer would never be able to convince a jury that an auction like BJ is rigged

 

Unprovable? Ever heard of Sammy Gravano? All it takes is a disaffected employee, associate whatever and a investigation/prosecutoin team interested in going after this practice. All it takes to get this kind of team is a persistant and credible complainant.

 

Forgot to mention that I am not saying any specific auction firm is doing any of this. I'm merely saying that, in my opinion, such practice, if conducted, carries with it a significant risk of civil and/or criminal liability.

 

I agree.

You could easily have a class action lawsuit from bidders who could use as little as a single witness (e.g. shill, auction employee, etc.) plus the video of the event.

Trial lawyers have knocked Big Tobacco sideways...auction houses are small fries in comparison.

The auction house would owe *all* of the bidders the full amount of overpayment due to shills, plus potential punitive damages.

...the Futureliner fiasco alone is a taped example that could come back to haunt BJ. Once the trial lawyer asks an auctioneer to produce the $4M bidder and the $3.9M bidder, the fireworks would really start.

Either the auction house had the real bidders or not. For the taped auctions, this is pretty black and white.