Classic car market outlook 2016

Discussion in 'Vintage Ferrari Market' started by 275GTBSaran, Dec 18, 2015.

  1. solofast

    solofast Formula 3

    Oct 8, 2007
    Autoweek has an article on the cars that have recently depreciated the most and a list of the ones that have appreciated the most...

    BMW 2002's (I loved that car had a couple when I was young and they were new) were down 33%... Lately these cars had exploded in value, jumping up 3x what a nice one was going for a few years ago so I suppose a correction was in order..

    Porsche's are up 159% over the last year...

    The silly thing is both of these cars are "mass market" cars. Other than the fact that they are really old, there's nothing that makes them particularly collectable. They made thousands of them, almost all the same spec (not a lot of options or variations).. And I see other higher production cars going for silly prices... I can understand a silly price for an Enzo era V12, but a 911 is pretty much a 911 and there's no reason for these prices to take off other than a dealer is sitting on a dozen of them and has found a few suckers and now everybody thinks the rotten (early 911's had horrible rust issues) sitting in their garage is now their retirement plan..
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  3. GWB

    GWB Karting

    Feb 18, 2007
    Houston Texas
    Full Name:
    Gavin Britz
    That is funny as truth always is funnier
  4. Timmmmmmmmmmy

    Timmmmmmmmmmy Formula 3
    Silver Subscribed

    Apr 5, 2010
    Full Name:
    Timothy Russell
    My take is that a younger audience is driving the 911 market, if you will excuse the pun. Further I think unlike other markets which are fully mature such as gullwings, 330GTC etc the 911 hasnt started to grow because they are only now being discovered as a collectable..... Just my 2 c.

    Remember what Marcel said
  5. 275GTBSaran

    275GTBSaran Formula Junior

    Mar 5, 2012
    Zurich, Switzerland
    Full Name:
    Le Monde Edmond
    I much agree with you.

    In the same breadth this can explain the explosive price of the Countach LP 400, 959 Porsche and F40 - these are the super cars of my generation who can now afford them. The countach LP 400 was on my bedroom wall when I was 8 ;)

    Even though I think it doesn't make sense personally - I see further and faster growth in these supercars and relative modern 911s (think 964, 993) relative to the growth in the 1950s and 1960s icons (250 SWB, 300SL Gullwing , Aston DB5 etc)
  6. solofast

    solofast Formula 3

    Oct 8, 2007
    yea, what Marcel said..

    But P.T. Barnum said it better..... "There's one born every minute"....
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  8. Foncool

    Foncool Formula Junior

    Oct 27, 2011
    There is another old saying in the car business. "There is an ass for every seat!"
  9. 166&456

    166&456 Formula 3

    Jul 13, 2010
    Yes! And this also brings about corrections, as that means more and more people learn the difference between mint, good, ok, poor, and *bad*. Some really bad examples out there that were recently tarted up to be sold to the highest bidder. Those bad ones pull down the average and also knock some investors out of the market - but I guess that's how it always is.
  10. ArtS

    ArtS F1 Veteran
    Rossa Subscribed Owner

    Nov 11, 2003
    Central NJ
    Prices will fall. They will fall more for some cars than others. Then, in the future, they will rise again. Either way, they will be equally fun to drive. Unless this self driving car thing catches on and driving is outlawed...

    May everyone enjoy their enjoy their cars to the fullest or acquire the car of their dreams in 2016!


    Art S.
  11. cheesey

    cheesey Formula 3

    Jun 23, 2011
    various monetary policies have resulted in obscene levels of national debt, a scenario to reduction of that debt involves the use of inflation, if that path is selected, the prices of Ferrari ( and other items of value ) will soar more than ever. Central banks will again print more money, this time the focus would be to reduce the debt with ever cheaper currency vs the failed attempts to stimulate the economy. This next round of printing currency will have greater effect on prices than during the recent rounds of quantitative easing. ( think of the all the additional 000s that the Italian Lira bank notes had just to buy some wine ) Ferrari prices with many more zeros.
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  13. LARRYH

