Bottom price predictions for current Ferrari models?

my predictions

1990 348ts in 2006 : $35k - $40k
1994 456 in 2006: $50k
1995 355B in 2006: $65k
1997 550 in 2006: $75k
1999 360 (6spd) in 2006: $80k

 

I predict that the older cars (about 1995, and older), will possibly surpass the newer ones in value. I know this sounds rather silly, but let me explain.

I have had 8 Ferraris, and have always been able to do all of the maintanence on them.........the newest one is an 88 TR. The new cars are laden with integrated electronic controls, that, working on most of their systems requires the SD-2 computer.......ONLY available at the dealer.........to MOST of us. The tech section is full of examples of people having "electronic" problems with their newer cars, and have to take them to the dealer to fix, at insane prices. As the mileage increases, so will the problems.

I would be afraid of buying a newer car, out of warrantee, just because of the potential need to have to take it to the dealer........OUCH!!!!!!!! So, this kind of car would would not be worth much to me. Fortunately, there are many older Ferraris which can fullfill most buyers needs.

 

Excellent post, plus, throw in the potential for even bigger bucks to spend on the girly shifters. Assuming you can find parts many years down the road.

 

Current-model pricing is, in my opinion, based on two factors:

Gotta-Have-It Hype
Supply vs. Demand

Current prices on 360 spyders are rediculous. There is a huge demand for convertibles, the must-have weekend toy for Monied novices, who aren't necessarily Ferrari enthusiasts. I'll wager that only half of the F1 tranny owners actually use the paddle shifts, because the ones that don't do NOT know how to work them. Look at 612 and 575 production- more cars are being built with F1 transmissions. Getting a manual-transmission car will get more and more difficult with time. The factory will ultimately decide what Tranny setup it will support in the future, therefore manual gearboxes may well become more rare.

Since F1 trannys are all but impossible for weekend mechanics to service/repair, these cars will be harder and much more expensive to maintain. Ferrari is building cars whose repair bills will keep the Factory-Authorized Dealership network in the black for years and years to come. The current crop of new-car owners don't see what's going on, because the mindset is to 'flip' a car as soon as the newer models come out, passing the buck to the used-car buyer. The only cars worth 'collecting' that have come out in the past ten years might be the F50/Enzo and possibly the 550/575 Manual-tranny with the Daytona interior package. All others could bottom-out at 25% of their MSRP, once people see what it costs to rebuid a F1 gearbox that has been abused by multiple owners.

 

i wonder what percentage of ferrari owners work on their own cars... i personally stopped doing tune ups and oil changes when i was 18yo..i was too busy to do it anymore...one factor you have over looked is that the older ferraris are not as fun do drive and do not nearily have the performance of the newer cars...using your logical, the ferrari-colagno road bike will be worth more than all the ferrari cars in a few years because anyone can work on it !!!!no electronic parts...also ponder this,most newer cars of all makes have electronic and computer controls that cars 20years ago didnt have, but the newer cars are far more reliable than the old ones and actually cheaper to keep on the road

 

The guy I talked to at the Lambo dealership in the ATL said that the new F-Cars would require less maintenance than the older ones. I.E. timing chains instead of belts and once a year oil changes.

Lamborghini has already made these changes.

Not sure if what he said is true.

J

 

With 2006 only being 16 months away, I don't see how you get to these prices unless the bottom falls out. I have been helping a few chaps out in trying to find a 348, and it is truly a rare 348 (perhaps a dog, at that) that goes for anything south of $45K. So how do we, in 16 months, drop $10,000 or more in value? Who knows, but I don't guess I see it.

 

With any new model introduction you get the previous models dropping in price. Ferrari is now producing cars at a volume that their cars will fall into the same slide that Porsche sees with it's models. Also take a look at the U.S. economy. This "soft patch" may be more than just a patch. The U.S. market makes up a big chunk of Ferrari sales. A lot of the older cars are bought by very successful individuals but not ones that are immune from a bad economy. All it takes is a number of individuals having to liquidate some assets (the weekend Ferrari) at low prices for the sake of immediate cash flow. Couple that with a large number of buyers shying away at spending on extravagant ticket items because of the uncertainty and you can see how prices could drop. Sixteen months is a very long time away as far as this troubled economy is concerned.

Take a look at the recession of 92 and it’s effect on Ferrari market prices.

 

The recession of 1992 is not a valid comparison because the Enzo death bubble (and it's bursting) was still acting on the market, if I remember correctly.

-Daniel

 

i have said before. the computer cars will be much cheaper in the far future and the carb cars will carry a premium. the Readers for the codes, the ECM's and the Programs are all proprietery and there will be few options for aftermarket devices due to licensing, patents and copyrights. some models will be beter than others, but how many domestic , eary 80's computer crap cars do you see? not many that are not way modified and almost none have any of the computer crap or emmissions equipment on them. as the emissions laws get worse, more and more of these will be off the road, while exempt / classic cars will be spiking in value. low supply=high demand / price point. it would be super cool to buy a BUNCH of quality carb ferraris and pickle them to be around in the furure, to preserve the species, not to become permanent garage queens. my dealership freinds have been complaining for years about the over computerization of the cars , and the lack of effective training from the manufacturers. and these are Master Techs making in excess of $60k a year out of a toolbox, working on cars.

hmmm maybe i should get out of jet aircraft !!!

 

buy a bunch of carb cars??? Why would you do that??? SHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

 

...I'm sneaking thru the grass....gonna pounce on this Boxer! LOL!

 

I agree with you, thecarreaper, the access to computer codes is a problem. But, as an owner of a very computerized Toyota MR2 Turbo the marketplace will fix the problem. I’m sure an ECU manufacturer like AEM will market a plug and play ECU for any of these Ferraris. They just released one for the Viper ( http://www.aempower.com/product_ems.asp ) and also have one for the NSX. For a price of about $2-$4k. Just unplug your ECU and plug theirs right in. No wires to cut or anything else. Then just take your car to the Dyno shop and program it with your lap top. Any problems, plug in the lap top and diagnose it yourself.

That is an expensive item. But for the DIY it’s the new way to go.

I’d rather have an early 80s injection 308 that I could add an electronic ignition an injection to that a carb car any day. I’ll have better power, reliability, emissions, and fuel mileage. Keep all the old Bosh bits in a box for resale and I’d be a happy camper.