Bird Flu? What's your opinion?

I think it's a bunch of hype. My GF and her sister think the world is going to end. I like how the media reminds people of what happened in the flu pandemic of 1918. I'm not a health expert but aren't we in 2006? There's so many health advances nowadays that it's almost impossible for you to not survive something. I believe Tamiflu has found a cure for one type of flu strand which I think is some progress...

 

I didn't read all of that but I thought the way you got really sick from it was to be around sick birds. So shouldn't the people really worried be the people that farm birds and not the general population? I guess they could then spread it but I don't see how it could be that widespread. If they start feeling sick they should be checked and watched.

Am I wrong? Is it just floating through the air now?

I don't know about you guys but I can't really remember the last time I made contact with a wild bird.

 

I'm not worried about it.

 

The flu is a virus. There are no cures for any virus in the world.

The media is hyping it up. They say whatever they have to say to get viewers attention. The odds of you getting crushed to death by an 18 wheeler tomorrow on the way to work is a lot higher than catching bird flu.

 

When it becomes apparent that we have localized epidemics in the U.S. I'll worry about it. Fortunately we're a bit smarter than the black plaque days.

 

It's my understanding that Bird Flu is presently at the point where it can transmit from birds/animals to humans.

Once it gains the ability to transmit from human to human through casual contact, then we'll have a problem.

 

"Bird flu can be avoided by not choking chickens."

Confucius, 535 B.C.

 

drive your F-car this summer like it is your last on earth...(look at the bright side...I going to skip my belt change....)

 

Is it Contagous???? I was right near one on the way to work this morning.........it even had mud flaps that said 'back off' with yosimite sam, I knew it was a sign.......oh god, I feel woozey...................

 

Slow day in the media... hype up some rare illness that is going to kill us all...

-Peter

 

the spanish flue pandemic started in march 1918, origin was traced to Kansas. from there it was spread to France by arriving U.S. soldiers, by July they thought the worst was over. only by November did the plauge break out worldwide.
for reasons unknown still today it primarily attacked the young and killed them, age 20~40. the flue was introduced to western Samoa by ship on November 7, 1918 and within 2mnths 20% of the population died. hardest hit was philadelphia by mid october 1918 they were short 5000 caskets every 2hrs! they had has many as ten times the bodies as caskets. the current thinking is that the death toll was near 100million! in perspective the spanish flue killed more people in a year than the black death of the middle ages killed in a century. Will it happen again?

it has been 35yrs since the last influenze pandemic and the longest recorded interval is 39yrs, most think it will originate out of China from the farming communities. science today has good and bad news, antibiotics can cut the mortality from secondary bacterial pneumonias, and certain meds can be effective against some flue strains. the bad???? well flu immunizations are spotty and let's not forget the shortage of 2004, conditions prevail today has they did in 1918. global travel, war zones, malnutrition and poor hygiene, the world populace is at 6 1/2 billion and growing, most live in urban decay with no waste removal facilities. Each year brings a closer to the brink...

not trying to scare you all but we have the luxury of living in a clean area however most of the world does not, with the advent of global travel and more people working here for the lure of a better lifestyle these concerns grow. travelers bring many things including deases when they travel, fact of life. it would spread fast and deadly, the econimic impact will be huge and the medical field will have a near impossible time keeping pace with it.

bottom line, not much of anything has changed since 1918, only more people living in decay. do the math and it is sobering!

 

Maybe I can help a little bit as well. Scott made some very good points, but to further elaborate, the flu is a virus, and can mutate, which is why 30,000 (+/-) people die in the US alone of the flu every year. However, there are two types of mutation. Antigenic drift is due to random mutations, and this is what they are trying to protect you against when you get your annual flu shot. They take the strains that went around last year, and predict what the mutations on those strains will be for this year. Thus, flu shots are quite effective at protecting against the annual flu.

However, what they are worried about with the bird flu is called antigenic shift. This is where the flu mutates by swapping genetic material with another flu strain. For example, if somoeone in rural China were to be infected with a human/human flu virus, and then gets infected with the avian flu virus--asuming that he doesn't die quickly--there is a chance that both viruses infect the same cells and a antigenic shift takes place that gives a new strain that has the virulence factors of the avian flu and the ability to transmit human to human from the "common" flu. This is where we have a problem.

The biggest reason that they are scared about this year's bird flu strain is its mortality rate. During the 1918 pandemic, the strain transmitted very effectively form person to person, and had approximately a 5% mortality rate. This killed over 50million people worldwide, and some estimates are higher. However, in people that have been infected with this year's avian flu, the mortality rate has been somewhere around 50%. If this were to experience a genetic shift to become transmitted human/human the results could be disastrous indeed.

I am not chicken little, but the flu virus is something that everyone should be concerned about, and take appropriate steps to prevent. To be clear, a flu shot does NOT protect you against avian flu. However, by getting a flu shot and otherwise protecting yourself from the common flu, you essentially eliminate yourself as a person who could be infected with both types of flu and be the cause of antigenic shift. The more people that get vaccinated, the less chances the bird flu has to mutate if you get infected. As stated earlier, we are overdue for another flu pandemic, and when time passes, people tend to get lax about it or forget how bad it can be. The question is not if the next pandemic will occur, but when.

Have a lovely day!

Eric

 

I'm more concerned about what our president said he'd do if a pandemic occured then a hyped up flu. What the media and the Feds don't tell you is that people who have contracted it(which totals to about um, like 20 in the entire world) is that they practically sleeping with chickens in unsanitary conditions.

 

Ahh...but what people don't take into consideration is the fact that those that have been infected so far live in squallor. They have little if any medical help and are dirt poor. I am not saying that the avian flu is no biggie, but I think that the mortality tables will shift greatly once there is an outbreak in a non 3rd world country with 4th world medical care.