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Corona Virus--any opinions on my take on the effect on collector car world?

Discussion in 'General Automotive Discussion' started by bitzman, Mar 15, 2020.

  1. VGM911

    VGM911 Formula 3

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    Ford did not receive TARP funds (as GM and Chrysler did), but it did receive government loans. These were critical because banks were not lending during the financial crisis.

    Ford received funding from the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), which is a government program for auto, student, and other consumer loans. These were very low-cost government loans to the tune of $5.9 billion that helped Ford tip-toe past bankruptcy and overhaul their factories to bring out more fuel-efficient technology AND save a lot of jobs in the process.
     
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  3. Carnut

    Carnut F1 Rookie
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    Another one of those it started as this discussion and ended up somewhere else. In early January I sold almost all my stocks and have been sitting on a lot of cash. I had a strange feeling something bad was coming, though I had no idea the effect would be what it has been. There will always be those you who will try and capitalize on others misfortunes, I have been looking for another 4C (spider this time), and I have made some lowball offers on a few, no one has yet to say yes. I see this as a terrible situation, in PA they have shut down pretty much everything but essential business, so cars dealers sales departments are closed. I saw a interview with a local dealer who went from selling 10+ cars a day to nothing (but he still has a $255k a month overhead), so you wonder how long these people can last. Smaller restaurants, and small businesses, will probably be the hardest hit, I don't see them making it through this, and normally I would say that people do tend to forget (look at all the mistakes we keep remaking) pretty easily, but I think this one might be different and the effect of this will be felt by everyone and every industry. I am not a gambler (I find the concept silly), but I think what we see today and what we see on May 1st might change a few peoples minds. I think the effects of this have just started.
     
  4. topcarbon

    topcarbon Formula 3

    Nov 3, 2006
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    I don't believe the collector car market at the higher end and the "iconic cars" will suffer. Its the heavy leveraged
    wannabes newer cars that will be dumped onto the market. those dealers hanging onto their precious inventory for spring, waiting out a tough winter, will be cutting deals come Mat/June.
    As the job market is upside down, America closed, and lenders fearful to lend, one of the biggest buyers market is coming for those newer ferraris, lamborghinis, and mcclaren's.
     
  5. carnutdallas

    carnutdallas Formula Junior
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  7. BJK

    BJK Formula 3

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    #31 BJK, Apr 6, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 6, 2020
    Anyone who says people will 'forget' this in 6 months is smoking some good ****.
    Does the flu go away? NO! It comes back every year. There will not be a vaccine ready in 6-8 months when the world will be hit with round 2. (influenza vaccine is only 50% effective)
    "The seasonal flu that we deal with every year has a mortality of 0.1%,” he told the congressional panel, whereas coronavirus is "10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu," per STAT news.
    The world economy cannot afford round 2. Global economic devastation will be here in 1 year.
    Not trying to 'fear monger', but this virus and it's fallout is just getting started.
    Have a nice day.
     
  8. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    definitely a possibility
     
  9. jjp11

    jjp11 Karting

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    It's not like businesses will be up and running at full capacity this summer anyhow, especially social and hospitality industries. China and other countries have tried re-opening businesses and had to go on lockdown again. Containing the virus is like whack-a-mole.. You can almost guarantee this will unfold in the US this summer. Americans are going to get impatient, let their guard down, and we're going to try opening businesses too soon. People are going to continue traveling across state borders and continue spreading the virus. Unless they find a very solid way to treat this thing, prior to a vaccine being announced, I don't know the economy can get back to normal any time soon.
    Sent from my SM-G960U using FerrariChat.com mobile app
     
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  10. ChipG

    ChipG Formula 3

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  12. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
    13,215
    This McLaren F1 GTR is for sale asking $15mm. Listed 2 weeks ago and still available...it would sell in a hurry I bet if it gets that same price cut as the house.

    https://www.tomhartleyjnr.com/car/stock/1996/mclaren/f1-gtr-longtail/72137/

    He mentions the price on his IG so I'm not speculating the POA: https://www.instagram.com/p/B-KHVPrguJn/
     
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  13. topcarbon

    topcarbon Formula 3

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  14. boxerman

    boxerman F1 World Champ
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    Ive seen daytonas stretching past 800k and Ive seen Daytonas at 300k in 2010. Right now 450-500K.
    The new instant collectables limited edition Bs cars are toast, their market never made sense and it makes less sense now.

    older collectable cars, some massers astons lambos and ferraris, say pre 90 or even pre 80 may fall into the tangible asset category if that becomes a thing.
    275's Gtos etc, those are blue chip, they could fall 30% and the price would still be yuge. Theres relatively little true blue chip cars and whiel some owners will need the $$$ there will still be enough wealthy buyers for them to fecth reasonable value even if 10-30% below peak.

    Whats a 308 going to e worth though, cool cars that sell to enthusiats, not too many buyers going to be fishing there.

    As for BAT, yes its the yardstick, and the past few weeks we've seen a lot of interestign stuff come onto bat, plus a significant selection of enthusiast owned cars, ie people are looking to get rid of expensive to keep/maintan stuff.
     