    LARRYH F1 Veteran
    Rossa Subscribed Owner

    Jun 3, 2011
    virginia usa
    IMHO anyone that buys any collector car just because they think they can make money is going to be disappointed (sooner or later) .. I only buy cars that I truly want and in most cases have wanted for a while then finally get the opportunity to buy it,, If i make money great if not i have a car I love... I have been in the collector car market since the 90s and have probably bought kept and enjoyed about 40 cars(not at once) and only sell to make room for something else (basic rule only xx number of cars at a time ) so right now i am probably a little up in cash investment but a lot up in owning my dream cars. funny thing is there is always another car that comes along however house rule is I can only buy that if i want it more then whatever car i decide i can live without... Usually keeping cars from 2 to 10 years....many times I decide i do not want to sell so i do not buy...this is my sanity rule....
    I have found the market is soft sometimes and high other times .... of course i am not dealing in multi million dollars cars.. but still same basic concept at any price..
    SO that is my 20 plus years in a nutshell...
    buy what you want if you can afford it ....
  14. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Aug 22, 2002
    yep we haven't even had a glimpse of what inflation will do hard asset prices. soft assets are gonna be soft.
  15. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Aug 22, 2002
    I agree completely. how many cars at once is your limit? mine keeps going higher
  16. LARRYH

    LARRYH F1 Veteran
    Rossa Subscribed Owner

    Jun 3, 2011
    virginia usa
    right now around 12 to 14.. at one time i had a little over 20 and it got to be a hassle so i decided the dozen worked much better for me..
  17. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Aug 22, 2002
    yeh 12 to 14 is a good manageable number, still tough to drive them all...over 20 is fun but harder
  18. BIRA

    BIRA Formula Junior

    Jun 15, 2007
  19. NYC123

    NYC123 Formula Junior

    Jul 15, 2006

    I agree with you very much. My rule in any market is buy only what you love and have wanted to try , and always buy with the goal of buying something at a price you think it will be hard to loose money (not the goal to make). If you are always buying with margin of safety that you think you can't loose, and if you have good taste in cars you are buying important pieces in top condition, than over time you will make on a couple of them while breaking even or loosing just a little on some of the others when you are done with them. I agree the people just buying the latest hottest thing hoping to make money will usually be disappointed, especially when factoring in action selling fees or dealer bid/ask spreads. More than ever in today's market buy something to not loose , not to make.

    This is not much different than "investing" in anything stocks etc. You can do very well and be wrong 80% of the time as long as your losses are small on the 80% and your gains are big on the other 20%.
  20. ross

    ross Three Time F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed Owner

    Mar 25, 2002
    Full Name:
    this is not rocket science.
    truly special cars, made in few numbers, loved in their eras, and in perfect condition will command top dollar.

    $500k 512tr's are not the way of the future - until inflation catches up to all of us.
  21. Edward 96GTS

    Edward 96GTS F1 Rookie
    Silver Subscribed

    Nov 1, 2003
    the Enzo era cars are the blue chip cars over the long term.
  22. Jürgen Geisler

    Jürgen Geisler Formula Junior
    Silver Subscribed

    Jan 16, 2015
    Good old Europe
    Full Name:
    #44 Jürgen Geisler, Dec 27, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2015
    Quiet sure, the tendency goes for younger cars in general - surely some unique cars will always be an exception. The actually grown ups and younger generation will look out for a dream car of their childhood not a vintage car, with which they don't have an emotional relation with. That's the point, which will command the prices.

    If you have a look at the actual tendencies, for example Testarossa's, Maranello's or Porsche Turbo's the direction show exactly that way. Surely, these cars have been produced in higher numbers but there are also more car enthusiasts which can afford them and have dreamed of them when they grow up.....

    Classics, and especially the former italian supercars are always an issue of personal preferences and tastes - and sometimes formerly unloved and misunderstood cars like a Ferrari 330, a Lamborghini Espada or a Jarama meet the taste of the enthusiast only in their second spring.....


  23. cheesey

    cheesey Formula 3

    Jun 23, 2011
    the problem with more recent cars is the volume they are produced in, the cars that are in demand were produced in the low volume period generally in numbers of less than 100 or so for each model... the prices paid reflect that there are not enough cars to around for anyone that wants one... add natural attrition, that number of cars becomes even smaller... tomorrows collectibles from current production will need to go through serious attrition to retain exclusivity, today's large production may put the collector craze on hold until the herd thins... it would be a good thing as todays exotic cars would become more affordable as they go through the discarded used car phase... the lower prices would be pushed lower by the high cost of replacement parts required to maintain them... adding to their lack desirability...
  24. JohnnyRay

    JohnnyRay Formula 3
    Silver Subscribed

    Nov 2, 2014
    Central FL/NW WI
    Mine, too. But only up to 5 right now (and 3 motorcycles). My Pantera has been with me the 33 years and counting...

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