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  15. Willh5080

    Willh5080 Rookie

    Apr 13, 2020
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    Thank you for the good post
     
  16. topcarbon

    topcarbon Formula 3

    Nov 3, 2006
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    Hmmm, lots of thought put into this
     
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  17. FerrariCountach

    Jul 30, 2020
    21
    In my opinion prices will rise significantly or the opposite, people are just relying on the government for money so collector cars are not exactly selling like hotcakes
     
  18. Carnut

    Carnut F1 Rookie
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    I last commented on this thread over 5 1/2 months ago, and though you did not need to be a genius to come to the conclusions that I did, I am surprised that things have gotten worse here. I do not follow the collector car world (have no interest in something I cannot take apart), but I do follow pricing a availability of cars I am interested in. Before this got really bad I was negotiating for a 4C spider (it was a 84K sticker 2018 with less than 1000 miles), but I passed because I was not sure I wanted a white one (at that time I did still have my white 458 spider). Now I see cars 20K higher that are 2015 and 2016's, the lack of inventory of new cars is causing prices to rise not fall which I thought might happen especially on cars like the 4C. I may end up buying another Abarth to play with until I can find a 4C that is right for what I'm planning to for it.
     
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  19. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
    13,215
    Are the higher asking prices translating to higher sales prices? I can't see why a buyer would all of a sudden be willing to pay more for something. I'm seeing the same with cars among all price ranges. Who in the world is driving more now than before COVID? I work from home more than 50% of the time now, because of COVID, previously 0%. I'm no longer looking to buy a new daily driver. I think the people that actually are buying cars and homes right now are the same FOMO people that bought up all the toilet paper...once they get that this particular purchasing soon I think it goes back down. They also bought up a ton of bicycles for no reason.
     
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  20. Carnut

    Carnut F1 Rookie
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    The dealers I know tell me yes they are. I don't understand the logic in that either.
     
  21. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
    13,215
    I found part of the reason. People that were not in a position to buy a new or used vehicle recently got handouts and went out and bought cars. And didn't pay rent instead (and can't get evicted).

    https://www.cbs58.com/news/las-vegas-entertainers-fear-dire-straits-as-weeks-of-unemployment-turn-to-months

     
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  22. carnutdallas

    carnutdallas Formula Junior
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    #45 carnutdallas, Aug 19, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2020
    Yep! If government was giving out money - increased unemployment stipend, it should have gone to landlords directly!! May not sound right to sane minds on here that work hard for a living - not generalizing every human, but most people buying new cars and not paying rent do not make up the majority of the minds and work ethic here on Fchat.

    The storm of default is brewing

    Edit: I read full article and the car / rv stuff was a small part of what I was commenting on. The meat of the article is really about a dire economic situation at full boil in Vegas. That is a slice of what is brewing nationally. Pretty scary stuff. Economies require interaction. Hiding behind a mask and not working on all levels for fear of maybe getting sick will do so much greater harm than the virus ever will. Las Vegas is a picture of what is to come. Will cars and values continue to climb. Yes, will a correction come, YES! What level of collector car correction is anyone’s guess. The rich - super rich are getting richer!! Amazon or Tesla from May of 2019 to now is a huge indication of that. Crazy money.... but if Vegas continues to falter, will they tip the scales screaming in the other direction??


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  23. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
    13,215
    I bet you this guy paid full retail on this Huracan during COVID. The PPP money should have paid employees directly, for similar reasons as you state. I'm not surprised by this misuse of funds but somewhat at how much cars ended up being in demand when so many vacation places are closed...

    https://abc7.com/florida-man-david-hines-lamborghini-huracn-evo-ppp/6340991/
     
  24. technom3

    technom3 F1 Veteran
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    That's an incredibly small amount of people who have and would do it.

    What's happening in the car biz makes little sense. But... People taking 1200 dollars to go buy a car isn't really a good theory.

    Showing unemployment as your source of income isn't going to help you get a loan...

    Being in loan forbearance isn't good on the ole credit report.

    My best working theory is that people aren't "shopping" and buying random crap they don't need at random stores on the weekend. People aren't spending money on massages... Work out classes and protein powder etc... (I Know that's alot of protein powder) spending less on fuel. Eating out less etc...

    And the big one is... People canceled their 3k dollar vacations. And when you pole all of that up... It becomes a decent amount of money and people like to spend money when they have it.
     
  25. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
    13,215
    Actually I think you're onto something when you mentioned the mortgage forbearance. It won't hurt ones credit if they opt for it.

    https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/will-a-mortgage-deferment-hurt-my-credit/

    I think what it is now is some people with mortgages opting out paying that and freeing up money for a new car, too (who knows how many). Not just renters not paying rent. I can see discretionary income from vacations to Disney etc now being repurposed, too.
     
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  26. technom3

    technom3 F1 Veteran
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    My understanding and I could absolutely be wrong that if you are in forbearance it will show that. It will be reported. Your score will not be affected. BUT there is a note on your credit that you are in the forbearance program under the CARES act. The link you sent singles out credit score but doesn't make much mention of say notes or status sort of a thing.

    I would think everyone in the lending world would like to know if you aren't paying your current bills before you sign up for more. And you can appease the common person by saying your score isnt affected... But we are also not going to let you run out and get 2 new cars a bedroom set 3 new credit cards and monkey...

    After all... They want to be paid back before you obligate yourself further.
     
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